The best blog about the DTBC fantasy football league in the world.

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Championship Rosters

Here are the rosters for the Championship Bracket.


 

Erik's Roster

Peyton Manning

Adrian Peterson

Willie Parker

Le'Ron McClain

Reggie Wayne

Roddy White

Michael Turner

Steve Smith

Brandon Jacobs

Eli Manning

Santonio Holmes

Kevin Boss

Justin Gage

PHI DEF/ST

IND DEF/ST

Adam Vinatieri


 

Jason's Roster

DeAngelo Williams

Brian Westbrook

Vincent Jackson

David Akers

Giants DEF/ST

Kurt Warner

Chris Johnson

Hines Ward

Bernard Berrian

Vicente Shiancoe

Derrick Mason

Mewelde Moore

Ben Roethlisberger

MIN DEF/ST

Bo Scaife

John Carney


 

Ben's Roster

Phillip Rivers

Dallas Clark

Rod Bironas

Joe Flacco

Derrick Ward

Chad Pennington

LaDanian Tomlinson

Ronnie Brown

BAL DEF/ST

LenDale White

Antonio Gates

Jake Delhomme

Mark Clayton

TEN DEF/ST

Chris Chambers

Nate Kaeding


 

Andrew's Roster

Jonathan Stewart

Larry Fitzgerald

Anthony Fasano

PIT DEF/ST

Jason Elam

Donovan McNabb

Anquan Boldin

DeShawn Jackson

Willis McGahee

Joseph Addai

Mushin Muhammad

Anthony Gonzalez

Heath Miller

Armani Toomer

Kerry Collins

Correll Buckhalter

Sunday, December 28, 2008

LIVE BLOG: Chiefs v Bengals 4th Quarter

Fourth Quarter

14:15

The Chiefs have not cross midfield since William Wallace was six years old. They finally do, but can’t do anything with it as the turn the ball over on downs.

You know those Bud Light commercials where the guy is writing in thin air maps and such? I really wish I could do that. As a matter of fact, I wish I could do most things that happen in beer commercials.

13:35

RAMS UPDATE: A field goal pushes the Rams to within a touchdown. Still plenty of time life.

13:12

Cedric Benson could be an interesting fantasy option next season. Carson Palmer will be back but it can be assumed he won’t be fully back, meaning they will rely on the run a little more than usual. The way Benson has looked the last couple of weeks he might have a decent season in 2009. Wouldn’t be interesting if he gets traded for T.J. Houshmandzadeh but this time Benson has the crazy good season and T.J. sucks?

10:55

The Chiefs finally get a sack!!! Of course, it was a terrible sack. Boone had him first, but completely whiffed on the tackle. Babin ended up getting him after Fitzpatrick couldn’t get around his own lineman.

10:07

Robinson didn’t fumble, but he might as well have… Chiefs ball on the 7ish.

9:32

Tyler Thigpen can’t throw the deep ball. He under-threw Bradley badly, but the DB mistimed his jump. This gave Bradley a chance to catch the ball but he couldn’t hold onto it.

Tony Gonzalez followed that play up with his second catch of the drive. 9 more catches….

8:34

Bowe with another catch. He needs 40 more yards to get 1000. I predict he’ll get 35.

8:13

Thigpen fumbles the handoff, Bengals recover. Thigpen has looked terrible in this game, much the same way he looked in the Falcons game earlier this season.

He is 13-27 for 106 yards.

7:28

DERRICK JOHNSON JUST LIT UP CEDRIC BENSON!!!! How is Benson not dead??????????

6:40

Fourth Most Accurate Kicker In NFL History Shane Graham hits another field goal to extend the lead to 16-0, despite the fact that boring announcer guy said 17-0.

6:15

RAMS UPDATE: Rams score somehow, I’m too lazy to look it up – probably was Steven Jackson, and tie the game at 24. Don’t get too excited because, one, it is the Rams and, two, there is still 13 minutes left in the game.

The Lions game is still tied at 14. I kind of want that game to end in a tie now. 0-15-1. Would that be worse that 0-16?

5:57

Technical difficulties by CBS has forced to Plax myself. It really hurts. What was that guy thinking?

4:44

Mark Bradley was just called for a false start. Ugh.

4:08

Dwayne Bowe!!! Holy crap what a catch!!! I hope they challenge it, because I think he scored. Nice throw by Thigpen too. Could have used more of those…

On the previous play, Gonzalez caught a pass. 8 more catches…

Bowe has 10 catches for 103 yards. That puts him over 1000 yards. Statistically, Bowe is special. Now if he can just make those clutch catches and add some consistency…

Still waiting on the replay…























Play stands. Ball placed at the one. Sucks for Bowe. Got his grand (1000 yards) though.

3:15

Chiefs have failed on three straight attempts to get into the endzone from the one. Play include: a fade to TG, LJ getting stuffed for no gain, a terrible pass to LJ.

On fourth down, they throw a fade to Bowe for a touchdown, but Bowe is called for offensive pass interference (tough call).

On fourth and goal part two, the Bengals are call for pass interference in the endzone. Ugly football.

3:00

On the second first and goal, LJ is tackled for a loss on a sweep-type play.

On second down, the Thigpen finally hits TG for the touchdown. 7 more catches…

Chiefs fail to convert the two-point conversion.

2:20

Green Bay is up on the Lions by 10 with 8 minutes left. 0-16 here we come!

STL and ATL are still tied, but the Rams have a 3rd and 9 on the Falcons 10 with 7 minutes left.

2:18

Leon Hall does not pull a Dwayne Bowe and holds onto the onside kick. One first down and the game is over. 2-14. Geez…

2:14

DeAngelo Williams: 163

Chiefs Rushing: 31

2:00

Benson runs for a first down, which should effectively end the game.

RAMS UPDATE: Rams hit a field goal to go up 27-24. I still think the Falcons will win the game.

Detroit scores, don’t know how, to get within 3 points of Green Bay.

1:30

Benson breaks 100 yards, which is good news for my fantasy team. Bad news for the Chiefs. The Chiefs have lost 23 of their last 25 games. Ouch.

:30

Fitzpatrick takes a knee. Bengals win. Chiefs season is done. 2-14. Terrible. Well, I guess we could be the Lions…

UPDATES: Within seconds of each other, the Packers and Falcons each score touchdowns. The Lions and Rams suck.

LIVE BLOG: Chiefs v Bengals 3rd Quarter

Third Quarter

15:00

Good news: The Chiefs are a terrible second half team. Wait that’s bad news… ON WITH THE SECOND HALF!!!

RAMS UPDATE: Rams 14, Falcons 17. I truly hope Atlanta sits all of its starters in the second half. Please, sit your starters.

14:57

DeAngelo Williams: 143 yards (15 carries)
Chiefs: 50 total yards (51 penalty yards)

Tyler Thigpen is a fantastic 5-14 for 38 yards. The good news is that … ummm … well, I haven’t figured that out yet. I’ll get back to you.

I just heard on the radio that Herm Edwards press conference tomorrow is scheduled for 11:30. This is much earlier than usual (especially for an end of the season press conference). There is speculation that Herm will resign at the conference. Silver lining.

13:27

The Chiefs blitzed all three linebackers and failed to get to the quarterback. God our pass rush sucks.

12:47

JARROD PAGE!!! He just destroyed Cedric Benson. Seventh round…

12:01

Have I mentioned that the Bengals have 23 players on IR (NOT including Carson Palmer) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson are not active today? Oh, I didn’t know I had. Sorry about that.

With that said, first down Bengals. (19th first down of the day.)

10:25

It is times like these that I am glad God invented beer. And, yes, God is an inventor – I know I’m sooo controversial.

9:38

Derrick Johnson REALLY needs to work on his hands this spring and summer. He just dropped an easy TAINT (interception for a touchdown).

8:54

The Bengals have a mere 16 sacks this season (three more than the league record for fewest sacks). With this said, they still have 7 more sacks than the Chiefs.

8:09

The Chiefs finally make the Bengals punt for the first time today. Of course, the Bengals down it inside the five.

RAMS UPDATE: Rams 14, Falcons 24. If both the Chiefs and Rams lose, a coin toss will determine who has the 2nd overall pick in the draft. The more I think about it, what really is the difference between the second and third overall pick? Half a billion dollars in signing bonus’?

6:40

FIRST DOWN CHIEFS!!! Granted, Bowe pushed Leon Hall to the ground before he caught the ball (a penalty should have been called) but who cares. LJ follows that up with an 11 yard run. Back to back first downs doubles our total first downs for the game. We still have fewer yards that DeAngelo Williams though.

5:13

Bowe has caught about 345345 short screens in this game (actually that number is about five) and, after the three yard loss on this one, I hope it is the last catch he has on a screen in this game.

5:01

Tony Gonzalez makes his first catch of the game. He needs 11 more…

3:08

Chiefs punt. Again. Ugh.

51-yard punt by Colquitt goes into the endzone.

2:30

Cedric Benson just now returned from his hit delivered by Page. Sweet.

1:39

Holy crap the Chiefs force a three and out. Robinson returns the punt. Every time he touches the ball I’m convinced he is going to fumble. He hasn’t – yet.

Now seems like a good time to tell you that the Packers and Lions are tied at 14. Calvin Johnson has two touchdown catches.

Williams has 155 yards rushing.

STL is still losing.

:42

I would respect Dhani Jones a lot more if he wore a bow-tie during games.

:00

The Bengals get a sack, only they needed to cheat to do it (facemask). Maybe the Chiefs should look into that cheating thing…

One quarter remaining in the Chiefs season. COMEBACK BEGINS NOW!!!

LIVE BLOG: Chiefs v Bengals 2nd Quarter

Second Quarter

15:00

Tony Gonzalez needs to average four catches a quarter now in order to break his own record. I still feel this is within range…

14:47

Tyler Thigpen throws an incomplete pass on 3 and 11. When the ball landed, there were zero Chiefs and five Bengals in the picture. And, of course, the pass was intended for Tony Gonzalez.

14:21

Andre Caldwell runs 79,621 yards in order to gain 25 yards on a reverse. Caldwell has looked very good in the first quarter and change. The Bengals have seven plays of 10 yards or more already in the game.

The Bengals are ranked 32nd in total offense and points per game this season. The Bengals are without Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Fantastic.

11:41

Cedric Benson runs for the Bengals eighth play of 10 yards or more. The Bengals are two yards away from a touchdown.

10:57

Cedric Benson. Touchdown. 10-0 Bengals. It is the 6 rushing touchdown for the Bengals this season. Live blogging Chiefs games is both historic and depressing.

On a more positive note, Cedric Benson is on my fantasy team this week. I’ll see your DeAngelo Williams with a “Cedric Benson playing the Chiefs,” Jason!

10:51

Charles is finally out on the field as a running back. I just learned from the most boring announcers in announcing history that Charles is averaging 7 yards per touch. This makes me mad.

10: 48

Chiefs: Three possessions, three punts.

32 Offense (Bengals): Three possessions, two scores.

Ben: Three possessions, three suicide attempts.

10:10

Make that four possessions, four punts. Somehow, Larry Johnson manages to gain zero yards on a third and one run.

MVP Dustin Colquit has a 55-yard punt that puts the Bengals inside the 10.

8:13

Awesomely bad movie: The Spirit. Scarlett Johansson and Eva Mendes are smoking hot in that movie. I have no idea what the plot was, but I do know Johansson and Mendes wore a splendidly limited amount of clothing.

8:07

The Chiefs defense has just managed to pull off a defensive holding and facemask on the same play. I think the Chiefs have more yard in penalties than offensive yards. I’ll check that.

6:41

Chiefs Total Offensive yards: 42

Chiefs Penalty Yards: 51

DeAngelo Williams: 107 yards (12 carries)

5:40

Cedric Benson suddenly looks like Walter Peyton. Chiefs defense: Reviving washed up players careers for the past decade.

4:11

“It seems as if Cincinnati has a real good feel on how to counteract whatever the Chiefs are doing on defense.” – Boring announcer guy

Reminder: The Bengals are the 32nd ranked offense in the NFL.

2:43

Ryan Fitzpatrick looks like Tyler Thigpen. This is not a good thing for the Chiefs future at quarterback.

2:01

HOLY SHIT I SAW GLENN DORSEY DO SOMETHING!!! He penetrated. Hehehehehe…

1:51

Fourth Most Accurate Kicker In NFL History Shane Graham hits a 30-yard field goal to give the Bengals a 13-0 lead.

RAMS UPDATE: Rams 7, Falcons 10 – Damnit.

1:41

Yards per Drive

Drive 1: 15 yards
Drive 2: 3 yards
Drive 3: 15 yards
Drive 4: 9 yards

1:29

Thigpen just threw a pass that was so bad, fans are booing because Intentional Grounding was not called. I mean the nearest receiver was literally 30 yards away. Not an kidding. 30 yards.

:44

The Chiefs are punting – again. I’m not going to miss this Chiefs team. Not one bit. It’s like watching the 2005 Royals.

:20

St. Louis scores on a touchdown pass to someone I’ve never heard of (Donnie Avery). 14-10 STL. SWEET

:00

The half ends on Fitzpatrick throwing a Hail Mary out of bounds. Ugly football game. 13-0 Bengals. One half left of wretched Chiefs football. I hope it’s a good one. I don’t want this to be the final taste in my mouth of the Chiefs.

LIVE BLOG: Chiefs v Bengals 1st Quarter

Pregame:

Chris Mortensen just tried to make me believe something crazy: Bill Parcells will leave Miami after the season via a clause in his contract.

But that wasn’t the crazy thing…

Bill Parcells possible replacement? Carl Peterson.

Chris Mortensen is officially the worse sports reporter ever. Or Miami is the stupidest organization ever.

First Quarter

15:00

I really wish Gus Johnson was doing this game…

14:53

Herb Taylor is officially a better kick returner than Eddie Drummund.

Which is worse: Going 0-16 or not winning at Cincinnati in 24 years?

13:41

I’m done with Larry Johnson. I don’t even think he is trying anymore. He purposely avoided hitting a hole so he could bounce it outside and get lose four yards.

12:36

If Thigpen is our quarterback next season (and God I hope he is not) he has GOT to get better at the deep ball. No accuracy whatsoever.

12:26

Jamal Charles can’t down a “gimme punt” inside the five. Up next: Glenn Dorsey gets pancaked by a wide receiver. Draft picks at work people!

12:09

I just learned that T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson are not playing today. If we give up more than 20 points today…

11:22

Anybody else hoping Ed Hochuli is umping tonight’s SD/Denver game?

10:08
Cincy is driving. Fantastic. God our defense sucks.

8:46

Patrick Surtain (it was really Jarrod Page) was credited with “really good coverage” on a dropped pass by a Cincy receiver I’ve never heard of. God, I hate these announcers. They could just put a couple of Cincy fans in there or maybe a couple of local college kids? It couldn’t have been any worse.

8: 41

Cincy goes for it on fourth down and fails. This is going to be a long and painful game to watch, isn’t it?

STL scoring update: Rams 0, Falcons 3. 10+ minutes left in the first quarter.

7:47

Three and out for the Chiefs after an incomplete pass to Tony Gonzalez.

Now would be a good time to mention a couple of records that could be set today. Four or fewer sacks makes the Chiefs the worst pass rushing team of all-time. Twelve or more catches by Tony Gonzalez breaks his own record for reception in a season by a tight end. Dwayne Bowe can get 1000 yards with an 81 yard (or more) receiving day.

6:44

Chris Henry should have beaten the Chiefs for a touchdown had he been able to find the pass intended for him. I don’t know whether to feel like the Chiefs dodged a bullet or if this is a sign of things to come.

4:38

I have a new, passionate hatred for DeAngelo Williams. Williams already has six carries for 80 yards halfway into the first quarter. I hate Jason, too.

1:45

Shane Graham hits a 39-yard field goal to give the Bengals the lead. Did you know Shane Graham is the fourth most accurate kicker in NFL history at 85%? I didn’t know that either.

RAMS UPDATE: Steven Jackson runs for a touchdown to put the Rams up 7-3 with 3 minutes left in the first quarter.

1:34

The Chiefs have been outgained 105 to 18 so far. Ugh. Cincy is ranked 21st in the league in defense, just incase you wanted to know.

0:00

The quarter ends with LJ losing six billion yards on a carry up the middle. We need a new offensive line and running back. Speaking of running backs, why isn’t Jamal Charles getting more carries in this game???

Saturday, December 27, 2008

Doubting Bradford

The longer I look at the quarterback situation in the 2009 NFL Draft, the more I think Sam Bradford is not the clear cut, no doubt about it number one quarterback in the draft. Now, I’m not saying that he is not, but I want to show you a few things that have made me think a little over the last couple of days.

What I did was basically break down what would be considered the six best NFL QB prospects in college right now. It is possible not all six will declare for the draft, but I think it is a safe consensus that these six guys are the guys to watch if not for this year, then for next.

The six are: Sam Bradford (OU), Matt Stafford (UGA), Colt McCoy (Texas), Tim Tebow (UF), Mark Sanchez (USC) and Nate Davis (Ball State).

The first two stats are mostly set ups for the last two stats I want to show you. The first one is career interceptions-per-attempts. This, to me, is the most controllable stat a quarterback. Like in almost all football stats, there are so many uncontrollable aspects that affect the eventual stat. For instance, a running back is nothing without a decent line, a receiver cannot catch passes if the ball is never thrown to him (or thrown in an uncatchable manner), a quarterback cannot control whether or not the receiver catches an accurate pass and so on. What a quarterback can control, however, is his decisions. He can choose when to throw, who to throw to and how to get it there (touch pass, line drive, etc.). Now, there are always interceptions, especially in college, where the receiver is at fault for either tipping the pass or running the wrong route, but I’m sure that there are an equal amount interceptions dropped that may not of been had it been a pro athlete and not a college athlete. Basically, I’m assuming these things balance themselves out over the course of one’s career. Anyway, I think this is one of the most important stats – moreso than yards, completion percentage or touchdowns – when statistically evaluating a quarterback. Here is how the six measure up.

INT-Per-Attempt

Tim Tebow – INT every 72 attempts
Thoughts: First, holy crap. That’s a massive number. Now, Tebow does hold the distinction of throwing the second fewest amount of passes (ahead of Mark Sanchez) and does throw many screens and passes to the flat to get his teammate's athleticism in space. But its not like the guy never threw it down the field, otherwise what is the point of have Percy Harvin play wide receiver and not running back? No matter the offense, that kind of ball protection is impressive.

Sam Bradford – INT every 56 attempts
Thoughts: For a guy who has thrown a half a million passes over the last two seasons, this is a staggeringly high number and in some ways more impressive than Tebow’s number. You can see why people would think high of him.

Nate Davis – INT every 52 attempts
Thoughts: I’d like this guy if he wasn’t Jason Whitlock’s sloppy seconds.

Colt McCoy – INT every 35 attempts (1 INT every 50 attempts if you exclude his sophomore season)
Thoughts: McCoy had that terrible 2007 season that hurt his career numbers. But he has shown he has the ability to protect the ball in two of the three seasons he’s played.

Matt Stafford – INT every 30 attempts (INT every 40 attempts this season)
Thoughts: Stafford’s INT:PA number has gotten better every season he’s played. People marvel at his arm and size, but look what that’s doing for JaMarcus Russell right now. Still, it is better to improve than to regress.

Mark Sanchez – INT every 28 attempts
Thoughts: This was Sanchez first full season as a starter so things were going to be a little rough. Additionally, USC – for some reason unknown to man – does not really have a top flight receiver for Sanchez to throw to. Plus, Sanchez was hurt coming into the season and did get better as the season progressed (4 INT in final 7 games with 2 INT coming in the Notre Dame – ?! – game).

Now that you have these numbers in mind, let’s look at how much pressure opposing defenses where getting on them. The obvious reason to look at this is to see what kind of atmosphere where these quarterbacks in when they had to make decisions in the pocket.

Times Sacked in 2008 (pass attempts)

Sam Bradford – 9 (442: once ever 50 passing plays)
Thoughts: Clearly, Bradford could do whatever he wanted in the pocket. Bradford was sacked in only four games this season, all of which involved a Texas school (Tex: 3 sacks; TCU: 3 sacks; TT: 2; TAM: 1). Bradford threw two of his six picks in 2008 in those four games (both against Texas).

Nate Davis – 12 (372: once every 32 passing plays)
Thoughts: While he does not have the same insane protection Bradford enjoyed, he still had some time to get comfortable. Davis is a millionaire to Bradford’s billionaire: Both are rich, but one is significantly richer than the other.

Tim Tebow – 15 (268: once every 19 passing plays)
Thoughts: Believe it or not, this is a number closer to what he can expect in the pros. In comparison, Philip Rivers, who is about in the middle of the road in the most/least sacked QB spectrum, is sacked once every 21 passing plays. (Gives you a different perspective on how crazy Bradford’s protection has been, doesn’t it?)

Matt Stafford – 15 (352: once every 24 passing plays)
Thoughts: This is more of a “true” number than Tebow’s because Stafford does not play a big part in the running game the way Tebow does – which can lead to inflated sack numbers. He is faceing something closer to NFL pressure – relatively at least.

Mark Sanchez – 16 (331: once every 22 passing plays)
Thoughts: Given that Sanchez has had a bum knee cap all season, I’m more impressed by his toughness after seeing this stat, which erases some (not all) doubts about how injury prone he may be.

Colt McCoy – 20 (375: once every 20 passing plays)
Thoughts: This is an encouraging state for McCoy given his production this season. It has changed the way I view his season compared to Bradford’s.

Finally, we look at the top rated defenses in the SEC and Big XII conferences since the top four of the six quarterbacks – in my opinion – are in those conferences.

Top 7 SEC Pass Defenses – as calculated by yards allowed per game (National Ranking)

South Carolina (3)
Tennessee (4)
Vanderbilt (18)
Florida (19)
Mississippi St (20)
Alabama (21)
Auburn (22)

Top 5 Big XII Pass Defenses – as calculated by yards allowed per game (National Ranking)

Colorado (74)
Nebraska (90)
Texas Tech (91)
Texas A&M (93)
Oklahoma (99)

There will be those who say that the Big XII offenses were so good that the defensive rankings are skewed. Here is one thought to counter that argument: Iowa State finished 29th in the nation in passing offense, 9th in the Big XII – ahead of Oklahoma State, Colorado and Baylor (Iowa State. 29th in the nation.). Eleven of the 12 Big XII teams finished 90th or worse in pass defense out of 119 schools. Seven schools finished 102nd or worse. I think it is fair to say that, at least, the Big XII is a below average pass defense conference. Seven Big XII schools finished 87th or worse in TOTAL defense this season. The highest rated Big XII team for total defense (yards allowed per game) was Texas and they were ranked 50th. In comparison, 9 (of 12) SEC teams were ranked 36th or higher in total defense.

It is true that the SEC had some bad offenses (Auburn, Kentucky, Miss. State, Tennessee and Vanderbilt all finished 103rd or worse in total offense – South Carolina was 97th), but at least six SEC schools cracked the top 55 in total offense (Georgia and Florida were top 25) this season, which is more than can be said about the number of Big XII defenses that cracked the top 55 in total defense (one – Texas, and they were 50th).I think it would be fair to say that the SEC was an average (barely) offensive conference this season, especially with how dominate the SEC’s defenses were.

The point in all of this is that Bradford and McCoy did not see the kind of talent on defense Tebow and Stafford did.

Eight of Stafford’s nine picks this season (and seven just 7 of his TDs) came against six of the top 7 SEC pass defenses; Miss. State was the only team Stafford did not play in the top seven. That’s not an easy haul for any college quarterback. In comparison, Tebow threw 10 touchdowns and ZERO interceptions (ZERO!) against four of the six defenses he could have faced (he did not play Miss. State or Auburn). Granted, he did not throw for many yards against those teams, averaging less than 200 yards a game, but he still handled them with more efficiency that Stafford.

ANYWAY, this whole thing began with me making a statement about not being sure of Bradford’s draft status as the number one quarterback in the class. Looking at these numbers, it seems to me that Bradford may have hit a bit of a perfect storm. He played terrible pass defenses, had an insane offensive line and had a plethora of weapons. He never really had to deal with pressure. The one game he did have pressure in, the Texas game, he threw one-third of his season total picks and lost the game (though he did throw five touchdowns…). When I watch OU on offense, I don’t look at them and go, “Wow, Sam Bradford is INSANELY good,” as much as I go, “That offense is an unstoppable machine.” Whereas, when I watch Florida, I'm more likely to watch and say, “Geez, Tebow is unstoppable.”

I think you could take Tebow, Stafford, McCoy, Todd Reesing, Chase Daniel, Brodie Croyle or Marques Hagans and still have relatively the same kind of success – maybe not 60 points a game success, but success none the less. I mean, who wouldn’t have successes at quarterback there if you’re only going to get sacked in four of the 13 games you play and your conference has 11 teams ranked 90th or worse in pass defense.

However, if you take Tebow from this Florida team, I don’t know if they would be as good of an offense. Much is predicated on Tebow’s ability to run – something Bradford doesn’t do nearly as well as Tebow does. I don’t think Sam Bradford goes to Florida and has a 48-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Some may say, “Well, Bradford is going to get his chance in the BCS title game when he plays Florida,” but it is not the same thing. Neither team will have played in over a month. This is no way to judge a players ability against a good team let alone a Championship. Not to say there is nothing to be gained from the game, but this would be a much more meaningful matchup if either team had played in the past five weeks. Stupid BCS.

Anyway, that’s just something I’ve been thinking about. Feel free to make fun of me for it. But please note, the does not mean I don’ think Bradford would not be an excellent quarterback at the next level or that Tim Tebow is the best quarterback in the draft (though I did make it seem that way). Tebow does have an awkward throwing motion, a slow release, concerns about what all the hits he took in college will do to his long term health, concerns about restructing a team's offensive line to account for his blind side being on the right and not the left, his overall ceiling and whether or not he can be a true pocket passer.

But ultimately this is a piece of what is going to be a much larger puzzle of finding the best quarterback in the draft. But I do think the gap between Bradford and the rest of this year’s quarterback class is closer than what ESPN and the rest of the draft guru’s are saying. I guess, that's really the whole point.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Final Playoff Scenario Update

Championship Picture

#1 Seed: Zou 11-4-1

#2 Seed: Smurfs 10-6

#3 Seed: Inoculators 8-7-1

#4 Seed: Wannabees 7-7-2

------------------------------------

PBC 7-8-1

Saints 7-8-1


Consolation Picture

#1 Seed: PBC 7-8-1

#2 Seed: Saints 7-8-1

#3 Seed: JLT 7-9

#4 Seed: NG 3-11-2


Points Standings (Key for tie-breakers)

PBC: 1547

Inoculators: 1540

Saints: 1539

Wannabees: 1536

JLT: 1505


NFL Teams Who Have Clinched Playoff Spots

New York Giants

Arizona Cardinals

Carolina Panthers

Atlanta Falcons

Tennessee Titans

Pittsburgh Steelers

Indianapolis Colts


NFL Teams Who Are Still Alive


Win and In

Denver Broncos/San Diego Chargers

Baltimore Ravens

Minnesota Vikings

Miami Dolphins


Need Some Help

New England Patriots

New York Jets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Dallas Cowboys

Chicago Bears


Long Shot

Philadelphia Eagles


Individual Team Situation


The Zou (Clinched Playoff Spot)

The Zou have won their division and will be the number one seed in the Championship playoff.


Krunk Smurfs (Clinched Playoff Spot)

The Krunk Smurfs have won their division and will be the number two seed in the Championship playoff.


Inoculators

The Inoculators can clinch the number three seed with a win OR a Wannabees loss. The Inoculators can clinch a playoff spot with a win OR Wannabee loss or have more total points than the winner of the PBC/Saints matchup.


Wannabees

The Wannabees can clinch the three seed with a win and an Inoculators loss. The Wannabees can clinch a playoff spot with a win. The Wannabees cannot make the playoffs with a loss next weekend.


PBC

Pollard’s Bonecrushers can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a Wannabee loss OR a win and an Inoculators loss plus point help.


Saints

The Saints can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a Wannabee loss OR a win and an Inoculators loss plus points help.


JLT

JLT can clinch the second seed in the consolation playoff with a win and an Inoculators playoff berth.

Sunday, December 14, 2008

Playoff Race Update

Overall Standings

^Zou (10-4-1) GB:-
Smurfs (9-6) GB: 1.5
#Wannabees (7-6-2) GB: 2.5
#Inoculators (8-7) GB: 2.5
------------------------------------
PBC (7-7-1) GB: 3
Saints (7-8) GB: 3.5
JLT (6-9) GB: 4.5
Not Good (3-10-2) GB: 6.5

^ Zou has clinched playoff berth
# Wannabees own tie-breaker over Inoculators

Old Kids

Smurfs (9-6) GB: -
Inoculators (8-7) GB: 1
PBC (7-7-1) GB: 1.5
Saints (7-8) GB: 2

Young Kids

^Zou (10-4-1) GB: -
Wannabees (7-6-2) GB: 2.5
JLT (6-9) GB: 4.5
Not Good (3-10-2) GB: 6.5

^ Won division

Baring some unexpected results from tonight’s game (including Akers and Westbrook combining for 55 points, Philadelphia’s defense losing points, McNabb scoring 67 points) this week’s results seem set. The updated standings are above. Here are some quick thoughts and what each team needs next week.

First, it may be better to finish fifth and miss the playoffs than to be the fourth seed in the playoffs if you are the Inoculators or PBC. Neither team has great playoff keepers, but does have some very good options for 2009 keepers. Add those keepers and a possible number one overall pick and things look pretty good for either of those teams. Finishing fourth and not having a pick higher than fifth overall in next year’s draft does not seem as enticing. Then again, if you can somehow manage to pull out a championship…

Second, the Chiefs suck.

Third – Greatest. Column. Ever. (slightly overstated) Excerpt from Joe Posnanski’s column:

“OK, I’m convinced now. Fire everybody. Fire Carl. Fire Herm. Fire Gunther. Fire the players. After that game, there’s really nothing to say but: Fire them all. And they should not stop there. The Chiefs should hire Greg Robinson back just so they can fire him again. They should call John Mackovic just to remind him that he got fired. They should bring in Donald Trump to walk through Arrowhead’s coaches offices and the locker room, just so everyone will fully understand what’s going on.”

Finally, line of the night from Keith Olbermann: "At Kansas City, they had to play, they sold tickets."

Zou (Clinched playoff berth and Young Kids division)

A win next week locks up the number one seed and the first pick in the Championship draft. The Zou has the Wannabees and Not Good left on his schedule.

Smurfs

A win and an Inoculators loss clinches the Old Kids division and a subsequent playoff spot next week. A win this week or next gains the Smurfs a playoff spot. The Smurfs need to win out and the Zou to lose out in order to earn the number one seed. Remaining schedule: vs. PBC, vs. Inoculators

Wannabees

A win and a PBC loss next week clinches a wildcard spot. The Wannabees cannot win their division. The Wannabees remaining schedule includes The Zou next week and Not Good in Week 17.

Inoculators

A win and a PBC loss next week clinches a wildcard spot. The Inoculators can win the division and the number two seed by winning out. Inoculators remaining schedule: vs. Saints, vs. Smurfs

PBC

Needs two wins and at least one loss from either the Wannabees or Inoculators OR one win and two losses from either the Wannabees or Inoculators. PBC can win the division by winning out, the Smurfs losing out and the Inoculators losing to the Saints. Remaining schedule: vs. Smurfs, vs. Saints


JLT (Eliminated from playoff contention)

JLT is eliminated because there is no scenario where the Inoculators and PBC lose out and the Saints lose a game (the Saints play the Inoculators and PBC to end the season). JLT can earn the first pick in the Consolation in a myriad of scenarios.

Not Good (Eliminated from playoff contention)

Joel is eliminated from the playoffs and cannot gain the top pick in the Consolation draft.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

5 Observations: Kansas Football

Observation #1: Kansas is slow, small and lacks depth.

Other than that, we’re just fine. From watching Kansas games this season, I’d say our biggest weakness is speed. Lack of speed killed us (besides all the injuries) against the Big XII South. Size and lack of depth hurt us in our loss to Nebraska. KU does have some decent speed coming up, though.

2009 Recruiting Class (as of 12/10/08)

Prinz Kande (HS) – Safety – 4.5
Darian Kelly (HS) – Safety – 4.5
Dexter Linton (HS) – Safety – 4.42
Calvin Rubles (JC) – Cornerback – 4.4
Deshaun Sands (HS) – Running back – 4.5
Tyrone Sellers (HS) – Defensive End – 4.57
Jacoby Thomas (HS) – Defensive End – 4.71

2008 Recruiting Class

Lubbock Smith – Cornerback – 4.4
Daymond Patterson – WR/DB – 4.43
Josh Richardson – Linebacker – 4.45
Rod Harris – Wide Reciever – 4.5
Corrigan Powell – Cornerback – 4.5
Sean Ransburg – Athlete – 4.5
Jocques Crawford – Running Back – 4.5
D.J. Marshall – Defensive End – 4.75

Angus Quigley (4.5-40) has been practicing at linebacker the last few days so that could be something we see next season.

Of course, none of these 40 times mean anything if they can’t play football (see: Jocques Crawford). But Kansas really needs to take these last few weeks of recruiting and land some guys with some speed. They do have some guys who are interested in Kansas who would be interesting. Ronnie Wingo, the second rated athlete in the class, is visiting Kansas next week (he’ also visiting MU and Illinois). I doubt he chooses KU, but you never know.

Another issue is Kansas doesn’t have anyone with “elite” speed. They do not have that Talib/Maclin-type (And Erik, I know Maclin is faster than Talib and should never be put in the same sentence – I’ll admit that if you will admit that Talib has an excellent shot at winning the NFC Defensive Rookie of the Year). Speaking of Talib…

Observation #2: Kansas must have an elite athlete in order to compete for a Big XII title.

Kansas lacks top level talent. We are loaded with guys who could be drafted in round four through seven of the NFL draft, but we don’t have a single guy on this roster (as of now) who would be selected on day one of the draft. There is no way Kansas, or any Big XII team for that matter, can compete without at least one elite talent on their roster. We saw the difference this season what not having Talib and Collins had.

I appreciate Mark Mangino’s recruiting style giving that his program is in the middle of nowhere Kansas. But he has got to find a way to lure some top level talent to Kansas. The basketball team has done it – granted they have a bit of a tradition to recruit on – so it is possible. Either way, we need some more 4 and 5 start level talent on this team. Not a ton, but more than we have now.

Observation #3: The South Florida and Nebraska losses killed us.

Consider this on its own: A victory over Nebraska would have meant we would have had the right to get slaughtered by OU, not Missouri. Do with that what you want, but we are not far out from being in the BCS again.

The South Florida loss probably cost us New Years Day bowl. Flip those two games and Kansas is 9-3 (9-4 if you want to include a loss to OU in the Championship game). Erik will probably say that MU is 9-4 and is playing on Dec. 29 so KU would not have had a New Years Day bowl. What Erik does not know is that Kansas’ AD is the craziest man alive and would have pulled it out somehow. Heck, that’s how we got to the Orange Bowl last year.

Observation #4: Kansas has an excellent shot at winning the Big XII North in 2009.

It isn’t so much about who returns as much as it is what everyone else loses. We discussed Missouri’s losses earlier and I fully expect them to go 7-5 next year. Texas Tech will lose Harrell and Crabtree, OU will lose Bradford, four-fifths of their offensive line, Iglesias and two other starting wide outs, and both safeties next season. Texas loses both wide receivers, four-fifths of their offensive line, six defensive starters and, maybe, Colt McCoy (though he says he’s coming back, I don’t believe him – at least not yet). Nebraska loses seven starters on offense (including Ganz, Lucky and Swift) and five starters on defense.

You can look at Kansas and say they lose a lot too, which they do. All three linebackers, both ends, Dexton Fields, both guards and the center are all gone after this season. The difference is none of those guys played this season almost at all due to injury.

Ressing, Sharp, Briscoe, and Meier all return next season. Darrell Stuckey comes back next season along with the entire secondary (all of whom were freshmen or sophomores this season, minus Thornton who missed several games with an injury) Maxwell Onyegbule and Jake Laptad saw most of the action at defensive end in the second half of the season and will be back.

Really, the core of this team is very young and they went 7-5 while being riddled with injuries and playing three teams with at least 11 wins and every ranked team in the conference minus Oklahoma State.

The key for next season is to see how much Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas and Nebraska fall off. If Kansas can get two of those games back (likely the Texas Tech and Nebraska games), then Kansas is in the Big XII title game next year.

Observation #5: What the hell is going to happen in 2010?

The entire core of Kansas football leaves after next season. Reesing, Briscoe, Meier and Stuckey are all gone. When they leave, we are going to see the true test of Mark Mangino and if Kansas is really a program that’s going to compete in the Big XII for a while or if the last few seasons have been something of a “We had a tiny quarterback that always found ways to win” period in KU history.

To be honest, MU is going to face that question this season. Was their success the product of being lucky and hitting on a quarterback that knew how to win or was it the beginning of a pattern of success for Pinkel and Mizzou.

I hope both Kansas and Mizzou are entering a period where they will be competitive every season. Take it from a guy who has been bored beating the crap out of MU in basketball year after year. Trust me, it is much more fun when the other team is good to.

Playoff Race Scenarios

Playoff Standings

Zou: 9-4-1; 1413 pts
Smurfs: 9-5; 1376 pts
PBC: 7-6-1; 1384 pts
Wannabees: 6-6-2; 1320 pts
--------------------------------------
Inoc: 7-7; 1306 pts
JLT: 6-8; 1334 pts
Saints: 6-8; 1312 pts
NG: 3-9-2; 1148

Wildcard Standings

PBC 7-6-1 GB: -
^Wannabees 6-6-2 GB: -
^Inoculators 7-7 GB: -
JLT 6-8 GB: 1
Saints 6-8 GB: 1

^ The Wannabees hold the tie-breaker over the Inoculators by having scored 14 more fantasy points this season.

Old Kids Division Race

Smurfs: 9-5 GB: -
PBC: 7-6-1 GB: 1.5
Inoc.: 7-7 GB: 2
Saints: 6-8 GB: 3

Young Kids Division Race

Zou: 9-4-1 GB: -
Wannabees: 6-6-2 GB: 2.5
JLT: eliminated
NG: eliminated

The Eliminated: Not Good

Joel is done. While technically “Not Good” still has a shot at the playoffs, the only scenario that sees Joel making the playoffs is he won out, managed a tie for forth place due to epic collapses from everyone above him, and scored enough points to win the tie-breaker. This isn’t happening.

On The Fence of Contention: JLT and Saints

Both JLT (vs Zou) and Saints (vs Smurfs) have what would appear to be certain losses this week. A loss for either team would almost certainly eliminate them from contention, but there are still reasonable scenarios they either of them makes the playoffs. We’ll take a stronger look at each team if either wins their matchup.

The Locks: Krunk Smurfs and The Zou

At this point, there are two virtual locks (though they are not officially in the playoffs – yet): The Zou and Krunk Smurfs.

At least one win between now and the end of the season for Erik and he is in the playoffs. The win would clinch a playoff spot and his division.

The Smurfs’ situation is a little less decided compared to the Zou when it comes to winning his division, but Jason is still in very good shape. The Smurfs can also clinch a playoff spot with a win and an Inoculators loss.

Erik’s playoff clinching scenario for Week 15: A win OR an Inoculators/Wannabees loss
Erik’s division clinching scenario for Week 15: A win OR a Wannabees loss

Jason’s playoff clinching scenario for Week 15: A win AND an Inoculators/Wannabees loss

Wildcards: PBC, Wannabees, Inoculators

Only half-a-game separates the third seed Crushers from both the Wannabees and Inoculators, so things are tight to say the least. Of course, what everybody needs is for them to win and everyone else to lose, but here are some specific things each team should look for next week.

PBC

Andrew needs to view this week as a “win and in” situation. First, Andrew shouldn’t worry about JLT and the Saints, because any scenario where Andrew is tied or is just a half a game up on him would mean he would be out either of wildcard spots. With this understood, should Andrew beat the Inoculators this week, he would have all but locked down a playoff spot. A win and things elsewhere going down as projected, the standings would look like this (this assumes WW beats Joel):

PBC (8-6-1) GB: -
WW (7-6-2) GB: .5
KCI (7-8) GB: 1.5

Granted, Andrew would have a matchup against the Smurfs in Week 16, but he would finish the season against the Saints while the Inoculators face the Smurfs that week.

A loss would make things more complicated. Here’s what the standings would look in that case:

WW (7-6-2) GB: -
KCI (8-7) GB: -
PBC (7-7-1) GB: .5

This would put a tremendous amount of pressure on Andrew to beat the Smurfs in Week 16. In fact, a loss to Jason and KCI (vs Saints) and Wannabees (vs Zou) wins would eliminate Andrew from the playoffs.

There is, of course, a scenario where Andrew wins the division, but that is looking unlikely on the moment. Andrew’s focus should be on beating the Inoculators this weekend.

Wannabees

Two things are on the Wannabees agenda: Don’t get upset and keep his points lead.

An upset loss to Joel would be terrible for Jeff. While it would still be possible for him to make the playoffs, it would be a huge hit to his chances.

The biggest thing that he needs to keep on his mind is his points lead on the Inoculators. It is that number that has him in the position he is in now. He needs to makes sure he maintains that number.

Inoculators

As close as the Inoculators are to the playoffs, Ben is still very, very far away. A win this week guarantees the Inoculators little and Ben also has the toughest of the Week 17 matchups. I think the Inoculators are more likely to be out of the playoffs than in.

Sunday, December 7, 2008

5 Observations: Missouri football

Note: I will be writing something similar about KU – and it won’t be happy either – so stay calm, Erik. But feel free to write something if you want.

Observation #1 – Missouri’s season seemed to end after the win over Nebraska.

Missouri beat Nebraska on the road for the first time since Jesus walked the earth to propel MU to a 5-0 start. From that point on, MU was 4-4 and seemed to get worse as the season progressed.

4 Wins
Colorado (5-7): 58-0
Baylor (4-8): 31-28
Kansas St. (5-7): 41-24
Iowa St. (2-10): 52-20

4 Losses
Oklahoma St. (9-3): 28-23
Texas (11-1): 56-31
Kansas (7-5): 40-37
Oklahoma (12-1): 62-21

This isn’t a good sign for Missouri. At least not for a team that was suppose to compete for a National Title. For a team that was suppose get over the big game hurdle and win the Big XII. For a team that was on the fast track to national prominence. What they looked like was a team stuck somewhere between being wildly over-hyped and dreadfully underachieving. Or maybe they were both, I honestly don’t know.

Missouri had no business losing to OKST at home or to a depleted Kansas team on a neutral field. And a team ranked as high as third in the nation should pose a better fight in a conference championship game than their deplorable 62-21 loss to Oklahoma.

Observation #2 – Thinks are not looking good for the 2009 season.

Gary Pinkel’s offensive philosophy almost got him fired a few years ago. My understanding of the story is that Pinkel made the decision to hand over the offense to Christiansen and let him run the spread the season everyone felt was Pinkel was at the end of his rope at MU. Chrisiansen built an offense that, at the very least, made Mizzou a respectable program and gave them some light in the national scene. But Christiansen isn’t the only guy leaving this season, so is half of the offense.

Chase Daniel = Graduated
Chase Coffman = Graduated
Jeremy Maclin = Likely going to the NFL
Tommy Saunders = Graduated
Colin Brown = Graduated
Ryan Madison = Graduated

That’s six offensive starters, three of whom are the core of the offensive boom they’ve experienced the last two seasons, who will be gone in 2009. Who is the playmaker on this team next season?

Derrick Washington was terrible in big games. In the three key games MU played – Oklahoma St., Texas and Oklahoma (I do not count the KU game because nothing could be gained or lost from winning or losing at the time it was played) – Washington rushed for a combined 57 yards on 25 carries (2.28 ypc). If you throw in the Kansas game, he rushed for 111 yards on 36 carries (3.08 ypc). You can interpret this in many ways, but it is clear that MU’s rushing game was non-existent in big games this season.

Blaine Gabbert threw 13 passes this season. As with all young quarterbacks, there will be a learning curve there, but that learning curve is going to happen with Jared Perry and Danario Alexander – who combined this season for fewer catches than Tommy Saunders – as his primary targets and not Jeremy Maclin (presumably) and Chase Coffman.

Andrew Jones is a highly touted tight end recruit who caught 18 passes this season, but are you going to center your entire passing game on a somewhat raw sophomore tight end?

So with no weapons and a head coach whose initial offensive inclination is to pound it out and hope for the best, I don’t see things going well next season.

The Tigers do not have the kind of talent that is ready to replace Daniel, Maclin, Coffman and company anyway. MU will lose 12 of 22 starters to graduation at the end of the season with the prospects of Jeremy Maclin (#2 WR according to ESPN), Sean Weatherspoon (#3 OLB according to ESPN) and Jaron Baston (likely to stay, but is rising draft boards quickly) going pro. This leaves MU replacing 14 starters at least. MU, like most universities not named USC, cannot replace 14 starters, and the core of its most successful teams in recent history, and expect to win 9-plus games next season.

Observation #3 – Mizzou’s success during the Chase Daniel Era (2006-2008).

“Big XII Football since 2006.”

Overall Record (Includes Big XII Championship and Bowl games)
1. OU: 34-7
2. UT: 31-7
3. TT: 28-10
4. MU: 29-11
5. KU: 25-12

Overall Regular Season Conference Record
1. OU: 20-4
2. UT: 18-6
3. MU: 16-8
4. TT: 15-9
5. KU: 14-10

BCS Bowls
OU: 3 bids (2006-2008)
KU: 1 bid (2007)
UT: 1 bid (2008)

Bowls (2008 bids included)
1. UT: 3 bids (Won Alamo Bowl, Won Holiday Bowl)
2. TT: 3 bids (Won Insight Bowl, Won Gator Bowl)
3. OSU: 3 bids (Won Independence Bowl, Won Insight Bowl)
4. MU: 3 bids (Lost Sun Bowl, Won Cotton Bowl)
5. OU: 3 bids (Lost Fiesta Bowl twice)

Note: The five listed schools and Kansas were the only schools who were bowl eligible all three seasons.

Record Against Ranked Teams (Includes Big XII Championship game and Bowls)
1. OU: 11-5 (8-5 vs Top 20; 2-4 vs Top 10)
2. UT: 7-3 (7-3 vs Top 20; 2-3 vs Top 10)
3. MU: 5-6 (2-6 vs Top 20; 1-4 vs Top 10)
4. TT: 5-7 (4-5 vs Top 20; 3-2 vs Top 10)
5. KU: 3-6 (2-5 vs Top 20; 1-4 vs Top 10)

Conference Titles
OU: 3 (2006 - 2008)

Division Titles
OU: 3 (Outright title in 2006 and 2007, shared title with TEX and TT in 2008)
NEB: 2 (Outright title in 2006, shared title with MU in 2008)
MU: 2 (Shared title with KU in 2007, shared title with Nebraska in 2008)
KU: 1 (Shared title with MU in 2007)
TEX: 1 (Shared title with OU and TT in 2008)
TT: 1 (Shared title with OU and TEX in 2008)

Basically what MU has is an 8, 12 and 9 win seasons (one game left of 2008), three bowl bids (one win and another game upcoming) and two Big XII Championship game appearances (and two bad losses to OU). MU was also tied for the third most wins against ranked opponents. Clearly it has been a good time to be an MU fan.

Observation #4: Missouri (and its fans) have misinterpreted their success.

“We have not arrived. I’ve said that … often.” – Gary Pinkel, Head Coach

“Oklahoma is Big 12 champ again, and Missouri again gets to claim runner-up status, even though we realize the distance between No. 1 and No. 2 is more like No. 1 and No. 5.” – Jason Whitlock, KC Star

“You have to figure that Missouri, when it came down to it, just wasn’t that good a football team.” – Joe Posnanski, KC Star

“Mizzou has been punted back into its inglorious past, when its teams had no chance of consistently competing against the sport's elite.” – Bernie Miklasz, St. Louis Post-Dispatch

Now, the situation isn’t as bad as Mr. Miklasz explains it, but part of the reason Miklasz writes these things is because everyone falsely believed Missouri was a championship contender. They’re not; not even close. It seems that Missouri fans were deceived by the point spreads MU put over weak opponents, the athleticism of Jeremy Maclin and their victories over rebuilding/underachieving Nebraska teams. But Texas and Oklahoma showed Missouri fans what Championship teams look like and Missouri is nowhere near that – and if they were, that window is closed now.
Chase Daniel is a good example of Missouri’s season. Daniel had a 15-to-1 TD/INT ratio after the Nebraska game (this means games against such powerhouses as Buffalo, SE Missouri State, Nevada and a “5-7 in the Big 10” Illinois team) and was the Heisman frontrunner. From that point on, Daniel threw at least one interception in each game, finishing with 22 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and a few key fumbles. The kid turned into a turnover machine. There are only 7 quarterbacks in the FBS with more interceptions than Daniel. I’m not saying Daniel sucks, he’s been an excellent college quarterback and will likely end his career with more than 100 career touchdowns, but he’s been very average these last eight weeks and his teams has suffered tremendously for it.

Observation #5: Missouri and Kansas are the same programs.

Yell and scream about that all you want Tigers fans, but it’s true.

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Postseason Draft and Keeper Thoughts

Some thoughts on the postseason drafts and keepers.

Draft

For those of you who were not in the postseason draft last year, here is a quick overview of what that looks like and some of the rules.

- The draft is sixteen rounds long, just like the regular season, and will consist of all players who are in the NFL playoffs.
- Draft order is determined by seed. Also, the first round is fixed, so the snake draft does not begin until the second round. So it will go as such:

Round One
First pick: Seed 1
Second pick: Seed 2
Third pick: Seed 3
Fourth pick: Seed 4

Round Two
Fifth pick: Seed 1
Sixth pick: Seed 2
Seventh pick: Seed 3
Eighth pick: Seed 4

Round Three
Ninth pick: Seed 4
Tenth pick: Seed 3
Eleventh pick: Seed 2
Twelfth pick: Seed 1

Round Four
Thirteenth pick: Seed 1
….

The point of this is to give the higher seeds an advantage for finishing with a better record. A pure snake draft would not value a top seed as much as it should.

- Each team may keep up to six (6) players from their regular season roster for the playoffs. The players will count as your 16th round pick and move up a round per player kept. So if you keep four players, you will lose your 13th through 16th round draft picks. Note: I suggest you keep a player who is actually IN THE PLAYOFFS.
- Because of the amount of keepers and there only being four teams, the draft moves really fast so time shouldn’t be too big of a deal.
- There is no free agency in the playoffs. The sixteen players you draft are the sixteen players you get for the whole playoffs, so you may want to consider the quality of team the player is on when you draft them.
- The roster size and the amount of starters is exactly the same as it is in the regular season. QB, RB, RB, RB/WR, WR, WR, TE, DEF, K and seen bench spots.
- The playoffs are a total points contest, not a weekly head-to-head matchup. All of the playoff weeks are added you to give you one big score. Most points wins. Basically, you want as many points as you can get. In the case of the consolation bracket, first place get the number one pick in next year’s draft, second place gets the second pick, third gets the third pick and fourth place gets the fourth pick. Here was last year’s results for the Championship:
- During the playoffs, everyone must post their starting lineups on the appropriate thread that will be provided on the league page. I will keep all of the scores, but I suggest you keep them too just in case I make a mistake.

Here are a few other things to keep in mind. The Championship Playoff and the Consolation Playoff (I’m working on an alternative name for that) are TWO COMPLETELY DIFFERENT DRAFTS!!! This is not one big draft, so all of the same players will available in the Consolation draft as they will be in the Championship draft. Also, the playoff drafts do absolutely nothing to your regular season rosters that you will be selecting keepers for the 2009 season from. You cannot keep someone from your playoff roster for the 2009 season, so don’t do something stupid with your regular season roster.


Keeper Thoughts

After some more thought, I’ve come up with three possible solutions for keepers. Give me your feedback and we’ll vote on it at the end of the season.

Prop. #1 – Two keepers for each team. Players drafted in the first and second round cannot be kept. Undrafted players count as a 12th round pick (if you keep two undrafted players, than it is your 11th and 12th round pick).

Prop. 2 – Same as proposition one only with three keepers.

Prop. 3 – Three keepers and a developmental keeper (a possible four total keepers). Players drafted in rounds one and two cannot be kept. Undrafted players count as a 12th round pick and move up (rounds 11 and 10) for each additional kept undrafted player. A developmental keeper must be a rookie or second year player (in this case, they would have had to be a rookie for the 2007 or 2008 NFL season) and will count as an 8th round draft pick. If you do not have an 8th round pick, it will move up to your next available round (7th round, 6th round, etc.).

Give me your thoughts. The only non-negotiable thing is the first and second round deal. The purpose is to maintain the value of the first and second rounds. I think we noticed this in last season’s fantasy baseball draft. The point is that Brandon Phillips should be drafted fifth overall in any fantasy draft as is what happened in last year’s FBB draft. My shot at a fantasy football equivalent would be taking Antonio Gates with the fifth overall pick in the draft. Agreed? (No, really, I don’t know what the football equivalent of Brandon Phillips is.)

Thursday, December 4, 2008

A Four Week Mad Dash or A Catchy Headline I Couldn't Come Up With About the Last Four Weeks of the Season or Longest. Headline. Ever.

With four weeks left in the season, lets breakdown the chances of each team making the playoffs and where they may end up.

The Zou (8-4-1) 1313 points
Four Week Schedule: NG, JLT, WW, NG (Combine Record: 17-29-6)
Current Play:off Seed 1st in Championship Playoff

Upside: By record, he has the easiest schedule of all teams and has the highest scoring team. In addition, he has two matchups against the three win “Not Good” – terrible name – and does not play a team with a winning record.

Downside: At this point, only an injury to Adrian Peterson or a bad case of luck – or the “Steve Slaton Effect” as I like to call it – can hold down Erik at this point.

Best Case Scenario: Top seed in Championship Playoff

Worst Case Scenario: Erik drops a matchup and the Smurfs win out to steal the top seed.

Projection: Top seed in Championship Playoff and Young Kids division winner.

Krunk Smurfs (8-5) 1248 points
Four Week Schedule: KCI, SAS, PBC, KCI (Combine Record: 26-25-1)
Current Playoff Seed: 2nd in Championship Playoff

Upside: Jason controls his own fate. He has the advantage of not having to chase anyone in his division and is only an upset away from the best record in the league. One break and he might be the front runner for the league championship.

Downside: All four of his matchups are within the division, which has handed him three of his five losses. Jason is also dealing with many injury issues, including Clinton Portis and Brian Westbrook. Also, the best quarterback on his roster is Jason Campbell.

Best Case Scenario: Top seed in Championship Playoff

Worst Case Scenario: Injuries mount and the Smurfs miss out on the playoffs entirely.

Projection: 2nd Seed in Championship Playoff as Old Kids division winner.

Inoculators (7-6) 1195 points
Four Week Schedule: KS, PBC, SAS, KS (Combine Record: 28-23-1)
Current Playoff Seed: 3rd in Championship Playoff

Upside: The Inoculators control their own destiny with two matchups with the division leader Smurfs and a matchup apiece with PBC and the Saints. Matchups favor the Inoculators fantasy players for the remainder of the season.

Downside: The Inoculators are the second lowest scoring team in the league. Enough said.

Best Case Scenario: Top seed in Championship Playoff – it’s possible but unlikely. A more likely top end result is a division championship.

Worst Case Scenario: The Inoculators could easily lose out.

Projection: Top seed in consolation playoff.

Pollard’s Brady Crushers (6-6-1) 1283 points
Four Week Schedule: SAS, KCI, KS, SAS (Combine Record: 27-25)
Current Playoff Seed: 4th in Championship Playoff

Upside: PBC has the best draw of the final four matchups in comparison of the rest of the division. Andrew has scored the second most points in the league and currently holds any tie-breaker within the division.

Downside: Luck has not been with PBC for most of the season, but he has been on a bit of an upswing the last few weeks. It is feasible that PBC does not make the playoffs even if he goes 3-1 in the final four weeks – but a 3-1 finish could also win him the division. It’s a very shaky situation for PBC, who has little room for error.

Best Case Scenario: A division title and the second seed in the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: The third seed in the consolation playoff.

Projection: 3rd seed in the Championship playoff

I Still Have Just LT (6-7) 1279 points
Four Week Schedule: WW, ZOU, NG, WW (Combine Record: 21-24-7)
Current Playoff Seed: 1st in Consolation Playoff

Upside: First, JLT doesn’t have to play The Zou twice. Second, JLT had a streak of three straight 100-point weeks snapped (he scored 94 points against the Smurfs… and lost). Finally, he is only four points behind Andrew for the second highest point total in the league, which could help him in potential tie-breaking situation for a playoff spot.

Downside: If the season ended today, Chris would be out of the championship playoff, meaning he needs some help from the teams above him in addition to taking care of business on his end. However, being a half-game out of the playoffs is not a tough mountain to climb.

Best Case Scenario: A division championship is still within reach, but is unlikely. The third seed in the playoffs is a more likely high-end.

Worst Case Scenario: Miss the playoffs and gets 3rd seed in the consolation bracket.

Projection: Fourth seed in Championship playoff.

Saints (6-7) 1238 points
Four Week Schedule: PBC, KS, KCI, PBC (Combine Record: 27-23-2)
Current Playoff Seed: 2nd in Consolation Playoff

Upside: A few weeks ago, I said he was as good as dead. At 6-7, he’s only a half-a-game out of the playoffs. He has nothing to lose at this point after the way his season started.

Downside: Three losses over the last three weeks may be a sign of a return to his early season form… which was not a good thing.

Best Case Scenario: Tony takes advantage of not having to play the Smurfs twice and steals a wildcard spot away from the Inoculators – the more likely team to not make the playoffs of the current playoff teams.

Worst Case Scenario: Tony maintains his trend and misses the playoffs.

Projection: 3rd seed in consolation bracket.

Weseloh Wannabees (5-6-2) 1213 points
Four Week Schedule: JLT, NG, ZOU, JLT (Combine Record: 23-26-3)
Current Playoff Seed: 3rd in Consolation Playoff

Upside: His two ties are not losses and he put up 138 points last week.

Downside: The Wannabees are 1-3-1 in the last five weeks, though his win was last week. Also, there are a lot of teams ahead of him that he needs to jump over in order to get to the playoffs.

Best Case Scenario: Going 3-1 in the final four weeks is not out of the question. This may be enough for him to steal a fourth seed in the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: As likely as 3-1 is, so is 1-3. This wouldn’t be good for Weseloh.

Projection: 2rd seed in consolation bracket.

Not Good (3-8-2) 1068 points
Four Week Schedule: ZOU, WW, JLT, ZOU (Combine Record: 27-21-4)
Current Playoff Seed: 4th in Consolation Playoff

Upside: Destroying WW and JLT’s playoff hopes.

Downside: At this point, there is no downside.

Best Case Scenario: There really isn’t a best case scenario at this point aside from not having the four seed in the consolation bracket.

Worst Case Scenario: None.

Projection: 4th seed in consolation bracket.

Overall Standings for Playoff Spot

#Zou (8-4-1; 1313 pts) GB: -
#Smurfs (8-5; 1248 pts) GB: -
%Inoculators (7-6; 1195 pts) GB: -
%PBC (6-6-1; 1283 pts) GB: -
Just LT (6-7; 1279 pts) GB: .5
Saints (6-7; 1238 pts) GB: .5
Wannabees (5-6-2; 1213 pts) GB: 1
Not Good (3-8-2; 1068 pts) GB: 3
# = Division Leader
% = Wildcard

Division Standings

Old Kids
Smurfs (8-5; 1248 pts) GB: -
Inoculators (7-6; 1195 pts) GB: 1
PBC (6-6-1; 1283 pts) GB: 1.5
Saints (6-7; 1238 pts) GB: 2

Young Kids
Zou (8-4-1; 1313 pts) GB: -
Just LT (6-7; 1279 pts) GB: 2.5
Wannabees (5-6-2; 1213 pts) GB: 2.5
Not Good (3-8-2; 1068 pts) Eliminated

Overall Standing for Top Seed in Playoffs

Zou (8-4-1; 1313 pts) GB: -
Smurfs (8-5; 1248 pts) GB: .5
Inoculators (7-6; 1195 pts) GB: 1.5
PBC (6-6-1; 1283 pts) GB: 2
Just LT (6-7; 1279 pts) GB: 2.5
Saints (6-7; 1238 pts) GB: 2.5
Wannabees (5-6-2; 1213 pts) GB: 3
Not Good (3-8-2; 1068 pts) Eliminated