Overall Standings
^Zou (10-4-1) GB:-
Smurfs (9-6) GB: 1.5
#Wannabees (7-6-2) GB: 2.5
#Inoculators (8-7) GB: 2.5
------------------------------------
PBC (7-7-1) GB: 3
Saints (7-8) GB: 3.5
JLT (6-9) GB: 4.5
Not Good (3-10-2) GB: 6.5
^ Zou has clinched playoff berth
# Wannabees own tie-breaker over Inoculators
Old Kids
Smurfs (9-6) GB: -
Inoculators (8-7) GB: 1
PBC (7-7-1) GB: 1.5
Saints (7-8) GB: 2
Young Kids
^Zou (10-4-1) GB: -
Wannabees (7-6-2) GB: 2.5
JLT (6-9) GB: 4.5
Not Good (3-10-2) GB: 6.5
^ Won division
Baring some unexpected results from tonight’s game (including Akers and Westbrook combining for 55 points, Philadelphia’s defense losing points, McNabb scoring 67 points) this week’s results seem set. The updated standings are above. Here are some quick thoughts and what each team needs next week.
First, it may be better to finish fifth and miss the playoffs than to be the fourth seed in the playoffs if you are the Inoculators or PBC. Neither team has great playoff keepers, but does have some very good options for 2009 keepers. Add those keepers and a possible number one overall pick and things look pretty good for either of those teams. Finishing fourth and not having a pick higher than fifth overall in next year’s draft does not seem as enticing. Then again, if you can somehow manage to pull out a championship…
Second, the Chiefs suck.
Third – Greatest. Column. Ever. (slightly overstated) Excerpt from Joe Posnanski’s column:
“OK, I’m convinced now. Fire everybody. Fire Carl. Fire Herm. Fire Gunther. Fire the players. After that game, there’s really nothing to say but: Fire them all. And they should not stop there. The Chiefs should hire Greg Robinson back just so they can fire him again. They should call John Mackovic just to remind him that he got fired. They should bring in Donald Trump to walk through Arrowhead’s coaches offices and the locker room, just so everyone will fully understand what’s going on.”
Finally, line of the night from Keith Olbermann: "At Kansas City, they had to play, they sold tickets."
Zou (Clinched playoff berth and Young Kids division)
A win next week locks up the number one seed and the first pick in the Championship draft. The Zou has the Wannabees and Not Good left on his schedule.
Smurfs
A win and an Inoculators loss clinches the Old Kids division and a subsequent playoff spot next week. A win this week or next gains the Smurfs a playoff spot. The Smurfs need to win out and the Zou to lose out in order to earn the number one seed. Remaining schedule: vs. PBC, vs. Inoculators
Wannabees
A win and a PBC loss next week clinches a wildcard spot. The Wannabees cannot win their division. The Wannabees remaining schedule includes The Zou next week and Not Good in Week 17.
Inoculators
A win and a PBC loss next week clinches a wildcard spot. The Inoculators can win the division and the number two seed by winning out. Inoculators remaining schedule: vs. Saints, vs. Smurfs
PBC
Needs two wins and at least one loss from either the Wannabees or Inoculators OR one win and two losses from either the Wannabees or Inoculators. PBC can win the division by winning out, the Smurfs losing out and the Inoculators losing to the Saints. Remaining schedule: vs. Smurfs, vs. Saints
JLT (Eliminated from playoff contention)
JLT is eliminated because there is no scenario where the Inoculators and PBC lose out and the Saints lose a game (the Saints play the Inoculators and PBC to end the season). JLT can earn the first pick in the Consolation in a myriad of scenarios.
Not Good (Eliminated from playoff contention)
Joel is eliminated from the playoffs and cannot gain the top pick in the Consolation draft.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
5 Observations: Kansas Football
Observation #1: Kansas is slow, small and lacks depth.
Other than that, we’re just fine. From watching Kansas games this season, I’d say our biggest weakness is speed. Lack of speed killed us (besides all the injuries) against the Big XII South. Size and lack of depth hurt us in our loss to Nebraska. KU does have some decent speed coming up, though.
2009 Recruiting Class (as of 12/10/08)
Prinz Kande (HS) – Safety – 4.5
Darian Kelly (HS) – Safety – 4.5
Dexter Linton (HS) – Safety – 4.42
Calvin Rubles (JC) – Cornerback – 4.4
Deshaun Sands (HS) – Running back – 4.5
Tyrone Sellers (HS) – Defensive End – 4.57
Jacoby Thomas (HS) – Defensive End – 4.71
2008 Recruiting Class
Lubbock Smith – Cornerback – 4.4
Daymond Patterson – WR/DB – 4.43
Josh Richardson – Linebacker – 4.45
Rod Harris – Wide Reciever – 4.5
Corrigan Powell – Cornerback – 4.5
Sean Ransburg – Athlete – 4.5
Jocques Crawford – Running Back – 4.5
D.J. Marshall – Defensive End – 4.75
Angus Quigley (4.5-40) has been practicing at linebacker the last few days so that could be something we see next season.
Of course, none of these 40 times mean anything if they can’t play football (see: Jocques Crawford). But Kansas really needs to take these last few weeks of recruiting and land some guys with some speed. They do have some guys who are interested in Kansas who would be interesting. Ronnie Wingo, the second rated athlete in the class, is visiting Kansas next week (he’ also visiting MU and Illinois). I doubt he chooses KU, but you never know.
Another issue is Kansas doesn’t have anyone with “elite” speed. They do not have that Talib/Maclin-type (And Erik, I know Maclin is faster than Talib and should never be put in the same sentence – I’ll admit that if you will admit that Talib has an excellent shot at winning the NFC Defensive Rookie of the Year). Speaking of Talib…
Observation #2: Kansas must have an elite athlete in order to compete for a Big XII title.
Kansas lacks top level talent. We are loaded with guys who could be drafted in round four through seven of the NFL draft, but we don’t have a single guy on this roster (as of now) who would be selected on day one of the draft. There is no way Kansas, or any Big XII team for that matter, can compete without at least one elite talent on their roster. We saw the difference this season what not having Talib and Collins had.
I appreciate Mark Mangino’s recruiting style giving that his program is in the middle of nowhere Kansas. But he has got to find a way to lure some top level talent to Kansas. The basketball team has done it – granted they have a bit of a tradition to recruit on – so it is possible. Either way, we need some more 4 and 5 start level talent on this team. Not a ton, but more than we have now.
Observation #3: The South Florida and Nebraska losses killed us.
Consider this on its own: A victory over Nebraska would have meant we would have had the right to get slaughtered by OU, not Missouri. Do with that what you want, but we are not far out from being in the BCS again.
The South Florida loss probably cost us New Years Day bowl. Flip those two games and Kansas is 9-3 (9-4 if you want to include a loss to OU in the Championship game). Erik will probably say that MU is 9-4 and is playing on Dec. 29 so KU would not have had a New Years Day bowl. What Erik does not know is that Kansas’ AD is the craziest man alive and would have pulled it out somehow. Heck, that’s how we got to the Orange Bowl last year.
Observation #4: Kansas has an excellent shot at winning the Big XII North in 2009.
It isn’t so much about who returns as much as it is what everyone else loses. We discussed Missouri’s losses earlier and I fully expect them to go 7-5 next year. Texas Tech will lose Harrell and Crabtree, OU will lose Bradford, four-fifths of their offensive line, Iglesias and two other starting wide outs, and both safeties next season. Texas loses both wide receivers, four-fifths of their offensive line, six defensive starters and, maybe, Colt McCoy (though he says he’s coming back, I don’t believe him – at least not yet). Nebraska loses seven starters on offense (including Ganz, Lucky and Swift) and five starters on defense.
You can look at Kansas and say they lose a lot too, which they do. All three linebackers, both ends, Dexton Fields, both guards and the center are all gone after this season. The difference is none of those guys played this season almost at all due to injury.
Ressing, Sharp, Briscoe, and Meier all return next season. Darrell Stuckey comes back next season along with the entire secondary (all of whom were freshmen or sophomores this season, minus Thornton who missed several games with an injury) Maxwell Onyegbule and Jake Laptad saw most of the action at defensive end in the second half of the season and will be back.
Really, the core of this team is very young and they went 7-5 while being riddled with injuries and playing three teams with at least 11 wins and every ranked team in the conference minus Oklahoma State.
The key for next season is to see how much Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas and Nebraska fall off. If Kansas can get two of those games back (likely the Texas Tech and Nebraska games), then Kansas is in the Big XII title game next year.
Observation #5: What the hell is going to happen in 2010?
The entire core of Kansas football leaves after next season. Reesing, Briscoe, Meier and Stuckey are all gone. When they leave, we are going to see the true test of Mark Mangino and if Kansas is really a program that’s going to compete in the Big XII for a while or if the last few seasons have been something of a “We had a tiny quarterback that always found ways to win” period in KU history.
To be honest, MU is going to face that question this season. Was their success the product of being lucky and hitting on a quarterback that knew how to win or was it the beginning of a pattern of success for Pinkel and Mizzou.
I hope both Kansas and Mizzou are entering a period where they will be competitive every season. Take it from a guy who has been bored beating the crap out of MU in basketball year after year. Trust me, it is much more fun when the other team is good to.
Other than that, we’re just fine. From watching Kansas games this season, I’d say our biggest weakness is speed. Lack of speed killed us (besides all the injuries) against the Big XII South. Size and lack of depth hurt us in our loss to Nebraska. KU does have some decent speed coming up, though.
2009 Recruiting Class (as of 12/10/08)
Prinz Kande (HS) – Safety – 4.5
Darian Kelly (HS) – Safety – 4.5
Dexter Linton (HS) – Safety – 4.42
Calvin Rubles (JC) – Cornerback – 4.4
Deshaun Sands (HS) – Running back – 4.5
Tyrone Sellers (HS) – Defensive End – 4.57
Jacoby Thomas (HS) – Defensive End – 4.71
2008 Recruiting Class
Lubbock Smith – Cornerback – 4.4
Daymond Patterson – WR/DB – 4.43
Josh Richardson – Linebacker – 4.45
Rod Harris – Wide Reciever – 4.5
Corrigan Powell – Cornerback – 4.5
Sean Ransburg – Athlete – 4.5
Jocques Crawford – Running Back – 4.5
D.J. Marshall – Defensive End – 4.75
Angus Quigley (4.5-40) has been practicing at linebacker the last few days so that could be something we see next season.
Of course, none of these 40 times mean anything if they can’t play football (see: Jocques Crawford). But Kansas really needs to take these last few weeks of recruiting and land some guys with some speed. They do have some guys who are interested in Kansas who would be interesting. Ronnie Wingo, the second rated athlete in the class, is visiting Kansas next week (he’ also visiting MU and Illinois). I doubt he chooses KU, but you never know.
Another issue is Kansas doesn’t have anyone with “elite” speed. They do not have that Talib/Maclin-type (And Erik, I know Maclin is faster than Talib and should never be put in the same sentence – I’ll admit that if you will admit that Talib has an excellent shot at winning the NFC Defensive Rookie of the Year). Speaking of Talib…
Observation #2: Kansas must have an elite athlete in order to compete for a Big XII title.
Kansas lacks top level talent. We are loaded with guys who could be drafted in round four through seven of the NFL draft, but we don’t have a single guy on this roster (as of now) who would be selected on day one of the draft. There is no way Kansas, or any Big XII team for that matter, can compete without at least one elite talent on their roster. We saw the difference this season what not having Talib and Collins had.
I appreciate Mark Mangino’s recruiting style giving that his program is in the middle of nowhere Kansas. But he has got to find a way to lure some top level talent to Kansas. The basketball team has done it – granted they have a bit of a tradition to recruit on – so it is possible. Either way, we need some more 4 and 5 start level talent on this team. Not a ton, but more than we have now.
Observation #3: The South Florida and Nebraska losses killed us.
Consider this on its own: A victory over Nebraska would have meant we would have had the right to get slaughtered by OU, not Missouri. Do with that what you want, but we are not far out from being in the BCS again.
The South Florida loss probably cost us New Years Day bowl. Flip those two games and Kansas is 9-3 (9-4 if you want to include a loss to OU in the Championship game). Erik will probably say that MU is 9-4 and is playing on Dec. 29 so KU would not have had a New Years Day bowl. What Erik does not know is that Kansas’ AD is the craziest man alive and would have pulled it out somehow. Heck, that’s how we got to the Orange Bowl last year.
Observation #4: Kansas has an excellent shot at winning the Big XII North in 2009.
It isn’t so much about who returns as much as it is what everyone else loses. We discussed Missouri’s losses earlier and I fully expect them to go 7-5 next year. Texas Tech will lose Harrell and Crabtree, OU will lose Bradford, four-fifths of their offensive line, Iglesias and two other starting wide outs, and both safeties next season. Texas loses both wide receivers, four-fifths of their offensive line, six defensive starters and, maybe, Colt McCoy (though he says he’s coming back, I don’t believe him – at least not yet). Nebraska loses seven starters on offense (including Ganz, Lucky and Swift) and five starters on defense.
You can look at Kansas and say they lose a lot too, which they do. All three linebackers, both ends, Dexton Fields, both guards and the center are all gone after this season. The difference is none of those guys played this season almost at all due to injury.
Ressing, Sharp, Briscoe, and Meier all return next season. Darrell Stuckey comes back next season along with the entire secondary (all of whom were freshmen or sophomores this season, minus Thornton who missed several games with an injury) Maxwell Onyegbule and Jake Laptad saw most of the action at defensive end in the second half of the season and will be back.
Really, the core of this team is very young and they went 7-5 while being riddled with injuries and playing three teams with at least 11 wins and every ranked team in the conference minus Oklahoma State.
The key for next season is to see how much Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas and Nebraska fall off. If Kansas can get two of those games back (likely the Texas Tech and Nebraska games), then Kansas is in the Big XII title game next year.
Observation #5: What the hell is going to happen in 2010?
The entire core of Kansas football leaves after next season. Reesing, Briscoe, Meier and Stuckey are all gone. When they leave, we are going to see the true test of Mark Mangino and if Kansas is really a program that’s going to compete in the Big XII for a while or if the last few seasons have been something of a “We had a tiny quarterback that always found ways to win” period in KU history.
To be honest, MU is going to face that question this season. Was their success the product of being lucky and hitting on a quarterback that knew how to win or was it the beginning of a pattern of success for Pinkel and Mizzou.
I hope both Kansas and Mizzou are entering a period where they will be competitive every season. Take it from a guy who has been bored beating the crap out of MU in basketball year after year. Trust me, it is much more fun when the other team is good to.
Playoff Race Scenarios
Playoff Standings
Zou: 9-4-1; 1413 pts
Smurfs: 9-5; 1376 pts
PBC: 7-6-1; 1384 pts
Wannabees: 6-6-2; 1320 pts
--------------------------------------
Inoc: 7-7; 1306 pts
JLT: 6-8; 1334 pts
Saints: 6-8; 1312 pts
NG: 3-9-2; 1148
Wildcard Standings
PBC 7-6-1 GB: -
^Wannabees 6-6-2 GB: -
^Inoculators 7-7 GB: -
JLT 6-8 GB: 1
Saints 6-8 GB: 1
^ The Wannabees hold the tie-breaker over the Inoculators by having scored 14 more fantasy points this season.
Old Kids Division Race
Smurfs: 9-5 GB: -
PBC: 7-6-1 GB: 1.5
Inoc.: 7-7 GB: 2
Saints: 6-8 GB: 3
Young Kids Division Race
Zou: 9-4-1 GB: -
Wannabees: 6-6-2 GB: 2.5
JLT: eliminated
NG: eliminated
The Eliminated: Not Good
Joel is done. While technically “Not Good” still has a shot at the playoffs, the only scenario that sees Joel making the playoffs is he won out, managed a tie for forth place due to epic collapses from everyone above him, and scored enough points to win the tie-breaker. This isn’t happening.
On The Fence of Contention: JLT and Saints
Both JLT (vs Zou) and Saints (vs Smurfs) have what would appear to be certain losses this week. A loss for either team would almost certainly eliminate them from contention, but there are still reasonable scenarios they either of them makes the playoffs. We’ll take a stronger look at each team if either wins their matchup.
The Locks: Krunk Smurfs and The Zou
At this point, there are two virtual locks (though they are not officially in the playoffs – yet): The Zou and Krunk Smurfs.
At least one win between now and the end of the season for Erik and he is in the playoffs. The win would clinch a playoff spot and his division.
The Smurfs’ situation is a little less decided compared to the Zou when it comes to winning his division, but Jason is still in very good shape. The Smurfs can also clinch a playoff spot with a win and an Inoculators loss.
Erik’s playoff clinching scenario for Week 15: A win OR an Inoculators/Wannabees loss
Erik’s division clinching scenario for Week 15: A win OR a Wannabees loss
Jason’s playoff clinching scenario for Week 15: A win AND an Inoculators/Wannabees loss
Wildcards: PBC, Wannabees, Inoculators
Only half-a-game separates the third seed Crushers from both the Wannabees and Inoculators, so things are tight to say the least. Of course, what everybody needs is for them to win and everyone else to lose, but here are some specific things each team should look for next week.
PBC
Andrew needs to view this week as a “win and in” situation. First, Andrew shouldn’t worry about JLT and the Saints, because any scenario where Andrew is tied or is just a half a game up on him would mean he would be out either of wildcard spots. With this understood, should Andrew beat the Inoculators this week, he would have all but locked down a playoff spot. A win and things elsewhere going down as projected, the standings would look like this (this assumes WW beats Joel):
PBC (8-6-1) GB: -
WW (7-6-2) GB: .5
KCI (7-8) GB: 1.5
Granted, Andrew would have a matchup against the Smurfs in Week 16, but he would finish the season against the Saints while the Inoculators face the Smurfs that week.
A loss would make things more complicated. Here’s what the standings would look in that case:
WW (7-6-2) GB: -
KCI (8-7) GB: -
PBC (7-7-1) GB: .5
This would put a tremendous amount of pressure on Andrew to beat the Smurfs in Week 16. In fact, a loss to Jason and KCI (vs Saints) and Wannabees (vs Zou) wins would eliminate Andrew from the playoffs.
There is, of course, a scenario where Andrew wins the division, but that is looking unlikely on the moment. Andrew’s focus should be on beating the Inoculators this weekend.
Wannabees
Two things are on the Wannabees agenda: Don’t get upset and keep his points lead.
An upset loss to Joel would be terrible for Jeff. While it would still be possible for him to make the playoffs, it would be a huge hit to his chances.
The biggest thing that he needs to keep on his mind is his points lead on the Inoculators. It is that number that has him in the position he is in now. He needs to makes sure he maintains that number.
Inoculators
As close as the Inoculators are to the playoffs, Ben is still very, very far away. A win this week guarantees the Inoculators little and Ben also has the toughest of the Week 17 matchups. I think the Inoculators are more likely to be out of the playoffs than in.
Zou: 9-4-1; 1413 pts
Smurfs: 9-5; 1376 pts
PBC: 7-6-1; 1384 pts
Wannabees: 6-6-2; 1320 pts
--------------------------------------
Inoc: 7-7; 1306 pts
JLT: 6-8; 1334 pts
Saints: 6-8; 1312 pts
NG: 3-9-2; 1148
Wildcard Standings
PBC 7-6-1 GB: -
^Wannabees 6-6-2 GB: -
^Inoculators 7-7 GB: -
JLT 6-8 GB: 1
Saints 6-8 GB: 1
^ The Wannabees hold the tie-breaker over the Inoculators by having scored 14 more fantasy points this season.
Old Kids Division Race
Smurfs: 9-5 GB: -
PBC: 7-6-1 GB: 1.5
Inoc.: 7-7 GB: 2
Saints: 6-8 GB: 3
Young Kids Division Race
Zou: 9-4-1 GB: -
Wannabees: 6-6-2 GB: 2.5
JLT: eliminated
NG: eliminated
The Eliminated: Not Good
Joel is done. While technically “Not Good” still has a shot at the playoffs, the only scenario that sees Joel making the playoffs is he won out, managed a tie for forth place due to epic collapses from everyone above him, and scored enough points to win the tie-breaker. This isn’t happening.
On The Fence of Contention: JLT and Saints
Both JLT (vs Zou) and Saints (vs Smurfs) have what would appear to be certain losses this week. A loss for either team would almost certainly eliminate them from contention, but there are still reasonable scenarios they either of them makes the playoffs. We’ll take a stronger look at each team if either wins their matchup.
The Locks: Krunk Smurfs and The Zou
At this point, there are two virtual locks (though they are not officially in the playoffs – yet): The Zou and Krunk Smurfs.
At least one win between now and the end of the season for Erik and he is in the playoffs. The win would clinch a playoff spot and his division.
The Smurfs’ situation is a little less decided compared to the Zou when it comes to winning his division, but Jason is still in very good shape. The Smurfs can also clinch a playoff spot with a win and an Inoculators loss.
Erik’s playoff clinching scenario for Week 15: A win OR an Inoculators/Wannabees loss
Erik’s division clinching scenario for Week 15: A win OR a Wannabees loss
Jason’s playoff clinching scenario for Week 15: A win AND an Inoculators/Wannabees loss
Wildcards: PBC, Wannabees, Inoculators
Only half-a-game separates the third seed Crushers from both the Wannabees and Inoculators, so things are tight to say the least. Of course, what everybody needs is for them to win and everyone else to lose, but here are some specific things each team should look for next week.
PBC
Andrew needs to view this week as a “win and in” situation. First, Andrew shouldn’t worry about JLT and the Saints, because any scenario where Andrew is tied or is just a half a game up on him would mean he would be out either of wildcard spots. With this understood, should Andrew beat the Inoculators this week, he would have all but locked down a playoff spot. A win and things elsewhere going down as projected, the standings would look like this (this assumes WW beats Joel):
PBC (8-6-1) GB: -
WW (7-6-2) GB: .5
KCI (7-8) GB: 1.5
Granted, Andrew would have a matchup against the Smurfs in Week 16, but he would finish the season against the Saints while the Inoculators face the Smurfs that week.
A loss would make things more complicated. Here’s what the standings would look in that case:
WW (7-6-2) GB: -
KCI (8-7) GB: -
PBC (7-7-1) GB: .5
This would put a tremendous amount of pressure on Andrew to beat the Smurfs in Week 16. In fact, a loss to Jason and KCI (vs Saints) and Wannabees (vs Zou) wins would eliminate Andrew from the playoffs.
There is, of course, a scenario where Andrew wins the division, but that is looking unlikely on the moment. Andrew’s focus should be on beating the Inoculators this weekend.
Wannabees
Two things are on the Wannabees agenda: Don’t get upset and keep his points lead.
An upset loss to Joel would be terrible for Jeff. While it would still be possible for him to make the playoffs, it would be a huge hit to his chances.
The biggest thing that he needs to keep on his mind is his points lead on the Inoculators. It is that number that has him in the position he is in now. He needs to makes sure he maintains that number.
Inoculators
As close as the Inoculators are to the playoffs, Ben is still very, very far away. A win this week guarantees the Inoculators little and Ben also has the toughest of the Week 17 matchups. I think the Inoculators are more likely to be out of the playoffs than in.
Sunday, December 7, 2008
5 Observations: Missouri football
Note: I will be writing something similar about KU – and it won’t be happy either – so stay calm, Erik. But feel free to write something if you want.
Observation #1 – Missouri’s season seemed to end after the win over Nebraska.
Missouri beat Nebraska on the road for the first time since Jesus walked the earth to propel MU to a 5-0 start. From that point on, MU was 4-4 and seemed to get worse as the season progressed.
4 Wins
Colorado (5-7): 58-0
Baylor (4-8): 31-28
Kansas St. (5-7): 41-24
Iowa St. (2-10): 52-20
4 Losses
Oklahoma St. (9-3): 28-23
Texas (11-1): 56-31
Kansas (7-5): 40-37
Oklahoma (12-1): 62-21
This isn’t a good sign for Missouri. At least not for a team that was suppose to compete for a National Title. For a team that was suppose get over the big game hurdle and win the Big XII. For a team that was on the fast track to national prominence. What they looked like was a team stuck somewhere between being wildly over-hyped and dreadfully underachieving. Or maybe they were both, I honestly don’t know.
Missouri had no business losing to OKST at home or to a depleted Kansas team on a neutral field. And a team ranked as high as third in the nation should pose a better fight in a conference championship game than their deplorable 62-21 loss to Oklahoma.
Observation #2 – Thinks are not looking good for the 2009 season.
Gary Pinkel’s offensive philosophy almost got him fired a few years ago. My understanding of the story is that Pinkel made the decision to hand over the offense to Christiansen and let him run the spread the season everyone felt was Pinkel was at the end of his rope at MU. Chrisiansen built an offense that, at the very least, made Mizzou a respectable program and gave them some light in the national scene. But Christiansen isn’t the only guy leaving this season, so is half of the offense.
Chase Daniel = Graduated
Chase Coffman = Graduated
Jeremy Maclin = Likely going to the NFL
Tommy Saunders = Graduated
Colin Brown = Graduated
Ryan Madison = Graduated
That’s six offensive starters, three of whom are the core of the offensive boom they’ve experienced the last two seasons, who will be gone in 2009. Who is the playmaker on this team next season?
Derrick Washington was terrible in big games. In the three key games MU played – Oklahoma St., Texas and Oklahoma (I do not count the KU game because nothing could be gained or lost from winning or losing at the time it was played) – Washington rushed for a combined 57 yards on 25 carries (2.28 ypc). If you throw in the Kansas game, he rushed for 111 yards on 36 carries (3.08 ypc). You can interpret this in many ways, but it is clear that MU’s rushing game was non-existent in big games this season.
Blaine Gabbert threw 13 passes this season. As with all young quarterbacks, there will be a learning curve there, but that learning curve is going to happen with Jared Perry and Danario Alexander – who combined this season for fewer catches than Tommy Saunders – as his primary targets and not Jeremy Maclin (presumably) and Chase Coffman.
Andrew Jones is a highly touted tight end recruit who caught 18 passes this season, but are you going to center your entire passing game on a somewhat raw sophomore tight end?
So with no weapons and a head coach whose initial offensive inclination is to pound it out and hope for the best, I don’t see things going well next season.
The Tigers do not have the kind of talent that is ready to replace Daniel, Maclin, Coffman and company anyway. MU will lose 12 of 22 starters to graduation at the end of the season with the prospects of Jeremy Maclin (#2 WR according to ESPN), Sean Weatherspoon (#3 OLB according to ESPN) and Jaron Baston (likely to stay, but is rising draft boards quickly) going pro. This leaves MU replacing 14 starters at least. MU, like most universities not named USC, cannot replace 14 starters, and the core of its most successful teams in recent history, and expect to win 9-plus games next season.
Observation #3 – Mizzou’s success during the Chase Daniel Era (2006-2008).
“Big XII Football since 2006.”
Overall Record (Includes Big XII Championship and Bowl games)
1. OU: 34-7
2. UT: 31-7
3. TT: 28-10
4. MU: 29-11
5. KU: 25-12
Overall Regular Season Conference Record
1. OU: 20-4
2. UT: 18-6
3. MU: 16-8
4. TT: 15-9
5. KU: 14-10
BCS Bowls
OU: 3 bids (2006-2008)
KU: 1 bid (2007)
UT: 1 bid (2008)
Bowls (2008 bids included)
1. UT: 3 bids (Won Alamo Bowl, Won Holiday Bowl)
2. TT: 3 bids (Won Insight Bowl, Won Gator Bowl)
3. OSU: 3 bids (Won Independence Bowl, Won Insight Bowl)
4. MU: 3 bids (Lost Sun Bowl, Won Cotton Bowl)
5. OU: 3 bids (Lost Fiesta Bowl twice)
Note: The five listed schools and Kansas were the only schools who were bowl eligible all three seasons.
Record Against Ranked Teams (Includes Big XII Championship game and Bowls)
1. OU: 11-5 (8-5 vs Top 20; 2-4 vs Top 10)
2. UT: 7-3 (7-3 vs Top 20; 2-3 vs Top 10)
3. MU: 5-6 (2-6 vs Top 20; 1-4 vs Top 10)
4. TT: 5-7 (4-5 vs Top 20; 3-2 vs Top 10)
5. KU: 3-6 (2-5 vs Top 20; 1-4 vs Top 10)
Conference Titles
OU: 3 (2006 - 2008)
Division Titles
OU: 3 (Outright title in 2006 and 2007, shared title with TEX and TT in 2008)
NEB: 2 (Outright title in 2006, shared title with MU in 2008)
MU: 2 (Shared title with KU in 2007, shared title with Nebraska in 2008)
KU: 1 (Shared title with MU in 2007)
TEX: 1 (Shared title with OU and TT in 2008)
TT: 1 (Shared title with OU and TEX in 2008)
Basically what MU has is an 8, 12 and 9 win seasons (one game left of 2008), three bowl bids (one win and another game upcoming) and two Big XII Championship game appearances (and two bad losses to OU). MU was also tied for the third most wins against ranked opponents. Clearly it has been a good time to be an MU fan.
Observation #4: Missouri (and its fans) have misinterpreted their success.
“We have not arrived. I’ve said that … often.” – Gary Pinkel, Head Coach
“Oklahoma is Big 12 champ again, and Missouri again gets to claim runner-up status, even though we realize the distance between No. 1 and No. 2 is more like No. 1 and No. 5.” – Jason Whitlock, KC Star
“You have to figure that Missouri, when it came down to it, just wasn’t that good a football team.” – Joe Posnanski, KC Star
“Mizzou has been punted back into its inglorious past, when its teams had no chance of consistently competing against the sport's elite.” – Bernie Miklasz, St. Louis Post-Dispatch
Now, the situation isn’t as bad as Mr. Miklasz explains it, but part of the reason Miklasz writes these things is because everyone falsely believed Missouri was a championship contender. They’re not; not even close. It seems that Missouri fans were deceived by the point spreads MU put over weak opponents, the athleticism of Jeremy Maclin and their victories over rebuilding/underachieving Nebraska teams. But Texas and Oklahoma showed Missouri fans what Championship teams look like and Missouri is nowhere near that – and if they were, that window is closed now.
Chase Daniel is a good example of Missouri’s season. Daniel had a 15-to-1 TD/INT ratio after the Nebraska game (this means games against such powerhouses as Buffalo, SE Missouri State, Nevada and a “5-7 in the Big 10” Illinois team) and was the Heisman frontrunner. From that point on, Daniel threw at least one interception in each game, finishing with 22 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and a few key fumbles. The kid turned into a turnover machine. There are only 7 quarterbacks in the FBS with more interceptions than Daniel. I’m not saying Daniel sucks, he’s been an excellent college quarterback and will likely end his career with more than 100 career touchdowns, but he’s been very average these last eight weeks and his teams has suffered tremendously for it.
Observation #5: Missouri and Kansas are the same programs.
Yell and scream about that all you want Tigers fans, but it’s true.
Observation #1 – Missouri’s season seemed to end after the win over Nebraska.
Missouri beat Nebraska on the road for the first time since Jesus walked the earth to propel MU to a 5-0 start. From that point on, MU was 4-4 and seemed to get worse as the season progressed.
4 Wins
Colorado (5-7): 58-0
Baylor (4-8): 31-28
Kansas St. (5-7): 41-24
Iowa St. (2-10): 52-20
4 Losses
Oklahoma St. (9-3): 28-23
Texas (11-1): 56-31
Kansas (7-5): 40-37
Oklahoma (12-1): 62-21
This isn’t a good sign for Missouri. At least not for a team that was suppose to compete for a National Title. For a team that was suppose get over the big game hurdle and win the Big XII. For a team that was on the fast track to national prominence. What they looked like was a team stuck somewhere between being wildly over-hyped and dreadfully underachieving. Or maybe they were both, I honestly don’t know.
Missouri had no business losing to OKST at home or to a depleted Kansas team on a neutral field. And a team ranked as high as third in the nation should pose a better fight in a conference championship game than their deplorable 62-21 loss to Oklahoma.
Observation #2 – Thinks are not looking good for the 2009 season.
Gary Pinkel’s offensive philosophy almost got him fired a few years ago. My understanding of the story is that Pinkel made the decision to hand over the offense to Christiansen and let him run the spread the season everyone felt was Pinkel was at the end of his rope at MU. Chrisiansen built an offense that, at the very least, made Mizzou a respectable program and gave them some light in the national scene. But Christiansen isn’t the only guy leaving this season, so is half of the offense.
Chase Daniel = Graduated
Chase Coffman = Graduated
Jeremy Maclin = Likely going to the NFL
Tommy Saunders = Graduated
Colin Brown = Graduated
Ryan Madison = Graduated
That’s six offensive starters, three of whom are the core of the offensive boom they’ve experienced the last two seasons, who will be gone in 2009. Who is the playmaker on this team next season?
Derrick Washington was terrible in big games. In the three key games MU played – Oklahoma St., Texas and Oklahoma (I do not count the KU game because nothing could be gained or lost from winning or losing at the time it was played) – Washington rushed for a combined 57 yards on 25 carries (2.28 ypc). If you throw in the Kansas game, he rushed for 111 yards on 36 carries (3.08 ypc). You can interpret this in many ways, but it is clear that MU’s rushing game was non-existent in big games this season.
Blaine Gabbert threw 13 passes this season. As with all young quarterbacks, there will be a learning curve there, but that learning curve is going to happen with Jared Perry and Danario Alexander – who combined this season for fewer catches than Tommy Saunders – as his primary targets and not Jeremy Maclin (presumably) and Chase Coffman.
Andrew Jones is a highly touted tight end recruit who caught 18 passes this season, but are you going to center your entire passing game on a somewhat raw sophomore tight end?
So with no weapons and a head coach whose initial offensive inclination is to pound it out and hope for the best, I don’t see things going well next season.
The Tigers do not have the kind of talent that is ready to replace Daniel, Maclin, Coffman and company anyway. MU will lose 12 of 22 starters to graduation at the end of the season with the prospects of Jeremy Maclin (#2 WR according to ESPN), Sean Weatherspoon (#3 OLB according to ESPN) and Jaron Baston (likely to stay, but is rising draft boards quickly) going pro. This leaves MU replacing 14 starters at least. MU, like most universities not named USC, cannot replace 14 starters, and the core of its most successful teams in recent history, and expect to win 9-plus games next season.
Observation #3 – Mizzou’s success during the Chase Daniel Era (2006-2008).
“Big XII Football since 2006.”
Overall Record (Includes Big XII Championship and Bowl games)
1. OU: 34-7
2. UT: 31-7
3. TT: 28-10
4. MU: 29-11
5. KU: 25-12
Overall Regular Season Conference Record
1. OU: 20-4
2. UT: 18-6
3. MU: 16-8
4. TT: 15-9
5. KU: 14-10
BCS Bowls
OU: 3 bids (2006-2008)
KU: 1 bid (2007)
UT: 1 bid (2008)
Bowls (2008 bids included)
1. UT: 3 bids (Won Alamo Bowl, Won Holiday Bowl)
2. TT: 3 bids (Won Insight Bowl, Won Gator Bowl)
3. OSU: 3 bids (Won Independence Bowl, Won Insight Bowl)
4. MU: 3 bids (Lost Sun Bowl, Won Cotton Bowl)
5. OU: 3 bids (Lost Fiesta Bowl twice)
Note: The five listed schools and Kansas were the only schools who were bowl eligible all three seasons.
Record Against Ranked Teams (Includes Big XII Championship game and Bowls)
1. OU: 11-5 (8-5 vs Top 20; 2-4 vs Top 10)
2. UT: 7-3 (7-3 vs Top 20; 2-3 vs Top 10)
3. MU: 5-6 (2-6 vs Top 20; 1-4 vs Top 10)
4. TT: 5-7 (4-5 vs Top 20; 3-2 vs Top 10)
5. KU: 3-6 (2-5 vs Top 20; 1-4 vs Top 10)
Conference Titles
OU: 3 (2006 - 2008)
Division Titles
OU: 3 (Outright title in 2006 and 2007, shared title with TEX and TT in 2008)
NEB: 2 (Outright title in 2006, shared title with MU in 2008)
MU: 2 (Shared title with KU in 2007, shared title with Nebraska in 2008)
KU: 1 (Shared title with MU in 2007)
TEX: 1 (Shared title with OU and TT in 2008)
TT: 1 (Shared title with OU and TEX in 2008)
Basically what MU has is an 8, 12 and 9 win seasons (one game left of 2008), three bowl bids (one win and another game upcoming) and two Big XII Championship game appearances (and two bad losses to OU). MU was also tied for the third most wins against ranked opponents. Clearly it has been a good time to be an MU fan.
Observation #4: Missouri (and its fans) have misinterpreted their success.
“We have not arrived. I’ve said that … often.” – Gary Pinkel, Head Coach
“Oklahoma is Big 12 champ again, and Missouri again gets to claim runner-up status, even though we realize the distance between No. 1 and No. 2 is more like No. 1 and No. 5.” – Jason Whitlock, KC Star
“You have to figure that Missouri, when it came down to it, just wasn’t that good a football team.” – Joe Posnanski, KC Star
“Mizzou has been punted back into its inglorious past, when its teams had no chance of consistently competing against the sport's elite.” – Bernie Miklasz, St. Louis Post-Dispatch
Now, the situation isn’t as bad as Mr. Miklasz explains it, but part of the reason Miklasz writes these things is because everyone falsely believed Missouri was a championship contender. They’re not; not even close. It seems that Missouri fans were deceived by the point spreads MU put over weak opponents, the athleticism of Jeremy Maclin and their victories over rebuilding/underachieving Nebraska teams. But Texas and Oklahoma showed Missouri fans what Championship teams look like and Missouri is nowhere near that – and if they were, that window is closed now.
Chase Daniel is a good example of Missouri’s season. Daniel had a 15-to-1 TD/INT ratio after the Nebraska game (this means games against such powerhouses as Buffalo, SE Missouri State, Nevada and a “5-7 in the Big 10” Illinois team) and was the Heisman frontrunner. From that point on, Daniel threw at least one interception in each game, finishing with 22 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and a few key fumbles. The kid turned into a turnover machine. There are only 7 quarterbacks in the FBS with more interceptions than Daniel. I’m not saying Daniel sucks, he’s been an excellent college quarterback and will likely end his career with more than 100 career touchdowns, but he’s been very average these last eight weeks and his teams has suffered tremendously for it.
Observation #5: Missouri and Kansas are the same programs.
Yell and scream about that all you want Tigers fans, but it’s true.
Saturday, December 6, 2008
Postseason Draft and Keeper Thoughts
Some thoughts on the postseason drafts and keepers.
Draft
For those of you who were not in the postseason draft last year, here is a quick overview of what that looks like and some of the rules.
- The draft is sixteen rounds long, just like the regular season, and will consist of all players who are in the NFL playoffs.
- Draft order is determined by seed. Also, the first round is fixed, so the snake draft does not begin until the second round. So it will go as such:
Round One
First pick: Seed 1
Second pick: Seed 2
Third pick: Seed 3
Fourth pick: Seed 4
Round Two
Fifth pick: Seed 1
Sixth pick: Seed 2
Seventh pick: Seed 3
Eighth pick: Seed 4
Round Three
Ninth pick: Seed 4
Tenth pick: Seed 3
Eleventh pick: Seed 2
Twelfth pick: Seed 1
Round Four
Thirteenth pick: Seed 1
….
The point of this is to give the higher seeds an advantage for finishing with a better record. A pure snake draft would not value a top seed as much as it should.
- Each team may keep up to six (6) players from their regular season roster for the playoffs. The players will count as your 16th round pick and move up a round per player kept. So if you keep four players, you will lose your 13th through 16th round draft picks. Note: I suggest you keep a player who is actually IN THE PLAYOFFS.
- Because of the amount of keepers and there only being four teams, the draft moves really fast so time shouldn’t be too big of a deal.
- There is no free agency in the playoffs. The sixteen players you draft are the sixteen players you get for the whole playoffs, so you may want to consider the quality of team the player is on when you draft them.
- The roster size and the amount of starters is exactly the same as it is in the regular season. QB, RB, RB, RB/WR, WR, WR, TE, DEF, K and seen bench spots.
- The playoffs are a total points contest, not a weekly head-to-head matchup. All of the playoff weeks are added you to give you one big score. Most points wins. Basically, you want as many points as you can get. In the case of the consolation bracket, first place get the number one pick in next year’s draft, second place gets the second pick, third gets the third pick and fourth place gets the fourth pick. Here was last year’s results for the Championship:
- During the playoffs, everyone must post their starting lineups on the appropriate thread that will be provided on the league page. I will keep all of the scores, but I suggest you keep them too just in case I make a mistake.
Here are a few other things to keep in mind. The Championship Playoff and the Consolation Playoff (I’m working on an alternative name for that) are TWO COMPLETELY DIFFERENT DRAFTS!!! This is not one big draft, so all of the same players will available in the Consolation draft as they will be in the Championship draft. Also, the playoff drafts do absolutely nothing to your regular season rosters that you will be selecting keepers for the 2009 season from. You cannot keep someone from your playoff roster for the 2009 season, so don’t do something stupid with your regular season roster.
Keeper Thoughts
After some more thought, I’ve come up with three possible solutions for keepers. Give me your feedback and we’ll vote on it at the end of the season.
Prop. #1 – Two keepers for each team. Players drafted in the first and second round cannot be kept. Undrafted players count as a 12th round pick (if you keep two undrafted players, than it is your 11th and 12th round pick).
Prop. 2 – Same as proposition one only with three keepers.
Prop. 3 – Three keepers and a developmental keeper (a possible four total keepers). Players drafted in rounds one and two cannot be kept. Undrafted players count as a 12th round pick and move up (rounds 11 and 10) for each additional kept undrafted player. A developmental keeper must be a rookie or second year player (in this case, they would have had to be a rookie for the 2007 or 2008 NFL season) and will count as an 8th round draft pick. If you do not have an 8th round pick, it will move up to your next available round (7th round, 6th round, etc.).
Give me your thoughts. The only non-negotiable thing is the first and second round deal. The purpose is to maintain the value of the first and second rounds. I think we noticed this in last season’s fantasy baseball draft. The point is that Brandon Phillips should be drafted fifth overall in any fantasy draft as is what happened in last year’s FBB draft. My shot at a fantasy football equivalent would be taking Antonio Gates with the fifth overall pick in the draft. Agreed? (No, really, I don’t know what the football equivalent of Brandon Phillips is.)
Draft
For those of you who were not in the postseason draft last year, here is a quick overview of what that looks like and some of the rules.
- The draft is sixteen rounds long, just like the regular season, and will consist of all players who are in the NFL playoffs.
- Draft order is determined by seed. Also, the first round is fixed, so the snake draft does not begin until the second round. So it will go as such:
Round One
First pick: Seed 1
Second pick: Seed 2
Third pick: Seed 3
Fourth pick: Seed 4
Round Two
Fifth pick: Seed 1
Sixth pick: Seed 2
Seventh pick: Seed 3
Eighth pick: Seed 4
Round Three
Ninth pick: Seed 4
Tenth pick: Seed 3
Eleventh pick: Seed 2
Twelfth pick: Seed 1
Round Four
Thirteenth pick: Seed 1
….
The point of this is to give the higher seeds an advantage for finishing with a better record. A pure snake draft would not value a top seed as much as it should.
- Each team may keep up to six (6) players from their regular season roster for the playoffs. The players will count as your 16th round pick and move up a round per player kept. So if you keep four players, you will lose your 13th through 16th round draft picks. Note: I suggest you keep a player who is actually IN THE PLAYOFFS.
- Because of the amount of keepers and there only being four teams, the draft moves really fast so time shouldn’t be too big of a deal.
- There is no free agency in the playoffs. The sixteen players you draft are the sixteen players you get for the whole playoffs, so you may want to consider the quality of team the player is on when you draft them.
- The roster size and the amount of starters is exactly the same as it is in the regular season. QB, RB, RB, RB/WR, WR, WR, TE, DEF, K and seen bench spots.
- The playoffs are a total points contest, not a weekly head-to-head matchup. All of the playoff weeks are added you to give you one big score. Most points wins. Basically, you want as many points as you can get. In the case of the consolation bracket, first place get the number one pick in next year’s draft, second place gets the second pick, third gets the third pick and fourth place gets the fourth pick. Here was last year’s results for the Championship:
- During the playoffs, everyone must post their starting lineups on the appropriate thread that will be provided on the league page. I will keep all of the scores, but I suggest you keep them too just in case I make a mistake.
Here are a few other things to keep in mind. The Championship Playoff and the Consolation Playoff (I’m working on an alternative name for that) are TWO COMPLETELY DIFFERENT DRAFTS!!! This is not one big draft, so all of the same players will available in the Consolation draft as they will be in the Championship draft. Also, the playoff drafts do absolutely nothing to your regular season rosters that you will be selecting keepers for the 2009 season from. You cannot keep someone from your playoff roster for the 2009 season, so don’t do something stupid with your regular season roster.
Keeper Thoughts
After some more thought, I’ve come up with three possible solutions for keepers. Give me your feedback and we’ll vote on it at the end of the season.
Prop. #1 – Two keepers for each team. Players drafted in the first and second round cannot be kept. Undrafted players count as a 12th round pick (if you keep two undrafted players, than it is your 11th and 12th round pick).
Prop. 2 – Same as proposition one only with three keepers.
Prop. 3 – Three keepers and a developmental keeper (a possible four total keepers). Players drafted in rounds one and two cannot be kept. Undrafted players count as a 12th round pick and move up (rounds 11 and 10) for each additional kept undrafted player. A developmental keeper must be a rookie or second year player (in this case, they would have had to be a rookie for the 2007 or 2008 NFL season) and will count as an 8th round draft pick. If you do not have an 8th round pick, it will move up to your next available round (7th round, 6th round, etc.).
Give me your thoughts. The only non-negotiable thing is the first and second round deal. The purpose is to maintain the value of the first and second rounds. I think we noticed this in last season’s fantasy baseball draft. The point is that Brandon Phillips should be drafted fifth overall in any fantasy draft as is what happened in last year’s FBB draft. My shot at a fantasy football equivalent would be taking Antonio Gates with the fifth overall pick in the draft. Agreed? (No, really, I don’t know what the football equivalent of Brandon Phillips is.)
Thursday, December 4, 2008
A Four Week Mad Dash or A Catchy Headline I Couldn't Come Up With About the Last Four Weeks of the Season or Longest. Headline. Ever.
With four weeks left in the season, lets breakdown the chances of each team making the playoffs and where they may end up.
The Zou (8-4-1) 1313 points
Four Week Schedule: NG, JLT, WW, NG (Combine Record: 17-29-6)
Current Play:off Seed 1st in Championship Playoff
Upside: By record, he has the easiest schedule of all teams and has the highest scoring team. In addition, he has two matchups against the three win “Not Good” – terrible name – and does not play a team with a winning record.
Downside: At this point, only an injury to Adrian Peterson or a bad case of luck – or the “Steve Slaton Effect” as I like to call it – can hold down Erik at this point.
Best Case Scenario: Top seed in Championship Playoff
Worst Case Scenario: Erik drops a matchup and the Smurfs win out to steal the top seed.
Projection: Top seed in Championship Playoff and Young Kids division winner.
Krunk Smurfs (8-5) 1248 points
Four Week Schedule: KCI, SAS, PBC, KCI (Combine Record: 26-25-1)
Current Playoff Seed: 2nd in Championship Playoff
Upside: Jason controls his own fate. He has the advantage of not having to chase anyone in his division and is only an upset away from the best record in the league. One break and he might be the front runner for the league championship.
Downside: All four of his matchups are within the division, which has handed him three of his five losses. Jason is also dealing with many injury issues, including Clinton Portis and Brian Westbrook. Also, the best quarterback on his roster is Jason Campbell.
Best Case Scenario: Top seed in Championship Playoff
Worst Case Scenario: Injuries mount and the Smurfs miss out on the playoffs entirely.
Projection: 2nd Seed in Championship Playoff as Old Kids division winner.
Inoculators (7-6) 1195 points
Four Week Schedule: KS, PBC, SAS, KS (Combine Record: 28-23-1)
Current Playoff Seed: 3rd in Championship Playoff
Upside: The Inoculators control their own destiny with two matchups with the division leader Smurfs and a matchup apiece with PBC and the Saints. Matchups favor the Inoculators fantasy players for the remainder of the season.
Downside: The Inoculators are the second lowest scoring team in the league. Enough said.
Best Case Scenario: Top seed in Championship Playoff – it’s possible but unlikely. A more likely top end result is a division championship.
Worst Case Scenario: The Inoculators could easily lose out.
Projection: Top seed in consolation playoff.
Pollard’s Brady Crushers (6-6-1) 1283 points
Four Week Schedule: SAS, KCI, KS, SAS (Combine Record: 27-25)
Current Playoff Seed: 4th in Championship Playoff
Upside: PBC has the best draw of the final four matchups in comparison of the rest of the division. Andrew has scored the second most points in the league and currently holds any tie-breaker within the division.
Downside: Luck has not been with PBC for most of the season, but he has been on a bit of an upswing the last few weeks. It is feasible that PBC does not make the playoffs even if he goes 3-1 in the final four weeks – but a 3-1 finish could also win him the division. It’s a very shaky situation for PBC, who has little room for error.
Best Case Scenario: A division title and the second seed in the playoffs.
Worst Case Scenario: The third seed in the consolation playoff.
Projection: 3rd seed in the Championship playoff
I Still Have Just LT (6-7) 1279 points
Four Week Schedule: WW, ZOU, NG, WW (Combine Record: 21-24-7)
Current Playoff Seed: 1st in Consolation Playoff
Upside: First, JLT doesn’t have to play The Zou twice. Second, JLT had a streak of three straight 100-point weeks snapped (he scored 94 points against the Smurfs… and lost). Finally, he is only four points behind Andrew for the second highest point total in the league, which could help him in potential tie-breaking situation for a playoff spot.
Downside: If the season ended today, Chris would be out of the championship playoff, meaning he needs some help from the teams above him in addition to taking care of business on his end. However, being a half-game out of the playoffs is not a tough mountain to climb.
Best Case Scenario: A division championship is still within reach, but is unlikely. The third seed in the playoffs is a more likely high-end.
Worst Case Scenario: Miss the playoffs and gets 3rd seed in the consolation bracket.
Projection: Fourth seed in Championship playoff.
Saints (6-7) 1238 points
Four Week Schedule: PBC, KS, KCI, PBC (Combine Record: 27-23-2)
Current Playoff Seed: 2nd in Consolation Playoff
Upside: A few weeks ago, I said he was as good as dead. At 6-7, he’s only a half-a-game out of the playoffs. He has nothing to lose at this point after the way his season started.
Downside: Three losses over the last three weeks may be a sign of a return to his early season form… which was not a good thing.
Best Case Scenario: Tony takes advantage of not having to play the Smurfs twice and steals a wildcard spot away from the Inoculators – the more likely team to not make the playoffs of the current playoff teams.
Worst Case Scenario: Tony maintains his trend and misses the playoffs.
Projection: 3rd seed in consolation bracket.
Weseloh Wannabees (5-6-2) 1213 points
Four Week Schedule: JLT, NG, ZOU, JLT (Combine Record: 23-26-3)
Current Playoff Seed: 3rd in Consolation Playoff
Upside: His two ties are not losses and he put up 138 points last week.
Downside: The Wannabees are 1-3-1 in the last five weeks, though his win was last week. Also, there are a lot of teams ahead of him that he needs to jump over in order to get to the playoffs.
Best Case Scenario: Going 3-1 in the final four weeks is not out of the question. This may be enough for him to steal a fourth seed in the playoffs.
Worst Case Scenario: As likely as 3-1 is, so is 1-3. This wouldn’t be good for Weseloh.
Projection: 2rd seed in consolation bracket.
Not Good (3-8-2) 1068 points
Four Week Schedule: ZOU, WW, JLT, ZOU (Combine Record: 27-21-4)
Current Playoff Seed: 4th in Consolation Playoff
Upside: Destroying WW and JLT’s playoff hopes.
Downside: At this point, there is no downside.
Best Case Scenario: There really isn’t a best case scenario at this point aside from not having the four seed in the consolation bracket.
Worst Case Scenario: None.
Projection: 4th seed in consolation bracket.
Overall Standings for Playoff Spot
#Zou (8-4-1; 1313 pts) GB: -
#Smurfs (8-5; 1248 pts) GB: -
%Inoculators (7-6; 1195 pts) GB: -
%PBC (6-6-1; 1283 pts) GB: -
Just LT (6-7; 1279 pts) GB: .5
Saints (6-7; 1238 pts) GB: .5
Wannabees (5-6-2; 1213 pts) GB: 1
Not Good (3-8-2; 1068 pts) GB: 3
# = Division Leader
% = Wildcard
Division Standings
Old Kids
Smurfs (8-5; 1248 pts) GB: -
Inoculators (7-6; 1195 pts) GB: 1
PBC (6-6-1; 1283 pts) GB: 1.5
Saints (6-7; 1238 pts) GB: 2
Young Kids
Zou (8-4-1; 1313 pts) GB: -
Just LT (6-7; 1279 pts) GB: 2.5
Wannabees (5-6-2; 1213 pts) GB: 2.5
Not Good (3-8-2; 1068 pts) Eliminated
Overall Standing for Top Seed in Playoffs
Zou (8-4-1; 1313 pts) GB: -
Smurfs (8-5; 1248 pts) GB: .5
Inoculators (7-6; 1195 pts) GB: 1.5
PBC (6-6-1; 1283 pts) GB: 2
Just LT (6-7; 1279 pts) GB: 2.5
Saints (6-7; 1238 pts) GB: 2.5
Wannabees (5-6-2; 1213 pts) GB: 3
Not Good (3-8-2; 1068 pts) Eliminated
The Zou (8-4-1) 1313 points
Four Week Schedule: NG, JLT, WW, NG (Combine Record: 17-29-6)
Current Play:off Seed 1st in Championship Playoff
Upside: By record, he has the easiest schedule of all teams and has the highest scoring team. In addition, he has two matchups against the three win “Not Good” – terrible name – and does not play a team with a winning record.
Downside: At this point, only an injury to Adrian Peterson or a bad case of luck – or the “Steve Slaton Effect” as I like to call it – can hold down Erik at this point.
Best Case Scenario: Top seed in Championship Playoff
Worst Case Scenario: Erik drops a matchup and the Smurfs win out to steal the top seed.
Projection: Top seed in Championship Playoff and Young Kids division winner.
Krunk Smurfs (8-5) 1248 points
Four Week Schedule: KCI, SAS, PBC, KCI (Combine Record: 26-25-1)
Current Playoff Seed: 2nd in Championship Playoff
Upside: Jason controls his own fate. He has the advantage of not having to chase anyone in his division and is only an upset away from the best record in the league. One break and he might be the front runner for the league championship.
Downside: All four of his matchups are within the division, which has handed him three of his five losses. Jason is also dealing with many injury issues, including Clinton Portis and Brian Westbrook. Also, the best quarterback on his roster is Jason Campbell.
Best Case Scenario: Top seed in Championship Playoff
Worst Case Scenario: Injuries mount and the Smurfs miss out on the playoffs entirely.
Projection: 2nd Seed in Championship Playoff as Old Kids division winner.
Inoculators (7-6) 1195 points
Four Week Schedule: KS, PBC, SAS, KS (Combine Record: 28-23-1)
Current Playoff Seed: 3rd in Championship Playoff
Upside: The Inoculators control their own destiny with two matchups with the division leader Smurfs and a matchup apiece with PBC and the Saints. Matchups favor the Inoculators fantasy players for the remainder of the season.
Downside: The Inoculators are the second lowest scoring team in the league. Enough said.
Best Case Scenario: Top seed in Championship Playoff – it’s possible but unlikely. A more likely top end result is a division championship.
Worst Case Scenario: The Inoculators could easily lose out.
Projection: Top seed in consolation playoff.
Pollard’s Brady Crushers (6-6-1) 1283 points
Four Week Schedule: SAS, KCI, KS, SAS (Combine Record: 27-25)
Current Playoff Seed: 4th in Championship Playoff
Upside: PBC has the best draw of the final four matchups in comparison of the rest of the division. Andrew has scored the second most points in the league and currently holds any tie-breaker within the division.
Downside: Luck has not been with PBC for most of the season, but he has been on a bit of an upswing the last few weeks. It is feasible that PBC does not make the playoffs even if he goes 3-1 in the final four weeks – but a 3-1 finish could also win him the division. It’s a very shaky situation for PBC, who has little room for error.
Best Case Scenario: A division title and the second seed in the playoffs.
Worst Case Scenario: The third seed in the consolation playoff.
Projection: 3rd seed in the Championship playoff
I Still Have Just LT (6-7) 1279 points
Four Week Schedule: WW, ZOU, NG, WW (Combine Record: 21-24-7)
Current Playoff Seed: 1st in Consolation Playoff
Upside: First, JLT doesn’t have to play The Zou twice. Second, JLT had a streak of three straight 100-point weeks snapped (he scored 94 points against the Smurfs… and lost). Finally, he is only four points behind Andrew for the second highest point total in the league, which could help him in potential tie-breaking situation for a playoff spot.
Downside: If the season ended today, Chris would be out of the championship playoff, meaning he needs some help from the teams above him in addition to taking care of business on his end. However, being a half-game out of the playoffs is not a tough mountain to climb.
Best Case Scenario: A division championship is still within reach, but is unlikely. The third seed in the playoffs is a more likely high-end.
Worst Case Scenario: Miss the playoffs and gets 3rd seed in the consolation bracket.
Projection: Fourth seed in Championship playoff.
Saints (6-7) 1238 points
Four Week Schedule: PBC, KS, KCI, PBC (Combine Record: 27-23-2)
Current Playoff Seed: 2nd in Consolation Playoff
Upside: A few weeks ago, I said he was as good as dead. At 6-7, he’s only a half-a-game out of the playoffs. He has nothing to lose at this point after the way his season started.
Downside: Three losses over the last three weeks may be a sign of a return to his early season form… which was not a good thing.
Best Case Scenario: Tony takes advantage of not having to play the Smurfs twice and steals a wildcard spot away from the Inoculators – the more likely team to not make the playoffs of the current playoff teams.
Worst Case Scenario: Tony maintains his trend and misses the playoffs.
Projection: 3rd seed in consolation bracket.
Weseloh Wannabees (5-6-2) 1213 points
Four Week Schedule: JLT, NG, ZOU, JLT (Combine Record: 23-26-3)
Current Playoff Seed: 3rd in Consolation Playoff
Upside: His two ties are not losses and he put up 138 points last week.
Downside: The Wannabees are 1-3-1 in the last five weeks, though his win was last week. Also, there are a lot of teams ahead of him that he needs to jump over in order to get to the playoffs.
Best Case Scenario: Going 3-1 in the final four weeks is not out of the question. This may be enough for him to steal a fourth seed in the playoffs.
Worst Case Scenario: As likely as 3-1 is, so is 1-3. This wouldn’t be good for Weseloh.
Projection: 2rd seed in consolation bracket.
Not Good (3-8-2) 1068 points
Four Week Schedule: ZOU, WW, JLT, ZOU (Combine Record: 27-21-4)
Current Playoff Seed: 4th in Consolation Playoff
Upside: Destroying WW and JLT’s playoff hopes.
Downside: At this point, there is no downside.
Best Case Scenario: There really isn’t a best case scenario at this point aside from not having the four seed in the consolation bracket.
Worst Case Scenario: None.
Projection: 4th seed in consolation bracket.
Overall Standings for Playoff Spot
#Zou (8-4-1; 1313 pts) GB: -
#Smurfs (8-5; 1248 pts) GB: -
%Inoculators (7-6; 1195 pts) GB: -
%PBC (6-6-1; 1283 pts) GB: -
Just LT (6-7; 1279 pts) GB: .5
Saints (6-7; 1238 pts) GB: .5
Wannabees (5-6-2; 1213 pts) GB: 1
Not Good (3-8-2; 1068 pts) GB: 3
# = Division Leader
% = Wildcard
Division Standings
Old Kids
Smurfs (8-5; 1248 pts) GB: -
Inoculators (7-6; 1195 pts) GB: 1
PBC (6-6-1; 1283 pts) GB: 1.5
Saints (6-7; 1238 pts) GB: 2
Young Kids
Zou (8-4-1; 1313 pts) GB: -
Just LT (6-7; 1279 pts) GB: 2.5
Wannabees (5-6-2; 1213 pts) GB: 2.5
Not Good (3-8-2; 1068 pts) Eliminated
Overall Standing for Top Seed in Playoffs
Zou (8-4-1; 1313 pts) GB: -
Smurfs (8-5; 1248 pts) GB: .5
Inoculators (7-6; 1195 pts) GB: 1.5
PBC (6-6-1; 1283 pts) GB: 2
Just LT (6-7; 1279 pts) GB: 2.5
Saints (6-7; 1238 pts) GB: 2.5
Wannabees (5-6-2; 1213 pts) GB: 3
Not Good (3-8-2; 1068 pts) Eliminated
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Thoughts
First, sorry for the lack of blog posts. I need to do better.
Second, a message to Andrew: Stop being bitter. No one needs to hear about how "unlucky" you are. There is no luck in fantasy sports (**previous sentence typed with heavy sarcasm**). If you're so unlucky, write a blog about it, bitch. Get over yourself.
Third, I want to apologize to Tony for saying that his season was over the last time I wrote a blog post. He's won five of his last six and should be commended for that. I still think you're gay though.
Fourth, three guys I severely regret dropping: Matt Ryan (ugh), Anthony Gonzalez, the Jets D/ST (see last Sunday).
Odd Statistical Finding #1: Apparently, there is a home field advantage in fantasy football – who knew? Six of the eight teams in our league have a .500 or better record at home (Jeff is 1-4, Andrew is 2-3). Only three teams, Jason (3-3), Erik (3-1) and Jeff (3-1-1) have winning records on the "road". Weird. For space eating sake, here is this week's schedule with home/away records:
Wannabees (Road: 3-1-1) at Inoculators (Home: 4-1)
The Zou (Road: 3-1) at Saints (Home: 4-0)
Just LT (Road: 1-3) at Crushers (Home: 2-3)
Not Good (0-4-1) at Smurfs (Home: 2-2)
Odd Statistical Finding #2: Andrew is 0-5 against the Young Kids division. Andrew sucks.
Looking Back at Guys I Thought Would Not Be As Good After the First Four Weeks or The Longest Title for a Worthless Time-Wasting Segment Ever
Guys I Thought Would Slow Down:
Frank Gore: First 4 Games = 89 points (18.5 Points Per Week), Last 5 Games = 66 (13.2 ppw)
Brandon Marshall: F4 = 64 (16 ppw), L5 = 32 (6.4 ppw)
Larry Fitzgerald: F4 = 70 (17.5 ppw), L5 = 64 (12.8 ppw)
Michael Turner: F4 = 89 (22.25 ppw), L5 = 66 (13.2 ppw)
Kurt Warner: F4 = 79 (19.75 ppw), L5 = 114 (22.8 ppw) – oops.
Anquan Boldin: F4 = 76 (19 ppw), L5 = 57 (11.4 ppw)
(It should be noted that Boldin missed two weeks with an injury and in his last three games has averaged 19 points a week.)
A List of Guys Tyler Thigpen Out Fantasy Pointed Last Week or A List of Guys I Never Would Have Thought I Would Say Tyler Thigpen Was Better Than (At Least For A Week):
Peyton Manning
Donovan McNabb
Ben Roethlisberger
Brett Favre
Tom Brady
Tony Romo
LaDainian Tomlinson
Brian Westbrook
Every Wide Receiver except for Eddie Royal (!) and Reggie Wayne.
Thoughts On The Chiefs
First off, the Chiefs have been far more entertaining to watch the last three weeks than the first six. Tyler Thigpen is far more easy on the eye than Brodie Croyle or Damon Huard have ever been. I like that we are competing and are not getting shelled week after week.
With that said, here are my three concerns.
First, what are the odds that, in a year we will likely go 1-15 or 2-14 that the NFL – the parity league – produces an 0-16 team? Seriously, we're cursed. Here is the remaining schedule for the Lions: @ CAR (7-2), vs TB (6-3), vs TEN (9-0), vs MIN (5-4), @ IND (5-4), vs NO (4-5), @ GB (4-5).
Second, I am fearful that with the success of Tyler Thigpen the Chiefs will fail to draft a quarterback in the first or second round. Look, Tyler has played three good games, but he is still the guy who laid that Atlanta turd. In addition, the Chiefs have played such stellar pass defenses as the Jets and the Chargers. And when we played Tampa Bay, the one good defense we've played the last three weeks, Thigpen managed just 164 yards passing. It's not that I don't hope he's the real deal, because I REALLY REALLY REALLY REALLY do. But at the same time, Derek Anderson looked like the real deal last season and look where he is now. The Chiefs still need to be thinking QB with one of their two top 35 picks.
Third, the Chiefs defense sucks. Here are a series of sexy rankings.
Yards Per Game (406.2) = 32nd
Points Per Game (27) = 27th
Pass Yards Per Game (233.9) = 24th
Rush Yards Per Game (172.3) = 32nd
Third Down Percentage (51%) = 32nd (teams convert 51% -FIFTY-ONE PERCENT!!!!!!!!!!!! – of their third downs against the Chiefs! AAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!)
We will have nearly $50 million in cap space next season assuming the rumors of LJ getting cut and Tony G. getting traded come true – that and the additional cap space increase that happens after every season. Freaking sign one of the following guys please:
Albert Haynesworth
Terrell Suggs
Nnamdi Asomugha
Jonathan Vilma
Karlos Dansby
One of those five guys has to be going after the highest bidder, right? I mean, we could almost double anybody else's offer. One of them has to accept it, am I right???? Am I RIGHT?!?!?!one!!!???11??!one111!!??/!??!?$@#?!@??!#@?#?$@#?$?@#?!!??? GOD OUR DEFENSE SUCKS!!!!
(Note: They did play well last Sunday for the most part.)
Power Rankings
- Zou
- Saints
- Smurfs
- Just LT
- Brady Crushers
- Wannabees
- Inoculators
- Not Good (Joel, how do you always come up with the gayest names? Seriously, how do you do that?)
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