Playoff Race Scenarios

Playoff Standings

Zou: 9-4-1; 1413 pts
Smurfs: 9-5; 1376 pts
PBC: 7-6-1; 1384 pts
Wannabees: 6-6-2; 1320 pts
--------------------------------------
Inoc: 7-7; 1306 pts
JLT: 6-8; 1334 pts
Saints: 6-8; 1312 pts
NG: 3-9-2; 1148

Wildcard Standings

PBC 7-6-1 GB: -
^Wannabees 6-6-2 GB: -
^Inoculators 7-7 GB: -
JLT 6-8 GB: 1
Saints 6-8 GB: 1

^ The Wannabees hold the tie-breaker over the Inoculators by having scored 14 more fantasy points this season.

Old Kids Division Race

Smurfs: 9-5 GB: -
PBC: 7-6-1 GB: 1.5
Inoc.: 7-7 GB: 2
Saints: 6-8 GB: 3

Young Kids Division Race

Zou: 9-4-1 GB: -
Wannabees: 6-6-2 GB: 2.5
JLT: eliminated
NG: eliminated

The Eliminated: Not Good

Joel is done. While technically “Not Good” still has a shot at the playoffs, the only scenario that sees Joel making the playoffs is he won out, managed a tie for forth place due to epic collapses from everyone above him, and scored enough points to win the tie-breaker. This isn’t happening.

On The Fence of Contention: JLT and Saints

Both JLT (vs Zou) and Saints (vs Smurfs) have what would appear to be certain losses this week. A loss for either team would almost certainly eliminate them from contention, but there are still reasonable scenarios they either of them makes the playoffs. We’ll take a stronger look at each team if either wins their matchup.

The Locks: Krunk Smurfs and The Zou

At this point, there are two virtual locks (though they are not officially in the playoffs – yet): The Zou and Krunk Smurfs.

At least one win between now and the end of the season for Erik and he is in the playoffs. The win would clinch a playoff spot and his division.

The Smurfs’ situation is a little less decided compared to the Zou when it comes to winning his division, but Jason is still in very good shape. The Smurfs can also clinch a playoff spot with a win and an Inoculators loss.

Erik’s playoff clinching scenario for Week 15: A win OR an Inoculators/Wannabees loss
Erik’s division clinching scenario for Week 15: A win OR a Wannabees loss

Jason’s playoff clinching scenario for Week 15: A win AND an Inoculators/Wannabees loss

Wildcards: PBC, Wannabees, Inoculators

Only half-a-game separates the third seed Crushers from both the Wannabees and Inoculators, so things are tight to say the least. Of course, what everybody needs is for them to win and everyone else to lose, but here are some specific things each team should look for next week.

PBC

Andrew needs to view this week as a “win and in” situation. First, Andrew shouldn’t worry about JLT and the Saints, because any scenario where Andrew is tied or is just a half a game up on him would mean he would be out either of wildcard spots. With this understood, should Andrew beat the Inoculators this week, he would have all but locked down a playoff spot. A win and things elsewhere going down as projected, the standings would look like this (this assumes WW beats Joel):

PBC (8-6-1) GB: -
WW (7-6-2) GB: .5
KCI (7-8) GB: 1.5

Granted, Andrew would have a matchup against the Smurfs in Week 16, but he would finish the season against the Saints while the Inoculators face the Smurfs that week.

A loss would make things more complicated. Here’s what the standings would look in that case:

WW (7-6-2) GB: -
KCI (8-7) GB: -
PBC (7-7-1) GB: .5

This would put a tremendous amount of pressure on Andrew to beat the Smurfs in Week 16. In fact, a loss to Jason and KCI (vs Saints) and Wannabees (vs Zou) wins would eliminate Andrew from the playoffs.

There is, of course, a scenario where Andrew wins the division, but that is looking unlikely on the moment. Andrew’s focus should be on beating the Inoculators this weekend.

Wannabees

Two things are on the Wannabees agenda: Don’t get upset and keep his points lead.

An upset loss to Joel would be terrible for Jeff. While it would still be possible for him to make the playoffs, it would be a huge hit to his chances.

The biggest thing that he needs to keep on his mind is his points lead on the Inoculators. It is that number that has him in the position he is in now. He needs to makes sure he maintains that number.

Inoculators

As close as the Inoculators are to the playoffs, Ben is still very, very far away. A win this week guarantees the Inoculators little and Ben also has the toughest of the Week 17 matchups. I think the Inoculators are more likely to be out of the playoffs than in.

5 Observations: Missouri football

Note: I will be writing something similar about KU – and it won’t be happy either – so stay calm, Erik. But feel free to write something if you want.

Observation #1 – Missouri’s season seemed to end after the win over Nebraska.

Missouri beat Nebraska on the road for the first time since Jesus walked the earth to propel MU to a 5-0 start. From that point on, MU was 4-4 and seemed to get worse as the season progressed.

4 Wins
Colorado (5-7): 58-0
Baylor (4-8): 31-28
Kansas St. (5-7): 41-24
Iowa St. (2-10): 52-20

4 Losses
Oklahoma St. (9-3): 28-23
Texas (11-1): 56-31
Kansas (7-5): 40-37
Oklahoma (12-1): 62-21

This isn’t a good sign for Missouri. At least not for a team that was suppose to compete for a National Title. For a team that was suppose get over the big game hurdle and win the Big XII. For a team that was on the fast track to national prominence. What they looked like was a team stuck somewhere between being wildly over-hyped and dreadfully underachieving. Or maybe they were both, I honestly don’t know.

Missouri had no business losing to OKST at home or to a depleted Kansas team on a neutral field. And a team ranked as high as third in the nation should pose a better fight in a conference championship game than their deplorable 62-21 loss to Oklahoma.

Observation #2 – Thinks are not looking good for the 2009 season.

Gary Pinkel’s offensive philosophy almost got him fired a few years ago. My understanding of the story is that Pinkel made the decision to hand over the offense to Christiansen and let him run the spread the season everyone felt was Pinkel was at the end of his rope at MU. Chrisiansen built an offense that, at the very least, made Mizzou a respectable program and gave them some light in the national scene. But Christiansen isn’t the only guy leaving this season, so is half of the offense.

Chase Daniel = Graduated
Chase Coffman = Graduated
Jeremy Maclin = Likely going to the NFL
Tommy Saunders = Graduated
Colin Brown = Graduated
Ryan Madison = Graduated

That’s six offensive starters, three of whom are the core of the offensive boom they’ve experienced the last two seasons, who will be gone in 2009. Who is the playmaker on this team next season?

Derrick Washington was terrible in big games. In the three key games MU played – Oklahoma St., Texas and Oklahoma (I do not count the KU game because nothing could be gained or lost from winning or losing at the time it was played) – Washington rushed for a combined 57 yards on 25 carries (2.28 ypc). If you throw in the Kansas game, he rushed for 111 yards on 36 carries (3.08 ypc). You can interpret this in many ways, but it is clear that MU’s rushing game was non-existent in big games this season.

Blaine Gabbert threw 13 passes this season. As with all young quarterbacks, there will be a learning curve there, but that learning curve is going to happen with Jared Perry and Danario Alexander – who combined this season for fewer catches than Tommy Saunders – as his primary targets and not Jeremy Maclin (presumably) and Chase Coffman.

Andrew Jones is a highly touted tight end recruit who caught 18 passes this season, but are you going to center your entire passing game on a somewhat raw sophomore tight end?

So with no weapons and a head coach whose initial offensive inclination is to pound it out and hope for the best, I don’t see things going well next season.

The Tigers do not have the kind of talent that is ready to replace Daniel, Maclin, Coffman and company anyway. MU will lose 12 of 22 starters to graduation at the end of the season with the prospects of Jeremy Maclin (#2 WR according to ESPN), Sean Weatherspoon (#3 OLB according to ESPN) and Jaron Baston (likely to stay, but is rising draft boards quickly) going pro. This leaves MU replacing 14 starters at least. MU, like most universities not named USC, cannot replace 14 starters, and the core of its most successful teams in recent history, and expect to win 9-plus games next season.

Observation #3 – Mizzou’s success during the Chase Daniel Era (2006-2008).

“Big XII Football since 2006.”

Overall Record (Includes Big XII Championship and Bowl games)
1. OU: 34-7
2. UT: 31-7
3. TT: 28-10
4. MU: 29-11
5. KU: 25-12

Overall Regular Season Conference Record
1. OU: 20-4
2. UT: 18-6
3. MU: 16-8
4. TT: 15-9
5. KU: 14-10

BCS Bowls
OU: 3 bids (2006-2008)
KU: 1 bid (2007)
UT: 1 bid (2008)

Bowls (2008 bids included)
1. UT: 3 bids (Won Alamo Bowl, Won Holiday Bowl)
2. TT: 3 bids (Won Insight Bowl, Won Gator Bowl)
3. OSU: 3 bids (Won Independence Bowl, Won Insight Bowl)
4. MU: 3 bids (Lost Sun Bowl, Won Cotton Bowl)
5. OU: 3 bids (Lost Fiesta Bowl twice)

Note: The five listed schools and Kansas were the only schools who were bowl eligible all three seasons.

Record Against Ranked Teams (Includes Big XII Championship game and Bowls)
1. OU: 11-5 (8-5 vs Top 20; 2-4 vs Top 10)
2. UT: 7-3 (7-3 vs Top 20; 2-3 vs Top 10)
3. MU: 5-6 (2-6 vs Top 20; 1-4 vs Top 10)
4. TT: 5-7 (4-5 vs Top 20; 3-2 vs Top 10)
5. KU: 3-6 (2-5 vs Top 20; 1-4 vs Top 10)

Conference Titles
OU: 3 (2006 - 2008)

Division Titles
OU: 3 (Outright title in 2006 and 2007, shared title with TEX and TT in 2008)
NEB: 2 (Outright title in 2006, shared title with MU in 2008)
MU: 2 (Shared title with KU in 2007, shared title with Nebraska in 2008)
KU: 1 (Shared title with MU in 2007)
TEX: 1 (Shared title with OU and TT in 2008)
TT: 1 (Shared title with OU and TEX in 2008)

Basically what MU has is an 8, 12 and 9 win seasons (one game left of 2008), three bowl bids (one win and another game upcoming) and two Big XII Championship game appearances (and two bad losses to OU). MU was also tied for the third most wins against ranked opponents. Clearly it has been a good time to be an MU fan.

Observation #4: Missouri (and its fans) have misinterpreted their success.

“We have not arrived. I’ve said that … often.” – Gary Pinkel, Head Coach

“Oklahoma is Big 12 champ again, and Missouri again gets to claim runner-up status, even though we realize the distance between No. 1 and No. 2 is more like No. 1 and No. 5.” – Jason Whitlock, KC Star

“You have to figure that Missouri, when it came down to it, just wasn’t that good a football team.” – Joe Posnanski, KC Star

“Mizzou has been punted back into its inglorious past, when its teams had no chance of consistently competing against the sport's elite.” – Bernie Miklasz, St. Louis Post-Dispatch

Now, the situation isn’t as bad as Mr. Miklasz explains it, but part of the reason Miklasz writes these things is because everyone falsely believed Missouri was a championship contender. They’re not; not even close. It seems that Missouri fans were deceived by the point spreads MU put over weak opponents, the athleticism of Jeremy Maclin and their victories over rebuilding/underachieving Nebraska teams. But Texas and Oklahoma showed Missouri fans what Championship teams look like and Missouri is nowhere near that – and if they were, that window is closed now.
Chase Daniel is a good example of Missouri’s season. Daniel had a 15-to-1 TD/INT ratio after the Nebraska game (this means games against such powerhouses as Buffalo, SE Missouri State, Nevada and a “5-7 in the Big 10” Illinois team) and was the Heisman frontrunner. From that point on, Daniel threw at least one interception in each game, finishing with 22 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and a few key fumbles. The kid turned into a turnover machine. There are only 7 quarterbacks in the FBS with more interceptions than Daniel. I’m not saying Daniel sucks, he’s been an excellent college quarterback and will likely end his career with more than 100 career touchdowns, but he’s been very average these last eight weeks and his teams has suffered tremendously for it.

Observation #5: Missouri and Kansas are the same programs.

Yell and scream about that all you want Tigers fans, but it’s true.

Postseason Draft and Keeper Thoughts

Some thoughts on the postseason drafts and keepers.

Draft

For those of you who were not in the postseason draft last year, here is a quick overview of what that looks like and some of the rules.

- The draft is sixteen rounds long, just like the regular season, and will consist of all players who are in the NFL playoffs.
- Draft order is determined by seed. Also, the first round is fixed, so the snake draft does not begin until the second round. So it will go as such:

Round One
First pick: Seed 1
Second pick: Seed 2
Third pick: Seed 3
Fourth pick: Seed 4

Round Two
Fifth pick: Seed 1
Sixth pick: Seed 2
Seventh pick: Seed 3
Eighth pick: Seed 4

Round Three
Ninth pick: Seed 4
Tenth pick: Seed 3
Eleventh pick: Seed 2
Twelfth pick: Seed 1

Round Four
Thirteenth pick: Seed 1
….

The point of this is to give the higher seeds an advantage for finishing with a better record. A pure snake draft would not value a top seed as much as it should.

- Each team may keep up to six (6) players from their regular season roster for the playoffs. The players will count as your 16th round pick and move up a round per player kept. So if you keep four players, you will lose your 13th through 16th round draft picks. Note: I suggest you keep a player who is actually IN THE PLAYOFFS.
- Because of the amount of keepers and there only being four teams, the draft moves really fast so time shouldn’t be too big of a deal.
- There is no free agency in the playoffs. The sixteen players you draft are the sixteen players you get for the whole playoffs, so you may want to consider the quality of team the player is on when you draft them.
- The roster size and the amount of starters is exactly the same as it is in the regular season. QB, RB, RB, RB/WR, WR, WR, TE, DEF, K and seen bench spots.
- The playoffs are a total points contest, not a weekly head-to-head matchup. All of the playoff weeks are added you to give you one big score. Most points wins. Basically, you want as many points as you can get. In the case of the consolation bracket, first place get the number one pick in next year’s draft, second place gets the second pick, third gets the third pick and fourth place gets the fourth pick. Here was last year’s results for the Championship:
- During the playoffs, everyone must post their starting lineups on the appropriate thread that will be provided on the league page. I will keep all of the scores, but I suggest you keep them too just in case I make a mistake.

Here are a few other things to keep in mind. The Championship Playoff and the Consolation Playoff (I’m working on an alternative name for that) are TWO COMPLETELY DIFFERENT DRAFTS!!! This is not one big draft, so all of the same players will available in the Consolation draft as they will be in the Championship draft. Also, the playoff drafts do absolutely nothing to your regular season rosters that you will be selecting keepers for the 2009 season from. You cannot keep someone from your playoff roster for the 2009 season, so don’t do something stupid with your regular season roster.


Keeper Thoughts

After some more thought, I’ve come up with three possible solutions for keepers. Give me your feedback and we’ll vote on it at the end of the season.

Prop. #1 – Two keepers for each team. Players drafted in the first and second round cannot be kept. Undrafted players count as a 12th round pick (if you keep two undrafted players, than it is your 11th and 12th round pick).

Prop. 2 – Same as proposition one only with three keepers.

Prop. 3 – Three keepers and a developmental keeper (a possible four total keepers). Players drafted in rounds one and two cannot be kept. Undrafted players count as a 12th round pick and move up (rounds 11 and 10) for each additional kept undrafted player. A developmental keeper must be a rookie or second year player (in this case, they would have had to be a rookie for the 2007 or 2008 NFL season) and will count as an 8th round draft pick. If you do not have an 8th round pick, it will move up to your next available round (7th round, 6th round, etc.).

Give me your thoughts. The only non-negotiable thing is the first and second round deal. The purpose is to maintain the value of the first and second rounds. I think we noticed this in last season’s fantasy baseball draft. The point is that Brandon Phillips should be drafted fifth overall in any fantasy draft as is what happened in last year’s FBB draft. My shot at a fantasy football equivalent would be taking Antonio Gates with the fifth overall pick in the draft. Agreed? (No, really, I don’t know what the football equivalent of Brandon Phillips is.)

A Four Week Mad Dash or A Catchy Headline I Couldn't Come Up With About the Last Four Weeks of the Season or Longest. Headline. Ever.

With four weeks left in the season, lets breakdown the chances of each team making the playoffs and where they may end up.

The Zou (8-4-1) 1313 points
Four Week Schedule: NG, JLT, WW, NG (Combine Record: 17-29-6)
Current Play:off Seed 1st in Championship Playoff

Upside: By record, he has the easiest schedule of all teams and has the highest scoring team. In addition, he has two matchups against the three win “Not Good” – terrible name – and does not play a team with a winning record.

Downside: At this point, only an injury to Adrian Peterson or a bad case of luck – or the “Steve Slaton Effect” as I like to call it – can hold down Erik at this point.

Best Case Scenario: Top seed in Championship Playoff

Worst Case Scenario: Erik drops a matchup and the Smurfs win out to steal the top seed.

Projection: Top seed in Championship Playoff and Young Kids division winner.

Krunk Smurfs (8-5) 1248 points
Four Week Schedule: KCI, SAS, PBC, KCI (Combine Record: 26-25-1)
Current Playoff Seed: 2nd in Championship Playoff

Upside: Jason controls his own fate. He has the advantage of not having to chase anyone in his division and is only an upset away from the best record in the league. One break and he might be the front runner for the league championship.

Downside: All four of his matchups are within the division, which has handed him three of his five losses. Jason is also dealing with many injury issues, including Clinton Portis and Brian Westbrook. Also, the best quarterback on his roster is Jason Campbell.

Best Case Scenario: Top seed in Championship Playoff

Worst Case Scenario: Injuries mount and the Smurfs miss out on the playoffs entirely.

Projection: 2nd Seed in Championship Playoff as Old Kids division winner.

Inoculators (7-6) 1195 points
Four Week Schedule: KS, PBC, SAS, KS (Combine Record: 28-23-1)
Current Playoff Seed: 3rd in Championship Playoff

Upside: The Inoculators control their own destiny with two matchups with the division leader Smurfs and a matchup apiece with PBC and the Saints. Matchups favor the Inoculators fantasy players for the remainder of the season.

Downside: The Inoculators are the second lowest scoring team in the league. Enough said.

Best Case Scenario: Top seed in Championship Playoff – it’s possible but unlikely. A more likely top end result is a division championship.

Worst Case Scenario: The Inoculators could easily lose out.

Projection: Top seed in consolation playoff.

Pollard’s Brady Crushers (6-6-1) 1283 points
Four Week Schedule: SAS, KCI, KS, SAS (Combine Record: 27-25)
Current Playoff Seed: 4th in Championship Playoff

Upside: PBC has the best draw of the final four matchups in comparison of the rest of the division. Andrew has scored the second most points in the league and currently holds any tie-breaker within the division.

Downside: Luck has not been with PBC for most of the season, but he has been on a bit of an upswing the last few weeks. It is feasible that PBC does not make the playoffs even if he goes 3-1 in the final four weeks – but a 3-1 finish could also win him the division. It’s a very shaky situation for PBC, who has little room for error.

Best Case Scenario: A division title and the second seed in the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: The third seed in the consolation playoff.

Projection: 3rd seed in the Championship playoff

I Still Have Just LT (6-7) 1279 points
Four Week Schedule: WW, ZOU, NG, WW (Combine Record: 21-24-7)
Current Playoff Seed: 1st in Consolation Playoff

Upside: First, JLT doesn’t have to play The Zou twice. Second, JLT had a streak of three straight 100-point weeks snapped (he scored 94 points against the Smurfs… and lost). Finally, he is only four points behind Andrew for the second highest point total in the league, which could help him in potential tie-breaking situation for a playoff spot.

Downside: If the season ended today, Chris would be out of the championship playoff, meaning he needs some help from the teams above him in addition to taking care of business on his end. However, being a half-game out of the playoffs is not a tough mountain to climb.

Best Case Scenario: A division championship is still within reach, but is unlikely. The third seed in the playoffs is a more likely high-end.

Worst Case Scenario: Miss the playoffs and gets 3rd seed in the consolation bracket.

Projection: Fourth seed in Championship playoff.

Saints (6-7) 1238 points
Four Week Schedule: PBC, KS, KCI, PBC (Combine Record: 27-23-2)
Current Playoff Seed: 2nd in Consolation Playoff

Upside: A few weeks ago, I said he was as good as dead. At 6-7, he’s only a half-a-game out of the playoffs. He has nothing to lose at this point after the way his season started.

Downside: Three losses over the last three weeks may be a sign of a return to his early season form… which was not a good thing.

Best Case Scenario: Tony takes advantage of not having to play the Smurfs twice and steals a wildcard spot away from the Inoculators – the more likely team to not make the playoffs of the current playoff teams.

Worst Case Scenario: Tony maintains his trend and misses the playoffs.

Projection: 3rd seed in consolation bracket.

Weseloh Wannabees (5-6-2) 1213 points
Four Week Schedule: JLT, NG, ZOU, JLT (Combine Record: 23-26-3)
Current Playoff Seed: 3rd in Consolation Playoff

Upside: His two ties are not losses and he put up 138 points last week.

Downside: The Wannabees are 1-3-1 in the last five weeks, though his win was last week. Also, there are a lot of teams ahead of him that he needs to jump over in order to get to the playoffs.

Best Case Scenario: Going 3-1 in the final four weeks is not out of the question. This may be enough for him to steal a fourth seed in the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: As likely as 3-1 is, so is 1-3. This wouldn’t be good for Weseloh.

Projection: 2rd seed in consolation bracket.

Not Good (3-8-2) 1068 points
Four Week Schedule: ZOU, WW, JLT, ZOU (Combine Record: 27-21-4)
Current Playoff Seed: 4th in Consolation Playoff

Upside: Destroying WW and JLT’s playoff hopes.

Downside: At this point, there is no downside.

Best Case Scenario: There really isn’t a best case scenario at this point aside from not having the four seed in the consolation bracket.

Worst Case Scenario: None.

Projection: 4th seed in consolation bracket.

Overall Standings for Playoff Spot

#Zou (8-4-1; 1313 pts) GB: -
#Smurfs (8-5; 1248 pts) GB: -
%Inoculators (7-6; 1195 pts) GB: -
%PBC (6-6-1; 1283 pts) GB: -
Just LT (6-7; 1279 pts) GB: .5
Saints (6-7; 1238 pts) GB: .5
Wannabees (5-6-2; 1213 pts) GB: 1
Not Good (3-8-2; 1068 pts) GB: 3
# = Division Leader
% = Wildcard

Division Standings

Old Kids
Smurfs (8-5; 1248 pts) GB: -
Inoculators (7-6; 1195 pts) GB: 1
PBC (6-6-1; 1283 pts) GB: 1.5
Saints (6-7; 1238 pts) GB: 2

Young Kids
Zou (8-4-1; 1313 pts) GB: -
Just LT (6-7; 1279 pts) GB: 2.5
Wannabees (5-6-2; 1213 pts) GB: 2.5
Not Good (3-8-2; 1068 pts) Eliminated

Overall Standing for Top Seed in Playoffs

Zou (8-4-1; 1313 pts) GB: -
Smurfs (8-5; 1248 pts) GB: .5
Inoculators (7-6; 1195 pts) GB: 1.5
PBC (6-6-1; 1283 pts) GB: 2
Just LT (6-7; 1279 pts) GB: 2.5
Saints (6-7; 1238 pts) GB: 2.5
Wannabees (5-6-2; 1213 pts) GB: 3
Not Good (3-8-2; 1068 pts) Eliminated

Thoughts

First, sorry for the lack of blog posts. I need to do better.

Second, a message to Andrew: Stop being bitter. No one needs to hear about how "unlucky" you are. There is no luck in fantasy sports (**previous sentence typed with heavy sarcasm**). If you're so unlucky, write a blog about it, bitch. Get over yourself.

Third, I want to apologize to Tony for saying that his season was over the last time I wrote a blog post. He's won five of his last six and should be commended for that. I still think you're gay though.

Fourth, three guys I severely regret dropping: Matt Ryan (ugh), Anthony Gonzalez, the Jets D/ST (see last Sunday).

Odd Statistical Finding #1: Apparently, there is a home field advantage in fantasy football – who knew? Six of the eight teams in our league have a .500 or better record at home (Jeff is 1-4, Andrew is 2-3). Only three teams, Jason (3-3), Erik (3-1) and Jeff (3-1-1) have winning records on the "road". Weird. For space eating sake, here is this week's schedule with home/away records:

Wannabees (Road: 3-1-1) at Inoculators (Home: 4-1)

The Zou (Road: 3-1) at Saints (Home: 4-0)

Just LT (Road: 1-3) at Crushers (Home: 2-3)

Not Good (0-4-1) at Smurfs (Home: 2-2)

Odd Statistical Finding #2: Andrew is 0-5 against the Young Kids division. Andrew sucks.

Looking Back at Guys I Thought Would Not Be As Good After the First Four Weeks or The Longest Title for a Worthless Time-Wasting Segment Ever

Guys I Thought Would Slow Down:

Frank Gore: First 4 Games = 89 points (18.5 Points Per Week), Last 5 Games = 66 (13.2 ppw)

Brandon Marshall: F4 = 64 (16 ppw), L5 = 32 (6.4 ppw)

Larry Fitzgerald: F4 = 70 (17.5 ppw), L5 = 64 (12.8 ppw)

Michael Turner: F4 = 89 (22.25 ppw), L5 = 66 (13.2 ppw)

Kurt Warner: F4 = 79 (19.75 ppw), L5 = 114 (22.8 ppw) – oops.

Anquan Boldin: F4 = 76 (19 ppw), L5 = 57 (11.4 ppw)

(It should be noted that Boldin missed two weeks with an injury and in his last three games has averaged 19 points a week.)

A List of Guys Tyler Thigpen Out Fantasy Pointed Last Week or A List of Guys I Never Would Have Thought I Would Say Tyler Thigpen Was Better Than (At Least For A Week):

Peyton Manning

Donovan McNabb

Ben Roethlisberger

Brett Favre

Tom Brady

Tony Romo

LaDainian Tomlinson

Brian Westbrook

Every Wide Receiver except for Eddie Royal (!) and Reggie Wayne.

Thoughts On The Chiefs

First off, the Chiefs have been far more entertaining to watch the last three weeks than the first six. Tyler Thigpen is far more easy on the eye than Brodie Croyle or Damon Huard have ever been. I like that we are competing and are not getting shelled week after week.

With that said, here are my three concerns.

First, what are the odds that, in a year we will likely go 1-15 or 2-14 that the NFL – the parity league – produces an 0-16 team? Seriously, we're cursed. Here is the remaining schedule for the Lions: @ CAR (7-2), vs TB (6-3), vs TEN (9-0), vs MIN (5-4), @ IND (5-4), vs NO (4-5), @ GB (4-5).

Second, I am fearful that with the success of Tyler Thigpen the Chiefs will fail to draft a quarterback in the first or second round. Look, Tyler has played three good games, but he is still the guy who laid that Atlanta turd. In addition, the Chiefs have played such stellar pass defenses as the Jets and the Chargers. And when we played Tampa Bay, the one good defense we've played the last three weeks, Thigpen managed just 164 yards passing. It's not that I don't hope he's the real deal, because I REALLY REALLY REALLY REALLY do. But at the same time, Derek Anderson looked like the real deal last season and look where he is now. The Chiefs still need to be thinking QB with one of their two top 35 picks.

Third, the Chiefs defense sucks. Here are a series of sexy rankings.

Yards Per Game (406.2) = 32^nd

Points Per Game (27) = 27^th

Pass Yards Per Game (233.9) = 24^th

Rush Yards Per Game (172.3) = 32nd

Third Down Percentage (51%) = 32^nd (teams convert 51% -FIFTY-ONE PERCENT!!!!!!!!!!!! – of their third downs against the Chiefs! AAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!)

We will have nearly $50 million in cap space next season assuming the rumors of LJ getting cut and Tony G. getting traded come true – that and the additional cap space increase that happens after every season. Freaking sign one of the following guys please:

Albert Haynesworth

Terrell Suggs

Nnamdi Asomugha

Jonathan Vilma

Karlos Dansby

One of those five guys has to be going after the highest bidder, right? I mean, we could almost double anybody else's offer. One of them has to accept it, am I right???? Am I RIGHT?!?!?!one!!!???11??!one111!!??/!??!?$@#?!@??!#@?#?$@#?$?@#?!!??? GOD OUR DEFENSE SUCKS!!!!

(Note: They did play well last Sunday for the most part.)

Power Rankings

1. Zou
   
2. Saints
   
3. Smurfs
   
4. Just LT
   
5. Brady Crushers
   
6. Wannabees
   
7. Inoculators
   
8. Not Good (Joel, how do you always come up with the gayest names? Seriously, how do you do that?)
   

As the Chiefs Turn: Episode 1

[It is 736 a.m. Wednesday morning and the Chiefs return to practice for the first time since their 34-0 loss to Carolina three days earlier. Carl Peterson is outside the facility in a leather jacket and dark sunglasses, sitting and smoking a cigar while watching the sun continue its daily ascent. This peaceful morning is disturbed by a black Escalade sending deep bass vibrations through the air, shaking the ground. From the Escalade steps Larry Johnson who promptly tips his driver, flashes the Diamond Cutter sign and walks towards Peterson.]

Johnson: Sup, King Carl. [Johnson bends down to one knee to kiss Peterson's ring then rises.]

Peterson: Beautiful morning isn't it?

Johnson: Sumthin' like that. See the game Sunday?

Peterson: No. There was no need.

Johnson: Permission to speak freely, sir.

Peterson: Granted.

Johnson: I still can't believe you're paying me $42 million to rush for two yards on seven carries.

[They each erupt in laughter, engaging in a hybrid handshake-hug.]

Johnson: But, no, really, I can't believe you did that.

Peterson: Well, I owed you for the first three years of production. Besides, we couldn't just sell Tony Gonzalez jerseys. We needed diversity.

Johnson: Damn straight.

Peterson: Anything on your mind?

Johnson: Well, we need to talk about the Plasma TV in my locker. It is starting to – [Tony Gonzalez has arrived to the facility and is walking towards Johnson and Peterson.] I've got to go. Later, King. [Peterson nods.]

Peterson: Tony!

Gonzalez: What the fuck is going on?!?! You said you'd fix this shit.

Peterson: It's a process, Tony, you know that. I thought you'd be happy today after setting the all-time receiving yards by a tight end record. Did you know I drafted you?

Gonzalez: I should have set that record at home, you know that. But that is besides the point. We got our asses handed to us Sunday, what are we going to do about it? We have a bye this week, there's gotta be someone we can trade for or sign to bring in here and start at quarterback for us.

Peterson: Have you forgotten that Brodie returns this week?

Gonzalez: That kid sucks! He get's hurt in every other game he starts. What are you –

Peterson: Tony, Tony, Tony. You're starting to sound like those media guys, that's not the Tony I remember. Now you and I both know that Brodie is the next Brett Favre. Everyone in my front office says so. Clark Hunt agreed with me when he called me last week from Fiji. We all know our bright future rests in his hands starting in about four or five years.

Gonzalez: But I'm not going to be around in four or five years, Carl.

Peterson: How do you know? I'll keep you around. There is no age limit to when it comes to resigning players. Think of the guys I have signed: Ty Law, Patrick Surtain, Damian MacIntosh, Adrian Jones, Sammie Knight, Trent Green, Eddie Kennison and so on and so forth. You know I will resign you for as long as I possibly can. If we didn't, we wouldn't have anyone's jersey to sell, would we?

Gonzalez: I don't know, Carl. You said we would be Super Bowl contenders by now. I've played in two playoff games in my entire career, I want to win something someday.

Peterson: Hey, Tony, winning? It's overrated. Look how long I've had my job and I haven't won anything. Look at all the money I'm making, the friends I have. Remember when I had lunch with President Bush last year? How many other teams who didn't win the Super Bowl are having President Bush come and have dinner with them? No one. Look, you still have a lot to learn, Tony. Look at what Larry is doing right now. He's hanging with Jay-Z, making rap albums, bashing the media, you know there is a lot you can learn from him. Heck, his contract is worth more than yours.

Gonzalez: …

Peterson: Go get ready for practice and think about what I just told you.

[Meanwhile, while Herm Edwards is in his office reviewing the week's game plan, Jamal Charles walks in.]

Charles: Coach?

Edwards: Huh? Hey! Hey, come on in JC, what's goin' on?

Charles: Hey, um, I know I'm a rookie and everything and I don't want to be out of line when I say this, but –

Edwards: Now, now, Jamal, think about what you're going to say before you say it. Think really hard.

Charles: Yeah, well, I have thought about it really hard and I think I should be getting more touches early in the game. I feel like I can help us win games if I got the ball earlier. I'm not sayin' Larry shouldn't be starting or anything, but I'm just sayin' that I can help the team if I got the ball a little more earlier in the game.

Edwards: Jamal, come now. You and I both know we can't do that. Larry is the heart and soul of this team.

Charles: Yeah, about that… um… nobody likes him so much. Actually, I don't think I've ever talked to him before. He just kinda stares at me when I say "Hi" and then walks off.

Edwards: Psh, Larry wouldn't do that. I know Larry and Larry isn't like that. You're just getting a little rookie hazing, that's all.

Charles: Well, that's what I thought at first. But then, the other day, I was going through my locker and there was a knife with a note taped to it and it said, "Don't fuckin' think about taking my job away, Love LJ" and he was just there staring at me.

Edwards: Nah, I know Larry and he definitely would have used a Gat if he wanted you taken out. At least that's what he did with me a couple of weeks ago… But, yeah, he's not like that. I think you're just being messed with a little – and it's okay. It's okay to be messed with a little. It makes you a better player. Look what it's done for Pat Thomas and Rudy Niswanger.

Charles: Well, right… [Charles squirms in his chair and trys to avoid direct eye contact with Larry Johnson who is now peering at him through the window of Edwards' office.] Anyway, I just wanted to see if I could get a few more touches, that's all.

Edwards: Now, Jamal, you've got a lot to learn. Being a coach in this league, being a guy who has to put stuff together, game plans, its not that easy. You see other teams, teams like who we'll be facin', they'll be thinkin', "Wow, we need to prepare for this Charles kid, he's pretty good." And you know what happens when other teams start thinking about you? [Charles shakes his head.] They stop thinking about Larry. And when they stop thinking about Larry then that means we have a chance to win some football games. And we play to win the game, right? That's what we play for, to win the game.

But, there is something I want to show you, a new package for next week. [Charles sits up a little straighter, continuing to avoid the eye contact of Johnson.] This, this right here, this is what is going to turn our season around. It's the wishbone and you're going to be a part of it.

Charles: Oh, so, you're going to have me and LJ in the backfield at the same time then, that's cool.

Edwards: Oh no, no, no, no, no. [Edwards lets out a hardy laugh.] Rookies… No, we want you to play right tackle. I saw that block you threw on that one pass play a few weeks ago –

Charles: The one where Brodie ended up getting hurt?

Edwards: Yeah, that one. That was a great block. Anyway, we want you to play left tackle –

Charles: You mean right tackle?

Edwards: Don't interrupt me son. As I was sayin', you're going to play right tackle, but what we are going to do is we are going to line you up so that you'd be considered an eligible receiver.

Charles: So, I'm really playing tight end then?

Edwards: Yeah, right, point guard. So, what we are going to do is have LJ and Will Smith in the backfield and –

Charles: Will?

Edwards: Yeah, he's our primary back in this set. We're trying to mix things up a little here, Jamal.

Charles: You know, we ran this one play at Texas where we had a two-tight end set in the I-formation and we just gave the ball to me and I just ran it up the middle. That normally worked pretty well.

Edwards: [Edwards gives him a confused look.] So, you'll be the third baseman and LJ and Smith will be in the backfield. But here's the kicker now, the thing that no one is going to expect: Derrick Johnson will be the quarterback. Huh! What do ya think of that?! Genius!

Charles: [Charles looks at Edwards blankly.] Who do I talk to about being traded?

[On the other end of the complex, Bernard Pollard and Jarred Page are working on tackling drills with Gunther Cunningham.]

Cunningham: No, no! Fucking ass fuckers, you use your balls not you brain when you fuckin' tackle somebody! Do it right you goddamn mother fuckers or I'll fuck your skulls until they fucking bleed football jiz!

Page and Pollard: What?

Cunningham: Brainless turd whipes.

Page: You know, I wouldn't be that bad at tackling if some of your linebackers would do the job for me before backs ever get to the secondary. I mean DeAngelo Williams is about six-times my size. How the hell am I supposed tackle that guy on every other play?

Cunningham: With your balls, bitch, with your balls! Now fucking hit that mother fuckin' dummy you motherless son of a bitch!

[Page runs through the tackling dummy using proper technique. Pollard follows by trying to tackle the dummy with just his legs. He fails.]

Cunningham: What the fuck are you doing, Pollard?!

Pollard: Using my balls.

Cunningham: Now THAT'S how you fuck over a fucking tackling dummy mother fuckers! Hey, Williams, Thomas, Johnson, Practice Squad Guy, get over here! [All the linebackers, even the unnamed ones start jogging towards Cunningham.] No, no, Harris you fucking go back to fucking yourself. You fucking suck. Just the good linebackers, here, now! [All the linebackers except Harris now surround Cunningham. Cunningham takes a deep breath and begins to calmly speak to his troops.] I coached Derrick fucking Thomas. I coached Neil fucking Smith. I am responsible for Dale Carter's addiction to crack. But none of them, and I mean none of them, had the balls of steel Bernard fucking Pollard has. [Everyone looks to Pollard in shock. Pollard stares back at his teammates in kind.] Now, Pollard, show them how a man tackles a fucking football player. [Pollard proceeds to tackle the tackling dummy with his legs. Quiet snickers from those who bothered to pay attention ensue.] That's… [Cunningham begins to tear up.] That's how you fuck up a dummy. Learn from that men, learn from that.

[A few hours later Kevin Keitzman begins his segment with Jack Harry.]

Harry: The Chiefs suck. Suck suck suck suck suck suck suck ticket prices suck suck suck suck Carl Peterson suck suck suck suck quarterback suck suck suck suck suck suck suck suck the draft suck suck suck suck suck suck suck suck sucks Herm Edwards suck suck suck suck suck suck suck 2 yards rushing suck suck suck suck suck suck $42 million suck suck suck suck salary cap suck suck suck suck suck no Super Bowl appearances suck suck suck suck suck suck 20 years suck suck suck suck suck suck I'm an old grumpy man suck suck suck suck suck suck Clark Hunt.

Keitzman: I couldn't agree more. I just… wow… Do you want to make love later?

Harry: Yes, I'd like that, Kevin.

Danny Klinksdale: Can I join in? Make it a threesome?

Harry and Keitzman: No.

[Soren Petro turns on a mike and begins talking.]

Petro: Sorry to break in on the love fest, but I think some people are missing the point. Yes, Peterson and Edwards share a lot of the blame for the turd they laid Sunday, but think about this for a minute. The Chiefs are going to be about $45 million under the salary cap this offseason and have a bunch of high draft picks. If the Chiefs go out there and have another draft like they did last offseason in April, find a quarterback and allow the natural progression of some of their younger players, the Chiefs have a shot at having a decent season in 2009.

Keitzman: But did you see Sunday's game? Carl Peterson has been here for 20 years and I hate him.

Petro: I understand and I don't always agree with what Peterson and Edwards do on a week to week basis, but the point is that the Chiefs have a chance this offseason to go out and draft a quarterback, sign some good free agents and have a solid roster for next season.

Keitzman: No playoff wins in 15 years!

Petro: [Brief silence.] I understand, but you have to look at the bigger picture here. Herb Taylor played a hell of a game against a perennial All-Pro D-end in Julius Peppers, whose name was only called once and that was because Damon Huard didn't have the ability to take one freaking step up in the pocket and deliver the ball because he sucks. Taylor and Albert look like they can anchor the ends for a long time in Kansas City. If the Chiefs can just go out there and find themselves a center and guard, maybe Richardson can be that guard, draft a quarterback then the Chiefs could be a decent team next season and be well on their way to a playoff-type roster.

Harry: But Carl Peterson.

Keitzman: Yeah, Carl Peterson. I hate that guy.

Petro: [Extended silence.] But the Chiefs can easily go out there and fill some major holes this offseason. There are a ton of guys out there who can fit into what the Chiefs are trying to do. And it looks like the draft is shaping up in a way that favors what the Chiefs need.

Keitzman: Carl. Peterson. Parking. Prices. 20. Years.

Petro: [A more extended silence.] Fine. The Chiefs suck. Suck suck suck suck suck suck suck ticket prices suck suck suck suck Carl Peterson suck suck suck suck quarterback suck suck suck suck…

Keitzman: Ah! [Harry and Keitzman let out a hardy chuckle.] I knew you would see the light buddy.

Petro: …

Keitzman: Thanks for coming on, man.

Petro: Right, anytime.

Keitzman: Ah, Petro is a good guy. So, Jack, about the love making thing...

Quarter-Season Rant/Review/Revision

The Rant

I think now would be the time to let everyone know that the fantasy gods hate me. What other reason would my team be 2-2 at this point? Really? What in God's name was Wade Phillips thinking only giving the ball to Marion Barber eight times (EIGHT!) last week? When did Steve Slaton decide to be Jesus in cleats, but only when he's not starting on my team? I lead the league in bench points with 236 so far this season. Now, you're going to say I've looked up everyone else's bench points and then compared them. Well, you'd be wrong there, buddy, because my gut says the fantasy god's are screwing with my team on purpose. I strongly feel Sarah Palin has something to do with this, but I'm not quite sure yet.

I would also like to this time to send a message to Mr. T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Mr. Braylon Edwards: STOP SUCKING ON PURPOSE YOU SONS OF BITCHES!!! What the hell, man? Houshmandzadeh has had one good game (and wouldn't you know it, he was on my bench) where he scored 25 points against the Giants. Aside from that game, Edwards and Houshmandzadeh have combined for 25 points in the other 7 games they've played in. Seriously, what the hell?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

I would also like to take this time to announce that Drew Brees and Jay Cutler are tied for the lead in fantasy points out of all fantasy players. Drew Brees and Jay Cutler. I think now would be a good time to note that the Chiefs could have had either of those players, but did not.

Drew Brees – Free Agent signing in 2006; 6-year, $60 million

Jay Cutler – Draft by Broncos with 11^th overall pick after trading their 15^th and 68^th overall pick to St. Louis. STL got Tye Hill and Claude Wroten with those picks. An equivalent trade with the Rams would have prevented the Chiefs from drafting Tamba Hali and one Brodie Croyle. Ingle Martin was taken in the fifth round of that draft by the way. I would trade Brodie Croyle and Tamba Hali for Jay Cutler RIGHT NOW if I could. But we can't. Son of a bitch.

I think now would be a bad time to mention that Andrew owns both Brees and Cutler.

Anyway, fantasy has not been kind to me this season. I can't wait until Andrew goes in a recession the likes our economy is in. Also, what is the deal with all these ties??? STOP IT!!!

The Review

Through the first four weeks of the season, I think there are two teams that we can push off the cliff: The JQ's and Marc's (small) Bulger (or is that Trent Green's?).

JQ was hit by the injury of Tom Brady (rendering Randy Moss useless and unmotivated), thinking Eli Manning was a good fantasy option, buying into the Brandon Jacobs hype, drafting Steven Jackson, and having eight players on his roster being ranked 15^th or worse (that would be half his roster). The good news is that it appears he has an excellent keeper prospect in Aaron Rodgers and a good shot going the entire season with as many wins as the Chiefs.

MB just sucks. First of all, Ryan Grant equals REALLY overrated. Second, he has one running back ranked in the top 20 (one). Third, he has 11 players ranked 20^th or worse at their positions on his roster. At least he has Chris Johnson as a keeper prospect. Additionally, it is completely possible he goes the entire season without winning a matchup (I write that knowing he is going to beat me when I face him; It will also be his only win).

Players with Fast Starts Who Will Slow Down Over the Next Four Weeks

PBC – Frank Gore, Brandon Marshall, Larry Fitzgerald

Frank Gore has rushed against three terrible defenses in Arizona, Detroit and New Orleans. Over the next four weeks, Gore will face far more stiff competition in New England (coming off a BYE), Philly, Giants, and Seattle (held Gore to 61 yards in week two). Gore has a BYE in week nine.

You would think, at some point, defenses would figure out Brandon Marshall is the only guy Cutler throws the ball too. Marshall has Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and at New England before a BYE in week eight.

Larry Fitzgerald is about to have to have another new quarterback (again) and will have Buffalo, Dallas, a BYE week and Carolina the next four weeks.

Just LT – Michael Turner, Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin

Turner has 89 fantasy points in four weeks with 80 of them coming against Detroit and KC. Against decent to good defenses (TB and CAR) he has 9 fantasy points. The next four weeks he has Green Bay, Chicago, a BYE and Philly. Weeks nine through eleven will be his next big point games if he is still alive by then.

Warner is on the verge of losing his job for the next few weeks. He'll get it back though, don't worry.

Boldin (see: Fitgerald, Larry).

The Revision

Here is my updated power rankings:

1. PBC
   
2. ZOU
   
3. Inoculators
   
4. Wannabees
   
5. Smurfs
   
6. Just LT
   
7. JQ's
   
8. Marc's Bulger