Doubting Bradford

The longer I look at the quarterback situation in the 2009 NFL Draft, the more I think Sam Bradford is not the clear cut, no doubt about it number one quarterback in the draft. Now, I’m not saying that he is not, but I want to show you a few things that have made me think a little over the last couple of days.

What I did was basically break down what would be considered the six best NFL QB prospects in college right now. It is possible not all six will declare for the draft, but I think it is a safe consensus that these six guys are the guys to watch if not for this year, then for next.

The six are: Sam Bradford (OU), Matt Stafford (UGA), Colt McCoy (Texas), Tim Tebow (UF), Mark Sanchez (USC) and Nate Davis (Ball State).

The first two stats are mostly set ups for the last two stats I want to show you. The first one is career interceptions-per-attempts. This, to me, is the most controllable stat a quarterback. Like in almost all football stats, there are so many uncontrollable aspects that affect the eventual stat. For instance, a running back is nothing without a decent line, a receiver cannot catch passes if the ball is never thrown to him (or thrown in an uncatchable manner), a quarterback cannot control whether or not the receiver catches an accurate pass and so on. What a quarterback can control, however, is his decisions. He can choose when to throw, who to throw to and how to get it there (touch pass, line drive, etc.). Now, there are always interceptions, especially in college, where the receiver is at fault for either tipping the pass or running the wrong route, but I’m sure that there are an equal amount interceptions dropped that may not of been had it been a pro athlete and not a college athlete. Basically, I’m assuming these things balance themselves out over the course of one’s career. Anyway, I think this is one of the most important stats – moreso than yards, completion percentage or touchdowns – when statistically evaluating a quarterback. Here is how the six measure up.

INT-Per-Attempt

Tim Tebow – INT every 72 attempts
Thoughts: First, holy crap. That’s a massive number. Now, Tebow does hold the distinction of throwing the second fewest amount of passes (ahead of Mark Sanchez) and does throw many screens and passes to the flat to get his teammate's athleticism in space. But its not like the guy never threw it down the field, otherwise what is the point of have Percy Harvin play wide receiver and not running back? No matter the offense, that kind of ball protection is impressive.

Sam Bradford – INT every 56 attempts
Thoughts: For a guy who has thrown a half a million passes over the last two seasons, this is a staggeringly high number and in some ways more impressive than Tebow’s number. You can see why people would think high of him.

Nate Davis – INT every 52 attempts
Thoughts: I’d like this guy if he wasn’t Jason Whitlock’s sloppy seconds.

Colt McCoy – INT every 35 attempts (1 INT every 50 attempts if you exclude his sophomore season)
Thoughts: McCoy had that terrible 2007 season that hurt his career numbers. But he has shown he has the ability to protect the ball in two of the three seasons he’s played.

Matt Stafford – INT every 30 attempts (INT every 40 attempts this season)
Thoughts: Stafford’s INT:PA number has gotten better every season he’s played. People marvel at his arm and size, but look what that’s doing for JaMarcus Russell right now. Still, it is better to improve than to regress.

Mark Sanchez – INT every 28 attempts
Thoughts: This was Sanchez first full season as a starter so things were going to be a little rough. Additionally, USC – for some reason unknown to man – does not really have a top flight receiver for Sanchez to throw to. Plus, Sanchez was hurt coming into the season and did get better as the season progressed (4 INT in final 7 games with 2 INT coming in the Notre Dame – ?! – game).

Now that you have these numbers in mind, let’s look at how much pressure opposing defenses where getting on them. The obvious reason to look at this is to see what kind of atmosphere where these quarterbacks in when they had to make decisions in the pocket.

Times Sacked in 2008 (pass attempts)

Sam Bradford – 9 (442: once ever 50 passing plays)
Thoughts: Clearly, Bradford could do whatever he wanted in the pocket. Bradford was sacked in only four games this season, all of which involved a Texas school (Tex: 3 sacks; TCU: 3 sacks; TT: 2; TAM: 1). Bradford threw two of his six picks in 2008 in those four games (both against Texas).

Nate Davis – 12 (372: once every 32 passing plays)
Thoughts: While he does not have the same insane protection Bradford enjoyed, he still had some time to get comfortable. Davis is a millionaire to Bradford’s billionaire: Both are rich, but one is significantly richer than the other.

Tim Tebow – 15 (268: once every 19 passing plays)
Thoughts: Believe it or not, this is a number closer to what he can expect in the pros. In comparison, Philip Rivers, who is about in the middle of the road in the most/least sacked QB spectrum, is sacked once every 21 passing plays. (Gives you a different perspective on how crazy Bradford’s protection has been, doesn’t it?)

Matt Stafford – 15 (352: once every 24 passing plays)
Thoughts: This is more of a “true” number than Tebow’s because Stafford does not play a big part in the running game the way Tebow does – which can lead to inflated sack numbers. He is faceing something closer to NFL pressure – relatively at least.

Mark Sanchez – 16 (331: once every 22 passing plays)
Thoughts: Given that Sanchez has had a bum knee cap all season, I’m more impressed by his toughness after seeing this stat, which erases some (not all) doubts about how injury prone he may be.

Colt McCoy – 20 (375: once every 20 passing plays)
Thoughts: This is an encouraging state for McCoy given his production this season. It has changed the way I view his season compared to Bradford’s.

Finally, we look at the top rated defenses in the SEC and Big XII conferences since the top four of the six quarterbacks – in my opinion – are in those conferences.

Top 7 SEC Pass Defenses – as calculated by yards allowed per game (National Ranking)

South Carolina (3)
Tennessee (4)
Vanderbilt (18)
Florida (19)
Mississippi St (20)
Alabama (21)
Auburn (22)

Top 5 Big XII Pass Defenses – as calculated by yards allowed per game (National Ranking)

Colorado (74)
Nebraska (90)
Texas Tech (91)
Texas A&M (93)
Oklahoma (99)

There will be those who say that the Big XII offenses were so good that the defensive rankings are skewed. Here is one thought to counter that argument: Iowa State finished 29th in the nation in passing offense, 9th in the Big XII – ahead of Oklahoma State, Colorado and Baylor (Iowa State. 29th in the nation.). Eleven of the 12 Big XII teams finished 90th or worse in pass defense out of 119 schools. Seven schools finished 102nd or worse. I think it is fair to say that, at least, the Big XII is a below average pass defense conference. Seven Big XII schools finished 87th or worse in TOTAL defense this season. The highest rated Big XII team for total defense (yards allowed per game) was Texas and they were ranked 50th. In comparison, 9 (of 12) SEC teams were ranked 36th or higher in total defense.

It is true that the SEC had some bad offenses (Auburn, Kentucky, Miss. State, Tennessee and Vanderbilt all finished 103rd or worse in total offense – South Carolina was 97th), but at least six SEC schools cracked the top 55 in total offense (Georgia and Florida were top 25) this season, which is more than can be said about the number of Big XII defenses that cracked the top 55 in total defense (one – Texas, and they were 50th).I think it would be fair to say that the SEC was an average (barely) offensive conference this season, especially with how dominate the SEC’s defenses were.

The point in all of this is that Bradford and McCoy did not see the kind of talent on defense Tebow and Stafford did.

Eight of Stafford’s nine picks this season (and seven just 7 of his TDs) came against six of the top 7 SEC pass defenses; Miss. State was the only team Stafford did not play in the top seven. That’s not an easy haul for any college quarterback. In comparison, Tebow threw 10 touchdowns and ZERO interceptions (ZERO!) against four of the six defenses he could have faced (he did not play Miss. State or Auburn). Granted, he did not throw for many yards against those teams, averaging less than 200 yards a game, but he still handled them with more efficiency that Stafford.

ANYWAY, this whole thing began with me making a statement about not being sure of Bradford’s draft status as the number one quarterback in the class. Looking at these numbers, it seems to me that Bradford may have hit a bit of a perfect storm. He played terrible pass defenses, had an insane offensive line and had a plethora of weapons. He never really had to deal with pressure. The one game he did have pressure in, the Texas game, he threw one-third of his season total picks and lost the game (though he did throw five touchdowns…). When I watch OU on offense, I don’t look at them and go, “Wow, Sam Bradford is INSANELY good,” as much as I go, “That offense is an unstoppable machine.” Whereas, when I watch Florida, I'm more likely to watch and say, “Geez, Tebow is unstoppable.”

I think you could take Tebow, Stafford, McCoy, Todd Reesing, Chase Daniel, Brodie Croyle or Marques Hagans and still have relatively the same kind of success – maybe not 60 points a game success, but success none the less. I mean, who wouldn’t have successes at quarterback there if you’re only going to get sacked in four of the 13 games you play and your conference has 11 teams ranked 90th or worse in pass defense.

However, if you take Tebow from this Florida team, I don’t know if they would be as good of an offense. Much is predicated on Tebow’s ability to run – something Bradford doesn’t do nearly as well as Tebow does. I don’t think Sam Bradford goes to Florida and has a 48-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Some may say, “Well, Bradford is going to get his chance in the BCS title game when he plays Florida,” but it is not the same thing. Neither team will have played in over a month. This is no way to judge a players ability against a good team let alone a Championship. Not to say there is nothing to be gained from the game, but this would be a much more meaningful matchup if either team had played in the past five weeks. Stupid BCS.

Anyway, that’s just something I’ve been thinking about. Feel free to make fun of me for it. But please note, the does not mean I don’ think Bradford would not be an excellent quarterback at the next level or that Tim Tebow is the best quarterback in the draft (though I did make it seem that way). Tebow does have an awkward throwing motion, a slow release, concerns about what all the hits he took in college will do to his long term health, concerns about restructing a team's offensive line to account for his blind side being on the right and not the left, his overall ceiling and whether or not he can be a true pocket passer.

But ultimately this is a piece of what is going to be a much larger puzzle of finding the best quarterback in the draft. But I do think the gap between Bradford and the rest of this year’s quarterback class is closer than what ESPN and the rest of the draft guru’s are saying. I guess, that's really the whole point.