Playoff Race Scenarios

Playoff Standings

Zou: 9-4-1; 1413 pts
Smurfs: 9-5; 1376 pts
PBC: 7-6-1; 1384 pts
Wannabees: 6-6-2; 1320 pts
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Inoc: 7-7; 1306 pts
JLT: 6-8; 1334 pts
Saints: 6-8; 1312 pts
NG: 3-9-2; 1148

Wildcard Standings

PBC 7-6-1 GB: -
^Wannabees 6-6-2 GB: -
^Inoculators 7-7 GB: -
JLT 6-8 GB: 1
Saints 6-8 GB: 1

^ The Wannabees hold the tie-breaker over the Inoculators by having scored 14 more fantasy points this season.

Old Kids Division Race

Smurfs: 9-5 GB: -
PBC: 7-6-1 GB: 1.5
Inoc.: 7-7 GB: 2
Saints: 6-8 GB: 3

Young Kids Division Race

Zou: 9-4-1 GB: -
Wannabees: 6-6-2 GB: 2.5
JLT: eliminated
NG: eliminated

The Eliminated: Not Good

Joel is done. While technically “Not Good” still has a shot at the playoffs, the only scenario that sees Joel making the playoffs is he won out, managed a tie for forth place due to epic collapses from everyone above him, and scored enough points to win the tie-breaker. This isn’t happening.

On The Fence of Contention: JLT and Saints

Both JLT (vs Zou) and Saints (vs Smurfs) have what would appear to be certain losses this week. A loss for either team would almost certainly eliminate them from contention, but there are still reasonable scenarios they either of them makes the playoffs. We’ll take a stronger look at each team if either wins their matchup.

The Locks: Krunk Smurfs and The Zou

At this point, there are two virtual locks (though they are not officially in the playoffs – yet): The Zou and Krunk Smurfs.

At least one win between now and the end of the season for Erik and he is in the playoffs. The win would clinch a playoff spot and his division.

The Smurfs’ situation is a little less decided compared to the Zou when it comes to winning his division, but Jason is still in very good shape. The Smurfs can also clinch a playoff spot with a win and an Inoculators loss.

Erik’s playoff clinching scenario for Week 15: A win OR an Inoculators/Wannabees loss
Erik’s division clinching scenario for Week 15: A win OR a Wannabees loss

Jason’s playoff clinching scenario for Week 15: A win AND an Inoculators/Wannabees loss

Wildcards: PBC, Wannabees, Inoculators

Only half-a-game separates the third seed Crushers from both the Wannabees and Inoculators, so things are tight to say the least. Of course, what everybody needs is for them to win and everyone else to lose, but here are some specific things each team should look for next week.

PBC

Andrew needs to view this week as a “win and in” situation. First, Andrew shouldn’t worry about JLT and the Saints, because any scenario where Andrew is tied or is just a half a game up on him would mean he would be out either of wildcard spots. With this understood, should Andrew beat the Inoculators this week, he would have all but locked down a playoff spot. A win and things elsewhere going down as projected, the standings would look like this (this assumes WW beats Joel):

PBC (8-6-1) GB: -
WW (7-6-2) GB: .5
KCI (7-8) GB: 1.5

Granted, Andrew would have a matchup against the Smurfs in Week 16, but he would finish the season against the Saints while the Inoculators face the Smurfs that week.

A loss would make things more complicated. Here’s what the standings would look in that case:

WW (7-6-2) GB: -
KCI (8-7) GB: -
PBC (7-7-1) GB: .5

This would put a tremendous amount of pressure on Andrew to beat the Smurfs in Week 16. In fact, a loss to Jason and KCI (vs Saints) and Wannabees (vs Zou) wins would eliminate Andrew from the playoffs.

There is, of course, a scenario where Andrew wins the division, but that is looking unlikely on the moment. Andrew’s focus should be on beating the Inoculators this weekend.

Wannabees

Two things are on the Wannabees agenda: Don’t get upset and keep his points lead.

An upset loss to Joel would be terrible for Jeff. While it would still be possible for him to make the playoffs, it would be a huge hit to his chances.

The biggest thing that he needs to keep on his mind is his points lead on the Inoculators. It is that number that has him in the position he is in now. He needs to makes sure he maintains that number.

Inoculators

As close as the Inoculators are to the playoffs, Ben is still very, very far away. A win this week guarantees the Inoculators little and Ben also has the toughest of the Week 17 matchups. I think the Inoculators are more likely to be out of the playoffs than in.