Here are the draft results from last season. Keeping a player will cost you the round the player was drafted in. Keeper selections need to be in as soon as possible so we can set a draft date.
First Round
Frank Gore
Joseph Addai
Carson Palmer
Steven Jackson
LaDainian Tomlinson
Peyton Manning
Willie Parker
Reggie Bush
Shaun Alexander
Larry Johnson
Second Round
Travis Henry
Laurence Maroney
Drew Brees
Brian Westbrook
Steve Smith
Tom Brady
Donovan McNabb
Rudi Johnson
Maurice Jones-Drew
Willis McGahee
Third Round
Chad Johnson
Phillip Rivers
Terell Owens
Marvin Harrison
Cedric Benson
Ronnie Brown
Clinton Portis
Deuce McAllister
Reggie Wayne
Thomas Jones
Fourth Round
Larry Fitzgerald
Torry Holt
Edgerrin James
Antonio Gates
Marion Barber
Roy Williams
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Carnell Williams
Marques Colston
Marc Bulger
Fifth Round
Donald Driver
Lavernues Coles
Randy Moss
Andre Johnson
Anquan Boldin
Tony Gonzalez
Plaxico Burress
Javon Walker
Matt Hasselbeck
Sixth Round
Kellen Winslow
Alge Crumpler
Jeremy Shockey
Vince Yound
Marshawn Lynch
Randy McCichael
Vernon Davis
Todd Heap
Ladell Betts
Seventh Round
DeShaun Foster
Muhsin Muhammad
Patriots D
Bears D
Ravens D
Hines Ward
Deion Branch
Joey Galloway
Fred Taylor Matt Leinart
Eighth Round
Broncos D
Darell Jackson
Chargers D
Eli Manning
Santana Moss
Jamal Lewis
Braylon Edwards
Adam Vinatieri
Mack Clayton
Chris Chambers
Ninth Round
Reggie Brown
Jay Culter
Julius Jones
Adrian Peterson
Terry Glenn
DeAngelo Williams
Isaac Bruce
Jerricho Cotchery
LaMont Jordan
Brandon Jackson
Tenth Round
Calvin Johnson
Warrick Dunn
Chester Taylor
Jerious Norwood
Tatum Bell
Chris Cooley
Tony Romo
Jaguars D
Bernard Berrian
Benjamin Watson
Eleventh Round
Vincent Jackson
Santonio Holmes
Dallas Clark
Ahman Green
Brett Favre
Joe Horn
Matt Jones
Ben Roethlisberger
LJ Smith
Jon Kitna
Twelfth Round
LenDale White
Donte Stallworth
Vernand Morency
Dolphins D
Mike Furrey
Reuben Droughns
Shayne Graham
Jerry Porter
Greg Jennings
Jason Witten
Thirteenth Round
Jake Delhomme
Vikings D
Michael Bennett
Chris Brown
Devery Henderson
Kevin Curtis
Nate Kaeding
Drew Bennett
Brandon Marshall
Derrick Mason
Fourteenth Round
Robbie Gould
Heath Miller
Jeff Wilkins
Eagles D
Eddie Kennison
Joe Jurevicius
Steelers D
Trent Green
Daniel Graham
Neil Rackers
Fifteenth Round
Panthers D
D.J. Hackett
Reggie Williams
Eric Johnson
Josh Brown
Cowboys D
Owen Kaniels
Wes Welker
Chiefs D
Michael Jenkins
Sixteenth Round
Michael Turner
Matt Stover
Chris Henry
Olindo Mare
Jason Elam
Brodie Croyle
James Jones
Dominic Rhodes
Stephen Gostkowski
Jason Campbell
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Sunday, January 20, 2008
NYG at GB
Pre-Game
I do not want to think about the media circus that I will have to deal with for two freaking weeks if there is a New England/New York Superbowl. I cannot handle listening to Boston vs New York, Red Sox vs Yankees, Northeast sports crap. If there is anything I can deal with is a whole bunch Brady/Favre features. I can deal with that. I cannot deal with a whole bunch of “The Other Manning” features. Oh God not “The Other Manning” features. EEEEEWWWW. Please win, Green Bay, please win.
The key fantasy guys to watch are Ryan Grant and Brandon Jacobs. A big day from either of them means Andrew has all but locked up the fantasy championship.
Then again, the Superbowl is indoors. Brady could go off for 100 points. Maybe.
An update on my food intake: Skittles, sweet pickles, Gatorade, buffalo wings, pizza and Cherry Coke. The end list was better than the beginning of the list. You would think that stuff wouldn’t mix well. Well, you’re thinking right.
Frank Callindo is really good at those impressions. Too bad he can’t do anyone under the age of 98. And has anyone seen Frank TV? Is it even on TV anymore?
Its weird seeing a commercial dedicated to great offensive lineman and seeing Chiefs featured. I almost forgot that we were really good on offense once.
It also needs to be noted that Green Bay looks AMAZING in HD. I mean A-M-A-Z-I-N-G!
Troy Aikman looks like he going to die sometime in the middle of this broadcast. This is going to be an exciting game. I’m going to have to keep a body count.
If this writers strike continues, baseball games are going to get some insane ratings. Because between the Superbowl and April there is NOTHING on tv. Nothing.
15:00
And the ball falls off the tee! The ball falls off the tee!
Lawrence Tynes could go to the Superbowl. Damnit.
14:54
Didn’t take long for a fight to break out. People just tryin’ to stay warm man.
14:49
The fullback is the last guy I would want to be hit by if I were a Giant.
14:09
Followed by the tight end.
13:13
$10 says Buck gets too cold and mispronounces “Tuck” by the end of the game. Hey! Maybe he’ll get fired and banned from TV! YES! I have something to root for now!
12:46
There are crazy people not wearing sleeves. Crazy people those footballers, crazy.
11:36
Eli Manning still looks like he is 19 years old. Does he ever intend on growing up?
11:09
There are some awesome names in this game, such as the guy who just made a tackle. Too bad I can’t spell any of them.
9:25
How drunk do you have to get to feel warm at that game right now? Ok, fine, I’ll be the guanine pig on this one and find out…
8:14
Oh God, the Giants are driving. My worst dreams are going to come true aren’t they?
7:49
Plaxico Burress has about 90 catches on this drive. Who has him and why didn’t they start him? Oh yeah, that’s right. His quarterback is Eli Manning and its –1 degrees outside and dropping. Forgot. Sorry about that.
6:21
Has Eli been inhabited by Peyton? This is messed up.
4:57
You know, last week at this time, the score was tied at 14. Now, the Giants are finishing up the second possession of the game.
On a side note, Eli almost threw an interception… to a defensive tackle.
4:53
A field goal by the Chiefs’ Lawrence Tynes and the score is 3-0.
4: 43
An update, nine people dead in Green Bay – one of which is Tom Coughlin. Have you seen his face yet? It’s even worse in HD.
4:25
There is a band! There is band trying to play! No way! How the hell do you play trumpet in this weather? I am having trouble believing what I have just learned.
3:27
Okay, so when white people get really cold their skin turns red. What happens to black people? And why is it that the skin around the eye-sockets doesn’t turn red? Theses are the things I want to know.
2:34
Toomer has a Sammie Parker moment. Could have used that catch.
1:08
I’m not a big fan of Fox and the realization of the Superbowl being on Fox just sent a wave of depression through my body. Ugh. I can’t handle more Joe Buck.
:00
End of the first quarter. 23 people dead.
14:55
Just saw that offensive line commercial again, and I confirm that there were Chiefs on it. That’s messed up.
14:08
LOL! The Packers “forgot” to turn the heat on for the Giants heating bench. Funny.
11:59
Jumper, the film rippoff version of Heroes or a decent February movie? Discuss.
11: 46
Tyree can’t hall in a pass that would have given the Giants a first and goal. Instead the Chiefs add on to their lead with a field goal from Lawrence Tynes. 6, nil.
11:18
Donald Driver 90-yard touchdown reception! Andrew goes wild! After 20 minutes of Burress making Andrew feel like a poophead, Donald Driver catches a 90-yard touchdown to give the Packers a 7-6 lead. That was a 17-point catch by Driver. I guess Brett owed him for the OT pass that caused Andrew’s only loss in another league.
So I just saw a commercial naming the Sara Connor Chronicles as the number one new show. I didn’t realize there was more than one new show on TV. Huh.
10:31
I guess black people don’t get cold. I just saw one sweating. Weird.
9:52
BIGBY NAILS BURRESS, but Burress holds onto the ball. Where’s the slow mo? I’m in need of an orgasm.
8:56
Green Bay special teams have been trying to give this game away. What terrible decision making.
I could really use one of those 90-yard TD passes to Jennings. Anytime now Brett.
7:26
Jennings almost breaks one! DAMNIT! But Aikman says he’s going to be a superstar. Good tip for keepers.
6:38
Buck is really working on accenting the “T” in “Tuck”. I really want him to “Tuck”-up his name.
6:21
Both Special Teams coaches in this game need to get fired. And yes, I’m in a fire-happy mood.
5:38
Brandon Jacobs is amazing. Geez.
4:35
You know the play is going nowhere when the announcer says this, “The snap is fumbled, flags are flying and the pass is incomplete.”
Yikes.
4:14
Ryan Grant is not built for cold weather running. This is more Brandon Jacobs territory. I would love to see LJ run in this weather behind a good o-line. That would be fun.
2:40
If I were to do a Playoff Luck Factor Blog, Andrew would score a 1484. I don’t know if that is possible, but that would be my estimation. Did anyone see a big passing day coming out of this weather? Unthinkable.
1:52
TD pass for Jennings is incomplete. Story of my life.
1:34
Crosby nails a 37-yard field goal to extend the lead to 10-6.
Note: There will be no second half blog due to other responsibilities elsewhere. I’ll try to have the scoring updates up tonight. I’ll definitely have them up by tomorrow morning.
1:11
I want that Bigby guy. What do we have to do to get him? I’ll give you Croyle????
1:03
Harris is being owned by Burress. And I mean OWNED!
:05
The Giants can’t pull off a fast, long drive like they did last week so Green Bay will keep their 10-6 lead going into halftime.
Scoring Update
Ben
Philip Rivers = 4
Greg Jennings = 1
Ben Watson = 0
Stephen Goskowski = 3
Week Total = 8
Overall Total = 139
Andrew
Brandon Jacobs = 3
Laurence Maroney = 23
Ryan Grant = 1
Donald Driver = 24
Chris Chambers = 9
Week Total = 60
Overall Total = 243
Chris
Tom Brady = 10
LDT = 0
Wes Welker = 11
Sinorice Moss = 0
Donald Lee = 1
Mason Crosby = 4
Chargers DEF/ST = 8
Week Total = 34
Overall Total = 193
Casey
Amani Toomer = 0
Randy Moss = 2
New England DEF/ST = 9
Week Total = 11
Overall Total = 166
I do not want to think about the media circus that I will have to deal with for two freaking weeks if there is a New England/New York Superbowl. I cannot handle listening to Boston vs New York, Red Sox vs Yankees, Northeast sports crap. If there is anything I can deal with is a whole bunch Brady/Favre features. I can deal with that. I cannot deal with a whole bunch of “The Other Manning” features. Oh God not “The Other Manning” features. EEEEEWWWW. Please win, Green Bay, please win.
The key fantasy guys to watch are Ryan Grant and Brandon Jacobs. A big day from either of them means Andrew has all but locked up the fantasy championship.
Then again, the Superbowl is indoors. Brady could go off for 100 points. Maybe.
An update on my food intake: Skittles, sweet pickles, Gatorade, buffalo wings, pizza and Cherry Coke. The end list was better than the beginning of the list. You would think that stuff wouldn’t mix well. Well, you’re thinking right.
Frank Callindo is really good at those impressions. Too bad he can’t do anyone under the age of 98. And has anyone seen Frank TV? Is it even on TV anymore?
Its weird seeing a commercial dedicated to great offensive lineman and seeing Chiefs featured. I almost forgot that we were really good on offense once.
It also needs to be noted that Green Bay looks AMAZING in HD. I mean A-M-A-Z-I-N-G!
Troy Aikman looks like he going to die sometime in the middle of this broadcast. This is going to be an exciting game. I’m going to have to keep a body count.
If this writers strike continues, baseball games are going to get some insane ratings. Because between the Superbowl and April there is NOTHING on tv. Nothing.
15:00
And the ball falls off the tee! The ball falls off the tee!
Lawrence Tynes could go to the Superbowl. Damnit.
14:54
Didn’t take long for a fight to break out. People just tryin’ to stay warm man.
14:49
The fullback is the last guy I would want to be hit by if I were a Giant.
14:09
Followed by the tight end.
13:13
$10 says Buck gets too cold and mispronounces “Tuck” by the end of the game. Hey! Maybe he’ll get fired and banned from TV! YES! I have something to root for now!
12:46
There are crazy people not wearing sleeves. Crazy people those footballers, crazy.
11:36
Eli Manning still looks like he is 19 years old. Does he ever intend on growing up?
11:09
There are some awesome names in this game, such as the guy who just made a tackle. Too bad I can’t spell any of them.
9:25
How drunk do you have to get to feel warm at that game right now? Ok, fine, I’ll be the guanine pig on this one and find out…
8:14
Oh God, the Giants are driving. My worst dreams are going to come true aren’t they?
7:49
Plaxico Burress has about 90 catches on this drive. Who has him and why didn’t they start him? Oh yeah, that’s right. His quarterback is Eli Manning and its –1 degrees outside and dropping. Forgot. Sorry about that.
6:21
Has Eli been inhabited by Peyton? This is messed up.
4:57
You know, last week at this time, the score was tied at 14. Now, the Giants are finishing up the second possession of the game.
On a side note, Eli almost threw an interception… to a defensive tackle.
4:53
A field goal by the Chiefs’ Lawrence Tynes and the score is 3-0.
4: 43
An update, nine people dead in Green Bay – one of which is Tom Coughlin. Have you seen his face yet? It’s even worse in HD.
4:25
There is a band! There is band trying to play! No way! How the hell do you play trumpet in this weather? I am having trouble believing what I have just learned.
3:27
Okay, so when white people get really cold their skin turns red. What happens to black people? And why is it that the skin around the eye-sockets doesn’t turn red? Theses are the things I want to know.
2:34
Toomer has a Sammie Parker moment. Could have used that catch.
1:08
I’m not a big fan of Fox and the realization of the Superbowl being on Fox just sent a wave of depression through my body. Ugh. I can’t handle more Joe Buck.
:00
End of the first quarter. 23 people dead.
14:55
Just saw that offensive line commercial again, and I confirm that there were Chiefs on it. That’s messed up.
14:08
LOL! The Packers “forgot” to turn the heat on for the Giants heating bench. Funny.
11:59
Jumper, the film rippoff version of Heroes or a decent February movie? Discuss.
11: 46
Tyree can’t hall in a pass that would have given the Giants a first and goal. Instead the Chiefs add on to their lead with a field goal from Lawrence Tynes. 6, nil.
11:18
Donald Driver 90-yard touchdown reception! Andrew goes wild! After 20 minutes of Burress making Andrew feel like a poophead, Donald Driver catches a 90-yard touchdown to give the Packers a 7-6 lead. That was a 17-point catch by Driver. I guess Brett owed him for the OT pass that caused Andrew’s only loss in another league.
So I just saw a commercial naming the Sara Connor Chronicles as the number one new show. I didn’t realize there was more than one new show on TV. Huh.
10:31
I guess black people don’t get cold. I just saw one sweating. Weird.
9:52
BIGBY NAILS BURRESS, but Burress holds onto the ball. Where’s the slow mo? I’m in need of an orgasm.
8:56
Green Bay special teams have been trying to give this game away. What terrible decision making.
I could really use one of those 90-yard TD passes to Jennings. Anytime now Brett.
7:26
Jennings almost breaks one! DAMNIT! But Aikman says he’s going to be a superstar. Good tip for keepers.
6:38
Buck is really working on accenting the “T” in “Tuck”. I really want him to “Tuck”-up his name.
6:21
Both Special Teams coaches in this game need to get fired. And yes, I’m in a fire-happy mood.
5:38
Brandon Jacobs is amazing. Geez.
4:35
You know the play is going nowhere when the announcer says this, “The snap is fumbled, flags are flying and the pass is incomplete.”
Yikes.
4:14
Ryan Grant is not built for cold weather running. This is more Brandon Jacobs territory. I would love to see LJ run in this weather behind a good o-line. That would be fun.
2:40
If I were to do a Playoff Luck Factor Blog, Andrew would score a 1484. I don’t know if that is possible, but that would be my estimation. Did anyone see a big passing day coming out of this weather? Unthinkable.
1:52
TD pass for Jennings is incomplete. Story of my life.
1:34
Crosby nails a 37-yard field goal to extend the lead to 10-6.
Note: There will be no second half blog due to other responsibilities elsewhere. I’ll try to have the scoring updates up tonight. I’ll definitely have them up by tomorrow morning.
1:11
I want that Bigby guy. What do we have to do to get him? I’ll give you Croyle????
1:03
Harris is being owned by Burress. And I mean OWNED!
:05
The Giants can’t pull off a fast, long drive like they did last week so Green Bay will keep their 10-6 lead going into halftime.
Scoring Update
Ben
Philip Rivers = 4
Greg Jennings = 1
Ben Watson = 0
Stephen Goskowski = 3
Week Total = 8
Overall Total = 139
Andrew
Brandon Jacobs = 3
Laurence Maroney = 23
Ryan Grant = 1
Donald Driver = 24
Chris Chambers = 9
Week Total = 60
Overall Total = 243
Chris
Tom Brady = 10
LDT = 0
Wes Welker = 11
Sinorice Moss = 0
Donald Lee = 1
Mason Crosby = 4
Chargers DEF/ST = 8
Week Total = 34
Overall Total = 193
Casey
Amani Toomer = 0
Randy Moss = 2
New England DEF/ST = 9
Week Total = 11
Overall Total = 166
SD at NE Second Half
15:00
…No, I can’t. Yes, I can. No, I can’t. Yes, I can. No, I can’t. Yes, I can. No, I can’t. Yes, I can. No, I can’t. Yes, I can. No, I can’t. Yes, I can. No, I can’t. Yes, I can. No, I can’t. Yes, I can.
14: 46
A drive and score here can really put SD in a bind.
13:26
INTERCEPTION! SD with the pick and all of a sudden SD can take the lead!
12: 34
Rivers is still alive. How?
10:12
Chambers and Jackson are really picking apart the NE secondary. If there is a weakness to New England it is there defense. They don’t play from behind much and most teams abandon the run early. But their secondary and linebackers (with Colvin being hurt) is very suspect and, in many ways, old.
9:59
I now predict that Rivers knee will blow out by the end of this game. I know Rivers didn’t have a great season, but it’s not like he sucks. I would certainly take him over Croyle right now. He’s going to be a very good quarterback (not great though) for a long time. That’s unfortunate for us.
It should be noted that I finally found time to order pizza.
9:22
Junior Seau makes a MASSIVE play to tackle Turner in the backfield and force another San Diego field goal. That is three times now that SD has had to settle for a field goal after driving inside the NE 10.
Field goal is good. 14-12 NE.
This is also a good time to note that my laptop sucks and cannot pick up any internet signal, making this whole process very difficult. I know MACs are supposedly turning into the “not cool” think, but I really wouldn’t mind a MacBookPro right now. Really, I wouldn’t.
8:36
Anybody else hearing the phantom whistles during kickoffs and punts? I swear I’m hearing something.
Did I ever mention the story of the first time my mom got drunk? I’ll have to do that later then won’t I?
(Teaser: She was 46 years old and thought that “Lite” beer meant there was less alcohol in it.)
8:21
Maroney finally has a big run for NE. Andrew should get used to this because I he is going to see tonight is handoffs to his backs. Well done by Andrew to pick three of the four starting running backs in today’s games.
I love this new Nike commercial for the new Jordans, showing all of the home film footage of some of the great modern athletes playing in little league and high school. It’s pretty sweet. I like those kind of commercials for some reason.
7:44
Maroney follows his long run with a zero yard run. Nice.
7:05
Finally, Randy Moss has a reception. Speaking of Moss, Casey barely got his lineup in before kickoff. One of his starters? Terrell Owens.
6:22
Another first down run for Maroney and SD defense looks a little gassed. SD needs to hold NE to a field goal if they want to win this game.
3:56
Remember the last time the Chiefs were in the AFC Championship game? I was nine, Joe Montana died and Daddy was still alive then too.
2:56
HOLY CRAP CROMARTIE WITH AN AMAZING INTERCEPTION OF BRADY IN THE ENDZONE! Wow what a turn of events! Brady losses four fantasy points for Chris! Andrew is elated! Chris does get two points from the SD defense though.
In other news, MY PIZZA GOT HERE!
2:20
SD is moving, which means they’ll get a field goal.
But now its 3rd and long.
1:48
Phil Simms just inferred that NE doesn’t like the way its going. You think?
1:44
An incomplete pass by Rivers forces a punt. But that pick by Cromartie saved the game for SD.
215 red-zone passes by Brady = 62 touchdowns and one interception.
:14
End of the third quarter means… I GET TO EAT!
13:22
Slow motion collisions! ORGASMIC! YEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!
12:15
Touchdown Wes Welker. 21-12 NE. Anyone else see a run on Texas Tech receivers in the draft for the next couple of years?
9:12
You know your job as a punter sucks when you have the ball downed at the 12 and the commentator says, “That’s not deep enough.” Really? An 88-yard drive for a touchdown is not long enough for you Jim?
9:03
Laurence. Maroney. Tearing it up.
8:58
Brady is sacked and then slow to get up. You could hear the concern in the reaction of the fans when Brady laid on the ground for a little bit. I whish he would have stayed down.
7:04
Kevin Faulk catches and then rolls for the first down. And with that, the game is over. I’m going to eat more pizza now.
But not until I mention that Maroney almost died on the ensuing handoff.
5:06
Kevin Faulk with another catch and run for a first down. SD now only has one timeout left.
It should be noted that Chris is going to be the only one left with a quarterback. But Andrew is going to keep Maroney and either Jacobs or Grant depending on game two’s results. Andrew is looking like he’s in prime position to win the playoffs.
2:00
Now would be a really good time for one of those Eff You Touchdown’s to Ben Watson.
And, is anyone else getting depressed each time they mention the Lamar Hunt Trophy? Or are you at least getting depressed that there are only two more football games left until September? Ugh. I guess there’s the draft…
Which would be more bizarre/creepy/awesome, Reggie Bush, Antonio Gates and Jason Witten all standing at your door wanting to play or a talking cartoon referee?
:44
NE is going to the Superbowl. Bastards. GO PACK GO!
Scoring Update
Ben
Philip Rivers = 4
Greg Jennings =
Ben Watson = 0
Stephen Goskowski = 3
Week Total = 7
Overall Total = 138
Andrew
Brandon Jacobs =
Laurence Maroney = 23
Ryan Grant =
Donald Driver =
Chris Chambers = 9
Week Total = 32
Overall Total = 215
Chris
Tom Brady = 10
LDT = 0
Wes Welker = 11
Sinorice Moss =
Donald Lee =
Mason Crosby =
Chargers DEF/ST = 8
Week Total = 29
Overall Total = 188
Casey
Amani Toomer =
Randy Moss = 2
New England DEF/ST = 9
Week Total = 11
Overall Total = 166
…No, I can’t. Yes, I can. No, I can’t. Yes, I can. No, I can’t. Yes, I can. No, I can’t. Yes, I can. No, I can’t. Yes, I can. No, I can’t. Yes, I can. No, I can’t. Yes, I can. No, I can’t. Yes, I can.
14: 46
A drive and score here can really put SD in a bind.
13:26
INTERCEPTION! SD with the pick and all of a sudden SD can take the lead!
12: 34
Rivers is still alive. How?
10:12
Chambers and Jackson are really picking apart the NE secondary. If there is a weakness to New England it is there defense. They don’t play from behind much and most teams abandon the run early. But their secondary and linebackers (with Colvin being hurt) is very suspect and, in many ways, old.
9:59
I now predict that Rivers knee will blow out by the end of this game. I know Rivers didn’t have a great season, but it’s not like he sucks. I would certainly take him over Croyle right now. He’s going to be a very good quarterback (not great though) for a long time. That’s unfortunate for us.
It should be noted that I finally found time to order pizza.
9:22
Junior Seau makes a MASSIVE play to tackle Turner in the backfield and force another San Diego field goal. That is three times now that SD has had to settle for a field goal after driving inside the NE 10.
Field goal is good. 14-12 NE.
This is also a good time to note that my laptop sucks and cannot pick up any internet signal, making this whole process very difficult. I know MACs are supposedly turning into the “not cool” think, but I really wouldn’t mind a MacBookPro right now. Really, I wouldn’t.
8:36
Anybody else hearing the phantom whistles during kickoffs and punts? I swear I’m hearing something.
Did I ever mention the story of the first time my mom got drunk? I’ll have to do that later then won’t I?
(Teaser: She was 46 years old and thought that “Lite” beer meant there was less alcohol in it.)
8:21
Maroney finally has a big run for NE. Andrew should get used to this because I he is going to see tonight is handoffs to his backs. Well done by Andrew to pick three of the four starting running backs in today’s games.
I love this new Nike commercial for the new Jordans, showing all of the home film footage of some of the great modern athletes playing in little league and high school. It’s pretty sweet. I like those kind of commercials for some reason.
7:44
Maroney follows his long run with a zero yard run. Nice.
7:05
Finally, Randy Moss has a reception. Speaking of Moss, Casey barely got his lineup in before kickoff. One of his starters? Terrell Owens.
6:22
Another first down run for Maroney and SD defense looks a little gassed. SD needs to hold NE to a field goal if they want to win this game.
3:56
Remember the last time the Chiefs were in the AFC Championship game? I was nine, Joe Montana died and Daddy was still alive then too.
2:56
HOLY CRAP CROMARTIE WITH AN AMAZING INTERCEPTION OF BRADY IN THE ENDZONE! Wow what a turn of events! Brady losses four fantasy points for Chris! Andrew is elated! Chris does get two points from the SD defense though.
In other news, MY PIZZA GOT HERE!
2:20
SD is moving, which means they’ll get a field goal.
But now its 3rd and long.
1:48
Phil Simms just inferred that NE doesn’t like the way its going. You think?
1:44
An incomplete pass by Rivers forces a punt. But that pick by Cromartie saved the game for SD.
215 red-zone passes by Brady = 62 touchdowns and one interception.
:14
End of the third quarter means… I GET TO EAT!
13:22
Slow motion collisions! ORGASMIC! YEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!
12:15
Touchdown Wes Welker. 21-12 NE. Anyone else see a run on Texas Tech receivers in the draft for the next couple of years?
9:12
You know your job as a punter sucks when you have the ball downed at the 12 and the commentator says, “That’s not deep enough.” Really? An 88-yard drive for a touchdown is not long enough for you Jim?
9:03
Laurence. Maroney. Tearing it up.
8:58
Brady is sacked and then slow to get up. You could hear the concern in the reaction of the fans when Brady laid on the ground for a little bit. I whish he would have stayed down.
7:04
Kevin Faulk catches and then rolls for the first down. And with that, the game is over. I’m going to eat more pizza now.
But not until I mention that Maroney almost died on the ensuing handoff.
5:06
Kevin Faulk with another catch and run for a first down. SD now only has one timeout left.
It should be noted that Chris is going to be the only one left with a quarterback. But Andrew is going to keep Maroney and either Jacobs or Grant depending on game two’s results. Andrew is looking like he’s in prime position to win the playoffs.
2:00
Now would be a really good time for one of those Eff You Touchdown’s to Ben Watson.
And, is anyone else getting depressed each time they mention the Lamar Hunt Trophy? Or are you at least getting depressed that there are only two more football games left until September? Ugh. I guess there’s the draft…
Which would be more bizarre/creepy/awesome, Reggie Bush, Antonio Gates and Jason Witten all standing at your door wanting to play or a talking cartoon referee?
:44
NE is going to the Superbowl. Bastards. GO PACK GO!
Scoring Update
Ben
Philip Rivers = 4
Greg Jennings =
Ben Watson = 0
Stephen Goskowski = 3
Week Total = 7
Overall Total = 138
Andrew
Brandon Jacobs =
Laurence Maroney = 23
Ryan Grant =
Donald Driver =
Chris Chambers = 9
Week Total = 32
Overall Total = 215
Chris
Tom Brady = 10
LDT = 0
Wes Welker = 11
Sinorice Moss =
Donald Lee =
Mason Crosby =
Chargers DEF/ST = 8
Week Total = 29
Overall Total = 188
Casey
Amani Toomer =
Randy Moss = 2
New England DEF/ST = 9
Week Total = 11
Overall Total = 166
SD at NE First Half
Pre-Game
CBS AFC Championship Game Intro = Greatest. Intro. Ever. I want to kill someone (on the football field that is).
In terms of fantasy, the only good thing Chris has going for him is that it’s a day game, its semi-warm and decent throwing conditions. So Tom Brady may have a decent throwing day.
What he doesn’t have going for him is that Brandon Jacobs and Ryan Grant are going run for 750 yards in the NFC Championship game.
Chris needs a New England win and a big day from Brady if he wants to say in this thing.
Ben and Casey are pretty much out of it, but Ben does have a shot to finish third and possibly second if San Diego pulls off the upset and Greg Jennings has a big day in the Superbowl. Hey, Ben did win the luck factor this year so who knows.
15:00
Jim Nance with this brilliant line:
“Kick to Sproles and he knows how to return them.” Really Jim? Now, if you were saying this as a reaction to Eddie Drummand finally learning how to not fall down by the slightest touch, then maybe I’d understand that comment.
13:31
Rivers looks nervous planting on that right leg. This could be a long (or in his case, short) day for him.
13:21
NE MAKES A MISTAKE AND RUNS INTO THE KICKER! What are the odds that it doesn’t matter?
13:19
Phil Simms with some nice insight into a poor coaching decision by Norv Turner. What are the odds of a poor coaching decision by Norv Turner?
13:08
BRADY THROWNS AND INCOMPLETE PASS! BRADY CALLS AN INCOMPLETE PASS!
12:19
Three and out for New England. UPSET!!! (cue turnover for touchdown…..now!)
12:11
Umm… Sproles almost turns it over. I scare myself sometimes.
12:05
Looks like LDT will trade off series with Turner. Not a good sign for Chris.
What is a good sign for Ben is a nice first down pass from Rivers. SWEET!
11:04
ANOTHER FIRST DOWN PASS BY RIVERS! RIVERS IS THE BRETT FAVRE OF AFC COLD WEATHER GAMES!!! (Not really. Actually, not even close.)
10:20
LDT. Screen. One yard. Somewhere (probably in Bolivar) Chris is pissed for not taking Ward… or not.
9:57
Bud Light “Dude” commercials = Me
9:06
Phil Simms key to the game, “22 eyes on Brady.” That would mean a pretty good day for Moss wouldn’t it?
8:14
NE running game equals nothing early on.
7:36
BEN WATSON! COME BACK BABY!!!
7:05
No confidence in running game equals a bad pass on 3rd and 1, which leads to a punt. I project San Diego to score on this drive.
6:53
New CBS TV Show “Dexter” has to be the best/worst/creepiest/intriguing/reach of a show idea ever. A serial killer who hunts serial killers? And if there is a world where there are so many serial killers that they need to hire a serial killer to find them all, I’m killing myself. That can’t be the best sign for the world can it? We need more positive tv shows like “House.”
5:31
I missed on my prediction. God I suck at predictions.
5:15
Slow motion camera capturing a sack equals an orgasm for Ben.
Do you think people are going to be really pissed off about commercial breaks in Green Bay? I mean if it is going to be –897689 degrees and Fox wants to get in there 15th commercial of the last five minutes, do you think there may be a revolt by fans at the game? Or at least our first mass deaths at an NFL game. Fox = terrorists.
5:07
BRADY IS PICKED! Note: I count this as a continuation of the drive before by SD, so if they score my predictions stands.
4:06
CHAMBERS with an insane catch on the sidelines. How about that mid-season pick up for San Diego, huh? Geez, if San Diego adds a top end rookie receiver to their team, they will be unstoppable. Note: Norv Turner is not factored into the previous sentence.
3:05
I love passes to fullbacks. (Sarcasm).
2:59
HOLY CRAP! Rivers makes an insane throw into quadruple coverage that Chambers catches in the endzone. Too bad he was out of bounds.
2:56
Kaeding with the field goal (barely) and confirms by prediction that San Diego would score. I am a genious of foretelling events relating to football.
2:50
Is John Carney kicking off for San Diego now?
And what do you think Donnie Edwards is thinking right now?
What do you think Laurence Tynes is thinking right now?
What am I thinking right now?
2:13
Another 3rd and 1. They do convert with a Heath Evans run. But New England isn’t looking so good so far. And they have the winds at their back.
:48
Moss on the reverse for the first down. Pass in the flat to Faulk for a first down. So much for that “not looking so good” comment.
:00
Third and short for NE. Quarter ends. SD up 3-0. A touchdown to open the second quarter for NE and a failure to immediately respond from SD will officially end this game. A field goal or no score from NE to open the second quarter and this game will remain wide open.
Speaking of wide open, any body watching the Presidential race? GO OBAMA!
15:00
Subway commercial of guy wanting to photo copy his but is very disturbing. Moreso than that “Dexter” show.
Remember “Dexter’s Laboratory”? That “Dexter” show is going to ruin my view of what was a great cartoon for the rest of my life if “Dexter” becomes a hit show.
14:01
Slow motion reception to Faulk does not equal orgasm for Ben.
13:56
Touchdown Maroney. Bad news for Chris. Good news for the Patriots. 7-3 New England.
Also, I figured out the whole Iraq problem. All of our Marines are filming commercials. If we would just stop filming commercials, we could have this Iraq thing done by now.
13:31
Brilliance of Norv Turner: Decides to sit LDT for Turner. Actually, that might be a good decision.
12:36
Rivers has looked pretty good far despite his injury. It will be interesting to see if he holds up.
11:21
Holy crap San Diego is moving. Long pass to Jackson equals a first and goal from the nine. Where did all of these San Diego receivers come from? They have been all over the place during the playoffs.
I think now is a good time mention that I drafted Philip Rivers over Cedric Benson.
10:01
I just realized that we are only two weeks away from the best commercials of the year!
Oh, and a short gain on third and goal forces a Nate Kaeding field goal. He hits and the score is 7-6 NE.
Note: Today’s lunch so far: Skittles, sweet pickles and Gatorade. Yeah, I need a wife that can cook.
Also, I can’t live in world where an Iowa alum wins a big game to go to the Superbowl. I just can’t. I’m counting on you Rivers, I’m counting on you.
9:03
All of these Faulk dump passes are really annoying. Come on Patriots, I expected more from you.
7:19
Quinton Jammer is having one heck of a first half. NE finally got Moss off of Cramartie and they still can’t compete a pass to him.
7:09
An awesome play by Kelly Washington downs the ball at the four. This could turn ugly quick if San Diego can’t mount a dive of value.
6:27
Two short runs and now SD has a huge fourth down coming up. SD converts on a first down pass to Sproles. Man I’m glad the Chiefs didn’t draft him.
4:36
An ill-advised pass by Rivers equals a Samuels interception. It should be noted that Samuels is a free agent after this season.
4:28
Another Kevin Faulk catch equals another New England first down. I now project Faulk being the highest fantasy guy in this game.
3:51
Brady with a touchdown pass to Jabbar Gaffney means Chris is doing some kind of happy dance in Bolivar. 14-6 Patriots.
2:58
Another nice pass and catch from Rivers to Chambers. If the continue to throw like this, they’ll be in good shape. Too bad Rivers is going to throw a pick on the next play.
2:24
And Rivers throws an interception. Great.
2:18
I hope both coaches begin to figure out that it is too cold and too windy to be throwing the ball downfield all of the time.
2:11
Apparently, Kevin Faulk has stolen LDT’s skills. Additionally, I want New England’s line. Think they’ll trade it to us for Brodie Croyle (since we’re going to spend our first pick on a QB and all)?
1:32
Sproles: “He’s so little!!!”
1:10
HUGE RUN BY SPROLES TO THE 30! But it’s going to be reviewed. Not a good sign for SD since all review under 2 minutes come from the booth.
Darren Sproles is fast. REALLY fast. So glad we didn’t draft him.
:26
If NE not careful, SD could tie the game before halftime. NE doesn’t need that at the moment.
:18
Sproles can’t get out of bounds or the first down, which leave SD in a bad spot. Go for the endzone? First down, but risk not being able to stop the clock? Tough call.
:12
Rivers throws it away (good decision) and SD will settle for the field goal attempt. Kaeding is 0-4 from beyond 39 yards in the playoffs in his career. This one is a 40 yarder.
Kaeding sneaks it in and its 14-9.
One possession game. Halftime. Oh, boy. I can’t handle it. Yes I can. No I can’t. Yes I can. No I can’t. Yes I can….
Scoring Update
Ben
Philip Rivers = 1
Greg Jennings =
Ben Watson =
Stephen Goskowski = 2
Week Total = 3
Overall Total = 134
Andrew
Brandon Jacobs =
Laurence Maroney = 7
Ryan Grant =
Donald Driver =
Chris Chambers = 5
Week Total = 12
Overall Total = 195
Chris
Tom Brady = 5
LDT =
Wes Welker = 2
Sinorice Moss =
Donald Lee =
Mason Crosby =
Chargers DEF/ST = 2
Week Total = 9
Overall Total = 168
Casey
Amani Toomer =
Randy Moss = 1
New England DEF/ST = 5
Week Total = 6
Overall Total = 161
CBS AFC Championship Game Intro = Greatest. Intro. Ever. I want to kill someone (on the football field that is).
In terms of fantasy, the only good thing Chris has going for him is that it’s a day game, its semi-warm and decent throwing conditions. So Tom Brady may have a decent throwing day.
What he doesn’t have going for him is that Brandon Jacobs and Ryan Grant are going run for 750 yards in the NFC Championship game.
Chris needs a New England win and a big day from Brady if he wants to say in this thing.
Ben and Casey are pretty much out of it, but Ben does have a shot to finish third and possibly second if San Diego pulls off the upset and Greg Jennings has a big day in the Superbowl. Hey, Ben did win the luck factor this year so who knows.
15:00
Jim Nance with this brilliant line:
“Kick to Sproles and he knows how to return them.” Really Jim? Now, if you were saying this as a reaction to Eddie Drummand finally learning how to not fall down by the slightest touch, then maybe I’d understand that comment.
13:31
Rivers looks nervous planting on that right leg. This could be a long (or in his case, short) day for him.
13:21
NE MAKES A MISTAKE AND RUNS INTO THE KICKER! What are the odds that it doesn’t matter?
13:19
Phil Simms with some nice insight into a poor coaching decision by Norv Turner. What are the odds of a poor coaching decision by Norv Turner?
13:08
BRADY THROWNS AND INCOMPLETE PASS! BRADY CALLS AN INCOMPLETE PASS!
12:19
Three and out for New England. UPSET!!! (cue turnover for touchdown…..now!)
12:11
Umm… Sproles almost turns it over. I scare myself sometimes.
12:05
Looks like LDT will trade off series with Turner. Not a good sign for Chris.
What is a good sign for Ben is a nice first down pass from Rivers. SWEET!
11:04
ANOTHER FIRST DOWN PASS BY RIVERS! RIVERS IS THE BRETT FAVRE OF AFC COLD WEATHER GAMES!!! (Not really. Actually, not even close.)
10:20
LDT. Screen. One yard. Somewhere (probably in Bolivar) Chris is pissed for not taking Ward… or not.
9:57
Bud Light “Dude” commercials = Me
9:06
Phil Simms key to the game, “22 eyes on Brady.” That would mean a pretty good day for Moss wouldn’t it?
8:14
NE running game equals nothing early on.
7:36
BEN WATSON! COME BACK BABY!!!
7:05
No confidence in running game equals a bad pass on 3rd and 1, which leads to a punt. I project San Diego to score on this drive.
6:53
New CBS TV Show “Dexter” has to be the best/worst/creepiest/intriguing/reach of a show idea ever. A serial killer who hunts serial killers? And if there is a world where there are so many serial killers that they need to hire a serial killer to find them all, I’m killing myself. That can’t be the best sign for the world can it? We need more positive tv shows like “House.”
5:31
I missed on my prediction. God I suck at predictions.
5:15
Slow motion camera capturing a sack equals an orgasm for Ben.
Do you think people are going to be really pissed off about commercial breaks in Green Bay? I mean if it is going to be –897689 degrees and Fox wants to get in there 15th commercial of the last five minutes, do you think there may be a revolt by fans at the game? Or at least our first mass deaths at an NFL game. Fox = terrorists.
5:07
BRADY IS PICKED! Note: I count this as a continuation of the drive before by SD, so if they score my predictions stands.
4:06
CHAMBERS with an insane catch on the sidelines. How about that mid-season pick up for San Diego, huh? Geez, if San Diego adds a top end rookie receiver to their team, they will be unstoppable. Note: Norv Turner is not factored into the previous sentence.
3:05
I love passes to fullbacks. (Sarcasm).
2:59
HOLY CRAP! Rivers makes an insane throw into quadruple coverage that Chambers catches in the endzone. Too bad he was out of bounds.
2:56
Kaeding with the field goal (barely) and confirms by prediction that San Diego would score. I am a genious of foretelling events relating to football.
2:50
Is John Carney kicking off for San Diego now?
And what do you think Donnie Edwards is thinking right now?
What do you think Laurence Tynes is thinking right now?
What am I thinking right now?
2:13
Another 3rd and 1. They do convert with a Heath Evans run. But New England isn’t looking so good so far. And they have the winds at their back.
:48
Moss on the reverse for the first down. Pass in the flat to Faulk for a first down. So much for that “not looking so good” comment.
:00
Third and short for NE. Quarter ends. SD up 3-0. A touchdown to open the second quarter for NE and a failure to immediately respond from SD will officially end this game. A field goal or no score from NE to open the second quarter and this game will remain wide open.
Speaking of wide open, any body watching the Presidential race? GO OBAMA!
15:00
Subway commercial of guy wanting to photo copy his but is very disturbing. Moreso than that “Dexter” show.
Remember “Dexter’s Laboratory”? That “Dexter” show is going to ruin my view of what was a great cartoon for the rest of my life if “Dexter” becomes a hit show.
14:01
Slow motion reception to Faulk does not equal orgasm for Ben.
13:56
Touchdown Maroney. Bad news for Chris. Good news for the Patriots. 7-3 New England.
Also, I figured out the whole Iraq problem. All of our Marines are filming commercials. If we would just stop filming commercials, we could have this Iraq thing done by now.
13:31
Brilliance of Norv Turner: Decides to sit LDT for Turner. Actually, that might be a good decision.
12:36
Rivers has looked pretty good far despite his injury. It will be interesting to see if he holds up.
11:21
Holy crap San Diego is moving. Long pass to Jackson equals a first and goal from the nine. Where did all of these San Diego receivers come from? They have been all over the place during the playoffs.
I think now is a good time mention that I drafted Philip Rivers over Cedric Benson.
10:01
I just realized that we are only two weeks away from the best commercials of the year!
Oh, and a short gain on third and goal forces a Nate Kaeding field goal. He hits and the score is 7-6 NE.
Note: Today’s lunch so far: Skittles, sweet pickles and Gatorade. Yeah, I need a wife that can cook.
Also, I can’t live in world where an Iowa alum wins a big game to go to the Superbowl. I just can’t. I’m counting on you Rivers, I’m counting on you.
9:03
All of these Faulk dump passes are really annoying. Come on Patriots, I expected more from you.
7:19
Quinton Jammer is having one heck of a first half. NE finally got Moss off of Cramartie and they still can’t compete a pass to him.
7:09
An awesome play by Kelly Washington downs the ball at the four. This could turn ugly quick if San Diego can’t mount a dive of value.
6:27
Two short runs and now SD has a huge fourth down coming up. SD converts on a first down pass to Sproles. Man I’m glad the Chiefs didn’t draft him.
4:36
An ill-advised pass by Rivers equals a Samuels interception. It should be noted that Samuels is a free agent after this season.
4:28
Another Kevin Faulk catch equals another New England first down. I now project Faulk being the highest fantasy guy in this game.
3:51
Brady with a touchdown pass to Jabbar Gaffney means Chris is doing some kind of happy dance in Bolivar. 14-6 Patriots.
2:58
Another nice pass and catch from Rivers to Chambers. If the continue to throw like this, they’ll be in good shape. Too bad Rivers is going to throw a pick on the next play.
2:24
And Rivers throws an interception. Great.
2:18
I hope both coaches begin to figure out that it is too cold and too windy to be throwing the ball downfield all of the time.
2:11
Apparently, Kevin Faulk has stolen LDT’s skills. Additionally, I want New England’s line. Think they’ll trade it to us for Brodie Croyle (since we’re going to spend our first pick on a QB and all)?
1:32
Sproles: “He’s so little!!!”
1:10
HUGE RUN BY SPROLES TO THE 30! But it’s going to be reviewed. Not a good sign for SD since all review under 2 minutes come from the booth.
Darren Sproles is fast. REALLY fast. So glad we didn’t draft him.
:26
If NE not careful, SD could tie the game before halftime. NE doesn’t need that at the moment.
:18
Sproles can’t get out of bounds or the first down, which leave SD in a bad spot. Go for the endzone? First down, but risk not being able to stop the clock? Tough call.
:12
Rivers throws it away (good decision) and SD will settle for the field goal attempt. Kaeding is 0-4 from beyond 39 yards in the playoffs in his career. This one is a 40 yarder.
Kaeding sneaks it in and its 14-9.
One possession game. Halftime. Oh, boy. I can’t handle it. Yes I can. No I can’t. Yes I can. No I can’t. Yes I can….
Scoring Update
Ben
Philip Rivers = 1
Greg Jennings =
Ben Watson =
Stephen Goskowski = 2
Week Total = 3
Overall Total = 134
Andrew
Brandon Jacobs =
Laurence Maroney = 7
Ryan Grant =
Donald Driver =
Chris Chambers = 5
Week Total = 12
Overall Total = 195
Chris
Tom Brady = 5
LDT =
Wes Welker = 2
Sinorice Moss =
Donald Lee =
Mason Crosby =
Chargers DEF/ST = 2
Week Total = 9
Overall Total = 168
Casey
Amani Toomer =
Randy Moss = 1
New England DEF/ST = 5
Week Total = 6
Overall Total = 161
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Year in Review Part II - The Luck Factor
Year in Review Part II – The Luck Factor
There is nothing wrong with luck. As a matter of fact, luck may be the single most important factor in winning a fantasy football league.
When putting a fantasy football team, one is assuming the following things: health, good coaching, good match-ups, key players produce to their projections and that everyone else in the league is unlucky.
Luck is especially key in head-to-head match-ups. Does Tom Brady have a bye? Is Derek Anderson going to have a breakout game? Is Brett Favre going to throw an 82-yard touchdown pass on the first play from scrimmage in overtime? Is LDT going to rush for 30 yards on 20 carries but throw two touchdown passes? Is your team going to score a pitiful 56 points on the week but still win? Are you going to draft a player in the 10th round who becomes one of five players to score 300+ points? How about making a trade that EVERYONE deems one-sided, but you end up being on the losing end of the trade (Marques Colston for Reggie Bush anyone?)?
Again, there is nothing wrong with luck.
To calculate the “Luck Factor” I developed a Joe Posnanski-like equation that factors in the draft, weekly match-ups, points against, trades and injuries among other things. We shall start with the team with the worst luck and move our way up.
(Note: Obviously, there is not accurate way to calculate luck, so please just go with it and have fun reading.)
10) Team Winckler – Brian Winckler
Luck Quotient = -22
Special Factor – Ronnie Brown injury
The injury to Ronnie Brown was the beginning of the end for Brian and his luck. Brian lost three games (most in the league) where he scored 100 or more points and lost. This is headlined by a 171-157 loss to one of the worst teams in the league, The Zou.
Brian did not help himself trading Marion Barber III and Peyton Manning in the middle of the season for Lee Evans, John Kitna, Kevin Jones (who ended up on IR) and Larry Johnson (who got hurt the following week).
Even with the terrible luck, Winckler only needed to win the last match-up of the season to make the playoffs. He ended up losing to the Inoculators 56-49. The 56 points by the Inoculators were the fewest points scored by a team that won a match-up.
Brian, you are an unlucky bastard.
9) Weseloh Wannabees – Jeff Weseloh
Luck Quotient = -10
Special Factor – Adrian Peterson
The good news is Jeff had the best draft in the league. The bad news is he mismanaged and “unlucked” he way to an 8-9 record.
Adrian Peterson is epitome of Jeff’s season. First, he drafted Braylon Edwards (third best wide receiver) and Adrian Peterson (third best running back) in the eighth and ninth rounds. Then he traded them. The rest was history.
Jeff had more points scored against him than any other team in the league and lost the opportunity to keep both Tony Romo AND Adrian Peterson for a cost of a ninth and tenth round pick. Ouch.
8) The Zou - Erik Johnson
Luck Quotient = -10
Special Factor – Willie Parker
When Erik traded Lendale White, Donovan McNabb and Marvin Harrison for Willie Parker, Erik thought he was getting the league’s leading rusher to pair up with Adrian Peterson. Instead, Parker broke his leg and White out produced Parker from the time of the trade to the end of the season. Moves like that killed Erik.
What also killed Erik was his inability to win close match-ups. Erik lost three match-ups by 9 points or less and only Brian, Tony and Jeff had more points scored against him.
Erik’s acquisition of Adrian Peterson jumped him over Jeff.
7) Springfield JQ’s – Tony Allen
Luck Quotient = -7
Special Factor – Points Allowed
Only Jeff had more points scored against him then Tony. Tony also had to suffer through two losses where he scored 100 or more points.
Tony did not draft his own team which may have caused the poor karma.
6) Columbia Outlaws – Joel Schilb
Luck Quotient = -4
Special Factor – Marc Bulger
The turning point in Joel’s season was trading Drew Brees for Marc Bulger. It was all down hill from there. Joel was lucky in that he was fourth in fewest points allowed. The only problem was he could not score any points, causing the largest negative differential between points scored and points allowed.
Joel’s luck was boosted by picking up two wins scoring 75 points or fewer. Only 12 times this season did someone win a match-up scoring 75 points or less.
5) Krunk Smurfs – Jason Wiley
Luck Quotient = -3
Special Factor – 100 point losses
Every time Jason had a big day, the team he was playing seemed to have an even better day. Jason lost twice while scoring more than 100 points. Only he and Tony hold that distinction. Jason also lost two match-ups by five points or fewer.
Jason finished in the middle of the pack in points allowed and points differential. He also was fortunate to trade Willie Parker for Donovan McNabb (a huge need for him) and Lendale White before Parker got hurt.
4) Pollard’s Bonecrusher – Andrew Wessley
Luck Quotient = 12
Special Factor – Drew Brees
Andrew was the huge benefactor of the Drew Brees trade. Also, Andrew finished in top five in fewest points allowed, top three in point differential and made the playoffs despite having one of the worst drafts in terms of starting lineups.
Andrew would have finished higher had he not lost four games by 15 points or less, tied for most in the league. Andrew also was a benefactor of the Brian Winckler collapse.
3) Better… - Casey Allen
Luck Quotient = 17
Special Factor – Close games
Casey was 6-2 in games decided by 15 points or less, including a 4-1 record decided by nine points or less. Casey also won two games despite scoring fewer than 75 points.
Allen was also a benefactor in Randy Moss setting an NFL record for touchdown receptions. That doesn’t happen everyday.
2) Money Hungry Centaurs – Chris Wessley
Luck Quotient = 20
Special Factor – Brian’s failure to show up to the draft
Chris allowed the second fewest points in the league, scored the most points in the league and had the biggest point differential in the league. This was helped by his quarterback, Tom Brady, becoming the first person in the history of football to throw 50 touchdown passes in a season. Brady was aided by the “Eff You TDs” in accomplishing this mark. Additionally, Brady played out the entire season and did not sit in weeks 15-17 as some players did.
Chris did have a week were he lost a game despite scoring 100 points, but he was able to counter it with two wins while scoring under 75 points. Chris also did not deal with any major injuries and traded the one player who did end up on the IR (Cedric Benson) for what would end up being his best receiver (T.J. Houshmandzadeh).
One of the biggest things for Chris was Brian failing to show up to the draft. As a result, Chris was able to guarantee the selection of LDT and lock up the first and third highest scoring players in fantasy.
1) Kansas City Inoculators – Ben Nielsen
Luck Quotient = 25
Special Factor – Points allowed
Ben lucked out more than any other team in the league. Ben scored the third fewest points, but gave up the fewest points by a significant margin.
This was accented at the end of the season. The Inoculators put up 50, 54 and 56 points in weeks 15-17 and still made the playoffs. Nielsen also started the season 0-4 and did not have a player score more than 250 points on his roster – the only playoff team to not have a player of that caliber.
***
It should be noted that the four teams to have positive Luck Quotients were also the four playoff teams. To be in a position to win in fantasy you need luck and luck, this season, was very top heavy.
There is nothing wrong with luck. As a matter of fact, luck may be the single most important factor in winning a fantasy football league.
When putting a fantasy football team, one is assuming the following things: health, good coaching, good match-ups, key players produce to their projections and that everyone else in the league is unlucky.
Luck is especially key in head-to-head match-ups. Does Tom Brady have a bye? Is Derek Anderson going to have a breakout game? Is Brett Favre going to throw an 82-yard touchdown pass on the first play from scrimmage in overtime? Is LDT going to rush for 30 yards on 20 carries but throw two touchdown passes? Is your team going to score a pitiful 56 points on the week but still win? Are you going to draft a player in the 10th round who becomes one of five players to score 300+ points? How about making a trade that EVERYONE deems one-sided, but you end up being on the losing end of the trade (Marques Colston for Reggie Bush anyone?)?
Again, there is nothing wrong with luck.
To calculate the “Luck Factor” I developed a Joe Posnanski-like equation that factors in the draft, weekly match-ups, points against, trades and injuries among other things. We shall start with the team with the worst luck and move our way up.
(Note: Obviously, there is not accurate way to calculate luck, so please just go with it and have fun reading.)
10) Team Winckler – Brian Winckler
Luck Quotient = -22
Special Factor – Ronnie Brown injury
The injury to Ronnie Brown was the beginning of the end for Brian and his luck. Brian lost three games (most in the league) where he scored 100 or more points and lost. This is headlined by a 171-157 loss to one of the worst teams in the league, The Zou.
Brian did not help himself trading Marion Barber III and Peyton Manning in the middle of the season for Lee Evans, John Kitna, Kevin Jones (who ended up on IR) and Larry Johnson (who got hurt the following week).
Even with the terrible luck, Winckler only needed to win the last match-up of the season to make the playoffs. He ended up losing to the Inoculators 56-49. The 56 points by the Inoculators were the fewest points scored by a team that won a match-up.
Brian, you are an unlucky bastard.
9) Weseloh Wannabees – Jeff Weseloh
Luck Quotient = -10
Special Factor – Adrian Peterson
The good news is Jeff had the best draft in the league. The bad news is he mismanaged and “unlucked” he way to an 8-9 record.
Adrian Peterson is epitome of Jeff’s season. First, he drafted Braylon Edwards (third best wide receiver) and Adrian Peterson (third best running back) in the eighth and ninth rounds. Then he traded them. The rest was history.
Jeff had more points scored against him than any other team in the league and lost the opportunity to keep both Tony Romo AND Adrian Peterson for a cost of a ninth and tenth round pick. Ouch.
8) The Zou - Erik Johnson
Luck Quotient = -10
Special Factor – Willie Parker
When Erik traded Lendale White, Donovan McNabb and Marvin Harrison for Willie Parker, Erik thought he was getting the league’s leading rusher to pair up with Adrian Peterson. Instead, Parker broke his leg and White out produced Parker from the time of the trade to the end of the season. Moves like that killed Erik.
What also killed Erik was his inability to win close match-ups. Erik lost three match-ups by 9 points or less and only Brian, Tony and Jeff had more points scored against him.
Erik’s acquisition of Adrian Peterson jumped him over Jeff.
7) Springfield JQ’s – Tony Allen
Luck Quotient = -7
Special Factor – Points Allowed
Only Jeff had more points scored against him then Tony. Tony also had to suffer through two losses where he scored 100 or more points.
Tony did not draft his own team which may have caused the poor karma.
6) Columbia Outlaws – Joel Schilb
Luck Quotient = -4
Special Factor – Marc Bulger
The turning point in Joel’s season was trading Drew Brees for Marc Bulger. It was all down hill from there. Joel was lucky in that he was fourth in fewest points allowed. The only problem was he could not score any points, causing the largest negative differential between points scored and points allowed.
Joel’s luck was boosted by picking up two wins scoring 75 points or fewer. Only 12 times this season did someone win a match-up scoring 75 points or less.
5) Krunk Smurfs – Jason Wiley
Luck Quotient = -3
Special Factor – 100 point losses
Every time Jason had a big day, the team he was playing seemed to have an even better day. Jason lost twice while scoring more than 100 points. Only he and Tony hold that distinction. Jason also lost two match-ups by five points or fewer.
Jason finished in the middle of the pack in points allowed and points differential. He also was fortunate to trade Willie Parker for Donovan McNabb (a huge need for him) and Lendale White before Parker got hurt.
4) Pollard’s Bonecrusher – Andrew Wessley
Luck Quotient = 12
Special Factor – Drew Brees
Andrew was the huge benefactor of the Drew Brees trade. Also, Andrew finished in top five in fewest points allowed, top three in point differential and made the playoffs despite having one of the worst drafts in terms of starting lineups.
Andrew would have finished higher had he not lost four games by 15 points or less, tied for most in the league. Andrew also was a benefactor of the Brian Winckler collapse.
3) Better… - Casey Allen
Luck Quotient = 17
Special Factor – Close games
Casey was 6-2 in games decided by 15 points or less, including a 4-1 record decided by nine points or less. Casey also won two games despite scoring fewer than 75 points.
Allen was also a benefactor in Randy Moss setting an NFL record for touchdown receptions. That doesn’t happen everyday.
2) Money Hungry Centaurs – Chris Wessley
Luck Quotient = 20
Special Factor – Brian’s failure to show up to the draft
Chris allowed the second fewest points in the league, scored the most points in the league and had the biggest point differential in the league. This was helped by his quarterback, Tom Brady, becoming the first person in the history of football to throw 50 touchdown passes in a season. Brady was aided by the “Eff You TDs” in accomplishing this mark. Additionally, Brady played out the entire season and did not sit in weeks 15-17 as some players did.
Chris did have a week were he lost a game despite scoring 100 points, but he was able to counter it with two wins while scoring under 75 points. Chris also did not deal with any major injuries and traded the one player who did end up on the IR (Cedric Benson) for what would end up being his best receiver (T.J. Houshmandzadeh).
One of the biggest things for Chris was Brian failing to show up to the draft. As a result, Chris was able to guarantee the selection of LDT and lock up the first and third highest scoring players in fantasy.
1) Kansas City Inoculators – Ben Nielsen
Luck Quotient = 25
Special Factor – Points allowed
Ben lucked out more than any other team in the league. Ben scored the third fewest points, but gave up the fewest points by a significant margin.
This was accented at the end of the season. The Inoculators put up 50, 54 and 56 points in weeks 15-17 and still made the playoffs. Nielsen also started the season 0-4 and did not have a player score more than 250 points on his roster – the only playoff team to not have a player of that caliber.
***
It should be noted that the four teams to have positive Luck Quotients were also the four playoff teams. To be in a position to win in fantasy you need luck and luck, this season, was very top heavy.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Year in Review Part I - The Draft
With the fantasy season over and the playoffs almost wrapped up, I thought it would be interesting to statistically breakdown each individual team’s draft and then rank them. While doing this, I was surprised to see who truly had successful drafts and how that related to each individual team’s season.
Basically what I did was add up the total points scored by each team as if transactions were not allowed and we were all stuck with what we drafted. It should be noted that I did not adjust the scoring for bye weeks or for match-ups so that the management equation would be eliminated.
So let’s start with the worst statistical draft and work our way up.
Glossery:
Total Roster Points (TRP) = Starters + Bench points
Total Starter Points (TSP) = Total points of best starting lineup
Total Bench Points (TBP) = Total points of players who were not included in the starting lineup
Difference = Point differential between draft starting lineup and actual fantasy points scored during the regular season (Note: It should be remembered that trades and free agent pickups are included in the actual points.)
10) The Zou – Erik Johnson
TRP – 1826
TSP – 1321
TBP – 505
Difference - +273
Preseason Evaluation – Middle Four
I am actually surprised by this. I knew Erik had a poor start, but I thought that was a direct relation to who he was playing that week, but apparently not. Erik was significantly behind the ninth place statistical draft (113 points), had the worst starting lineup and had the eighth ranked bench. Basically, he really had a crappy draft.
Here was Erik’s draft in the order he chose them (Erik had the fifth pick overall):
Player (points scored) * = starter
Larry Johnson (107)
Travis Henry (106)
Thomas Jones (152)*
Larry Fitzgerald (209)*
Lee Evans (123)*
Kellen Winslow (148)*
Matt Leinart (27)
Denver Def/ST (92)*
Brandon Jackson (46)
Calvin Johnson (108)
John Kitna (195)*
Lendale White (170)*
Derrek Mason (130)*
Robbie Gould (102)*
Michael Jenkins (70)
Michael Turner (41)
It should be noted that zero of Erik’s selections are on his final roster.
9) Columbia Outlaws – Joel Schilb
TRP – 1949
TSP – 1434
TBP – 515
Difference – (-177)
Preseason Evaluation – Middle Four
Joel had a rough go of it in his first year of playing fantasy football so I’ll lay off of him this time. I am doing this mostly because I foolishly (yes, foolishly) traded Marques Colston to him for Reggie Bush. That turned out to be a terrible trade for me.
Joel was also riddle with injuries. Three of his top six picks were injured for most of the season. Two players (Jeremy Shockey and Deuce McAllister were placed on IR).
His draft was as follows (Joel had the 10th pick in the draft):
Reggie Bush (125)
Drew Brees (274)*
Deuce McAllister (5)
Edgerine James (187)*
Javon Walker (36)
Jeremy Shockey (78)*
Joey Galloway (155)*
San Diego DEF/ST (193)*
Jerricho Cotchery (140)*
Chester Taylor (147)*
Ben Roethlisberger (248)
Vernon Morency (25)
Drew Bennett (51)
Jeff Wilkins (82)*
Wes Welker (178)*
Chris Henry (25)
The Wes Welker pick was excellent and he got good value in the Big Ben and Chester Taylor picks. Unfortunately for Joel, he didn’t get a 200+ non-quarterback player to go with defense and quarterback. That, poor management and injuries really killed him in the end.
8) Springfield JQ’s – Tony Allen
TRP – 2000
TSP – 1439
TBP – 561
Difference - +57
Preseason Evaluation – Bottom Three
Tony was not present for the draft, thus we will not evaluate it with much detail other than to say he had a better start than Erik and Joel.
7) Better… - Casey Allen
TRP – 1939
TSP – 1516
TBP – 423
Difference - +76
Preseason Evaluation – Middle Four
Casey only made about four or five good selections. But when Casey hit, he hit. The 596 total combine points of Terrell Owens and Randy Moss was complemented by the 251 points season by Carson Palmer. New England’s defense also produced big for Casey.
What killed Casey’s ranking was the he had the worst bench in the draft and the next to last total point roster. Casey’s season was saved by Owens, Moss, Palmer and NE’s defense.
Here was Casey’s draft (Casey had the ninth pick in the draft):
Carson Palmer (251)*
Rudi Johnson (79)*
Terrell Owens (257)*
Cadillac Williams (35)
Randy Moss (339)*
Todd Heap (27)
New England (178)*
Adam Vinatieri (89)*
Julius Jones (79)*
Jacksonville DEF/ST (128)
Dallas Clark (121)*
Joey Porter (99)
Michael Bennett (36)
Trent Green (50)
Reggie Williams (123)*
Dominic Rhodes (48)
6) Team Winckler – Brian Winckler
TRP – 1826
TSP – 1321
TBP – 505
Difference - +71
Preseason Evaluation – Top Three
Brian did not draft his team and will receive the same treatment of Tony.
5) Pollards Bonecrushers – Andrew Wessley
TRP – 2085
TSP – 1409
TBP – 697
Difference - +311
Preseason Evaluation – Middle Four
Andrew did not have a spectacular draft but it wasn’t a terrible draft. He did not end up in the playoffs as a result of his draft, but he did not hurt himself so badly as to make it impossible to end up in the playoffs. Ultimately, his pre-season decision to trade Marc Bulger to the Outlaws for Drew Brees was the difference in the Bonecrushers season.
Andrew could have had a top three rated draft had his first overall pick not busted on him. At the time, Peyton Manning, LDT and Steven Jackson were off the board. Had Andrew selected Joseph Addai over Frank Gore, he may have overtaken the number one seed in the playoffs.
His draft was as follows (Andrew picked fourth overall):
Frank Gore (181)*
Willis McGahee (200)*
Chad Johnson (218)*
Marc Bulger (115)
Donald Driver (119)
Brandon Jacobs (165)*
DeShaun Foster (110)
Chris Chambers (124)
Reggie Brown (145)*
Ben Watson (74)
Vincent Jackson (73)
Jason Witten (167)*
Jake Delhomme (61)*
Neil Rackers (94)*
Carolina DEF/ST (97)*
Jason Campbell (142)*
4) Money Hungry Centaurs – Chris Wessley
TRP – 2260
TSP – 1686
TBP – 574
Difference - +160
Preseason Evaluation – Top Three
Rounds three through sixteen were not all that impressive minus the Lewis and Favre pick. LDT and Brady insane season skew Chris’ overall numbers. At the same time, he did draft LDT and Brady which basically won him the league. So grading Chris’ draft was difficult.
Ultimately, it came down to the overall draft and not just two or three great picks. Things may have been different had Williams and Glenn not gotten hurt. Three Chris Cooley pick was nice, as was the Josh Brown selection.
Evaluating this draft is hurting my head so I’m going to stop here.
Here is Chris’ draft (Chris had the second overall pick):
LDT (324)*
Tom Brady (418)*
Cedric Benson (97)*
Roy Williams (130)*
Anquan Boldin (145)*
Randy McMichael (55)
Baltimore DEF/ST (96)*
Jamal Lewis (240)*
Terry Glenn (0)
Chris Cooley (126)*
Brett Favre (272)*
Ruben Droughns (60)
Devery Henderson (62)
Joe Jurevicius (74)
Josh Brown (110)*
Brodie Croyle (51)
T2) Krunk Smurfs – Jason Wiley
TRP – 2115
TSP – 1542
TBP – 573
Difference - +56
Preseason Evaluation – Bottom Three
Jason had arguably the strongest first five picks by one team on the draft. Jason also picked one of the five players to produce 300 points or more. The Willie Parker injury, lack of depth at wide receiver and top-heaviness of the draft was the reason Jason could not break the second place tie.
Here are Jason’s selections (Jason had the eighth overall selection):
Willie Parker (181)*
Brian Westbrook (308)*
Clinton Portis (230)*
Antonio Gates (166)*
Plaxico Burress (189)*
Vince Young (147)*
Deion Branch (98)*
Eli Manning (184)*
Issac Bruce (98)
Jarrious Norwood (88)
Matt Jones (55)
Miami DEF/ST (51)
Nate Kaeding (101)*
Philadelphia DEF/ST (85)*
Owen Daniels (82)*
Olindo Mare (52)
T2) Kansas City Inoculators – Ben Nielsen
TRP – 2120
TSP – 1487
TBP – 633
Difference - +16
Preseason Evaluation – Top Three
Bad misses in rounds six through eight, the lack of a top 10 quarterback and lack of another 200-plus-point running back or wide receiver prevented Ben from breaking the second place tie. Despite the poor picks, Nielsen was able to produce two top 20 wide receivers a top five defense and kicker and a 100 point wide receiver in rounds 10 through 16. The backend of Ben’s draft was arguably the best in the draft and most certainly in the top three.
Nielsen passed on a chance at selecting Kellen Winslow in round six and Braylon Edwards in round eight. Nielsen would end up with those two players later in the season, but had he selected them in the draft, he would have had the best TRP draft. Had he made those selections he would have had 2408 (top overall) total roster points, a starting lineup of 1682 total points (third best – within 11 points of the top spot) and a bench of 726 (top overall).
Here was Ben’s draft (Ben had the sixth overall selection – and talking in the third person is weird):
Joseph Addai (250)*
Maurice Jones-Drew (177)*
Philip Rivers (178)
Marques Colston (196)*
Laveranues Coles (102)
Ladell Betts (48)
Mushin Muhammad (67)
Mark Clayton (51)
Jay Cutler (208)*
Bernard Berrian (123)
Santonio Holmes (159)*
Greg Jennings (184)*
Vikings DEF/ST (164)*
Daniel Graham (33)*
D.J. Hackett (64)
Stephen Gostkowski (116)*
1) Weseloh Wannabees – Jeff Weseloh
TRP – 2329
TSP – 1693
TBP – 636
Difference - (-186)
Preseason Evaluation – Middle Four
Jeff had the best statistical draft of any team. He finished first in TRP and TSP and finished second in TBP. Jeff only truly missed on two picks: Vernon Davis and Eric Johnson. Davis severely underperformed and Johnson was just a terrible pick. Jeff got unlucky with three key picks (Marvin Harrison, Steven Jackson and Ahman Green) all missing considerable time to injury, but still managed to have the depth and talent to out produce everyone’s draft.
Rounds eight through ten were insane for Jeff and he picked up Braylon Edwards (third best fantasy receiver), Adrian Peterson (third best running back) and Tony Romo (second best quarterback). He drafted a top 10 defense in the 14th round to backup the top five defense he drafted in the seventh round.
Simply, Jeff had the highest producing draft of anyone in the league. But then he started trading people…
Jeff’s draft (Jeff had the third overall pick):
Steven Jackson (171)*
Donovan McNabb (212)
Marvin Harrison (28)
T.J. Houshmandzadeh (195)*
Andre Johnson (154)*
Vernon Davis (68)*
Chicago DEF/ST (171)*
Braylon Edwards (239)*
Adrian Peterson (275)*
Tony Romo (318)*
Ahman Green (46)
Shane Graham (102)*
Chris Brown (82)
Pittsburg DEF/ST (150)
Eric Johnson (42)
James Jones (76)
Statistically
Best Overall Draft (Starters + Bench)
Jeff – 2329
Chris – 2260
Ben – 2120
Jason – 2115
Andrew – 2085
Brian – 2022
Tony – 2000
Joel – 1949
Casey – 1939
Erik – 1826
Average = 2064.5
Best Draft (Starters)
Jeff – 1693
Chris – 1686
Brian – 1571
Jason – 1542
Casey – 1516
Ben – 1487
Tony – 1439
Joel – 1434
Andrew – 1409
Erik – 1321
Average = 1509.8
Best Draft (Depth)
Andrew – 697
Jeff – 636
Ben – 633
Chris – 574
Jason – 573
Tony – 561
Joel – 515
Erik – 505
Brian – 451
Casey - 423
Average = 556.8
Best Difference (Draft Starters to Actual Points)
Andrew – 332
Erik – 273
Chris – 160
Casey – 76
Brian – 71
Tony – 57
Jason – 56
Ben – 16
Joel – (-177)
Jeff – (-186)
Average = 67.8
Top 10 Picks
1) Tony Romo – Round 10
2) Adrian Peterson – Round 9
3) Bret Favre – Round 10
4) Braylon Edwards – Round 8
5) Randy Moss – Round 5
6) Ben Roethlisberger – Round 11
7) Greg Jennings – Round 11
8) Jason Witten – Round 12
9) Jamal Lewis – Round 8
10) Santonio Holmes – Round 10
Best Player By Round
First Round – LDT (Chris)
Second Round – Tom Brady (Chris)
Third Round – Terrell Owens (Casey)
Fourth Round – Larry Fitzgerald (Erik)
Fifth Round – Randy Moss (Casey)
Sixth Round – Marshawn Lynch (Brian)
Seventh Round – Fred Taylor (Tony)
Eighth Round – Jamal Lewis (by one point over Braylon Edwards) (Chris)
Ninth Round – Adrian Peterson (Jeff)
Tenth Round – Tony Romo (Jeff)
Eleventh Round – Brett Favre (Chris)
Twelfth Round – Greg Jennings (Ben)
Thirteenth Round – Brandon Marshall (Tony)
Fourteenth Round – Pittsburgh DEF/ST (Jeff)
Fifteenth Round – Wes Welker (Joel)
Sixteenth Round – Jason Campbell (Andrew)
Ranking First Round Picks
1) LDT (324 – Chris – 2nd Pick)
2) Peyton Manning (283 – Brian – 1st Pick)
3) Carson Palmer (251 – Casey – 9th Pick)
4) Joseph Addai (250 – Ben – 6th Pick)
T5) Willie Parker (181 – Jason – 8th Pick)
T5) Frank Gore (181 – Andrew – 4th Pick)
7) Steven Jackson (171 – Jeff – 3rd Pick)
8) Reggie Bush (125 – Joel – 10th Pick)
9) Shaun Alexander (109 – Tony – 7th Pick)
10) Larry Johnson (107 – Erik – 5th Pick)
Still to come… The Luck Factor plus Evaluating and Ranking the Trades and Free Agent Additions
Basically what I did was add up the total points scored by each team as if transactions were not allowed and we were all stuck with what we drafted. It should be noted that I did not adjust the scoring for bye weeks or for match-ups so that the management equation would be eliminated.
So let’s start with the worst statistical draft and work our way up.
Glossery:
Total Roster Points (TRP) = Starters + Bench points
Total Starter Points (TSP) = Total points of best starting lineup
Total Bench Points (TBP) = Total points of players who were not included in the starting lineup
Difference = Point differential between draft starting lineup and actual fantasy points scored during the regular season (Note: It should be remembered that trades and free agent pickups are included in the actual points.)
10) The Zou – Erik Johnson
TRP – 1826
TSP – 1321
TBP – 505
Difference - +273
Preseason Evaluation – Middle Four
I am actually surprised by this. I knew Erik had a poor start, but I thought that was a direct relation to who he was playing that week, but apparently not. Erik was significantly behind the ninth place statistical draft (113 points), had the worst starting lineup and had the eighth ranked bench. Basically, he really had a crappy draft.
Here was Erik’s draft in the order he chose them (Erik had the fifth pick overall):
Player (points scored) * = starter
Larry Johnson (107)
Travis Henry (106)
Thomas Jones (152)*
Larry Fitzgerald (209)*
Lee Evans (123)*
Kellen Winslow (148)*
Matt Leinart (27)
Denver Def/ST (92)*
Brandon Jackson (46)
Calvin Johnson (108)
John Kitna (195)*
Lendale White (170)*
Derrek Mason (130)*
Robbie Gould (102)*
Michael Jenkins (70)
Michael Turner (41)
It should be noted that zero of Erik’s selections are on his final roster.
9) Columbia Outlaws – Joel Schilb
TRP – 1949
TSP – 1434
TBP – 515
Difference – (-177)
Preseason Evaluation – Middle Four
Joel had a rough go of it in his first year of playing fantasy football so I’ll lay off of him this time. I am doing this mostly because I foolishly (yes, foolishly) traded Marques Colston to him for Reggie Bush. That turned out to be a terrible trade for me.
Joel was also riddle with injuries. Three of his top six picks were injured for most of the season. Two players (Jeremy Shockey and Deuce McAllister were placed on IR).
His draft was as follows (Joel had the 10th pick in the draft):
Reggie Bush (125)
Drew Brees (274)*
Deuce McAllister (5)
Edgerine James (187)*
Javon Walker (36)
Jeremy Shockey (78)*
Joey Galloway (155)*
San Diego DEF/ST (193)*
Jerricho Cotchery (140)*
Chester Taylor (147)*
Ben Roethlisberger (248)
Vernon Morency (25)
Drew Bennett (51)
Jeff Wilkins (82)*
Wes Welker (178)*
Chris Henry (25)
The Wes Welker pick was excellent and he got good value in the Big Ben and Chester Taylor picks. Unfortunately for Joel, he didn’t get a 200+ non-quarterback player to go with defense and quarterback. That, poor management and injuries really killed him in the end.
8) Springfield JQ’s – Tony Allen
TRP – 2000
TSP – 1439
TBP – 561
Difference - +57
Preseason Evaluation – Bottom Three
Tony was not present for the draft, thus we will not evaluate it with much detail other than to say he had a better start than Erik and Joel.
7) Better… - Casey Allen
TRP – 1939
TSP – 1516
TBP – 423
Difference - +76
Preseason Evaluation – Middle Four
Casey only made about four or five good selections. But when Casey hit, he hit. The 596 total combine points of Terrell Owens and Randy Moss was complemented by the 251 points season by Carson Palmer. New England’s defense also produced big for Casey.
What killed Casey’s ranking was the he had the worst bench in the draft and the next to last total point roster. Casey’s season was saved by Owens, Moss, Palmer and NE’s defense.
Here was Casey’s draft (Casey had the ninth pick in the draft):
Carson Palmer (251)*
Rudi Johnson (79)*
Terrell Owens (257)*
Cadillac Williams (35)
Randy Moss (339)*
Todd Heap (27)
New England (178)*
Adam Vinatieri (89)*
Julius Jones (79)*
Jacksonville DEF/ST (128)
Dallas Clark (121)*
Joey Porter (99)
Michael Bennett (36)
Trent Green (50)
Reggie Williams (123)*
Dominic Rhodes (48)
6) Team Winckler – Brian Winckler
TRP – 1826
TSP – 1321
TBP – 505
Difference - +71
Preseason Evaluation – Top Three
Brian did not draft his team and will receive the same treatment of Tony.
5) Pollards Bonecrushers – Andrew Wessley
TRP – 2085
TSP – 1409
TBP – 697
Difference - +311
Preseason Evaluation – Middle Four
Andrew did not have a spectacular draft but it wasn’t a terrible draft. He did not end up in the playoffs as a result of his draft, but he did not hurt himself so badly as to make it impossible to end up in the playoffs. Ultimately, his pre-season decision to trade Marc Bulger to the Outlaws for Drew Brees was the difference in the Bonecrushers season.
Andrew could have had a top three rated draft had his first overall pick not busted on him. At the time, Peyton Manning, LDT and Steven Jackson were off the board. Had Andrew selected Joseph Addai over Frank Gore, he may have overtaken the number one seed in the playoffs.
His draft was as follows (Andrew picked fourth overall):
Frank Gore (181)*
Willis McGahee (200)*
Chad Johnson (218)*
Marc Bulger (115)
Donald Driver (119)
Brandon Jacobs (165)*
DeShaun Foster (110)
Chris Chambers (124)
Reggie Brown (145)*
Ben Watson (74)
Vincent Jackson (73)
Jason Witten (167)*
Jake Delhomme (61)*
Neil Rackers (94)*
Carolina DEF/ST (97)*
Jason Campbell (142)*
4) Money Hungry Centaurs – Chris Wessley
TRP – 2260
TSP – 1686
TBP – 574
Difference - +160
Preseason Evaluation – Top Three
Rounds three through sixteen were not all that impressive minus the Lewis and Favre pick. LDT and Brady insane season skew Chris’ overall numbers. At the same time, he did draft LDT and Brady which basically won him the league. So grading Chris’ draft was difficult.
Ultimately, it came down to the overall draft and not just two or three great picks. Things may have been different had Williams and Glenn not gotten hurt. Three Chris Cooley pick was nice, as was the Josh Brown selection.
Evaluating this draft is hurting my head so I’m going to stop here.
Here is Chris’ draft (Chris had the second overall pick):
LDT (324)*
Tom Brady (418)*
Cedric Benson (97)*
Roy Williams (130)*
Anquan Boldin (145)*
Randy McMichael (55)
Baltimore DEF/ST (96)*
Jamal Lewis (240)*
Terry Glenn (0)
Chris Cooley (126)*
Brett Favre (272)*
Ruben Droughns (60)
Devery Henderson (62)
Joe Jurevicius (74)
Josh Brown (110)*
Brodie Croyle (51)
T2) Krunk Smurfs – Jason Wiley
TRP – 2115
TSP – 1542
TBP – 573
Difference - +56
Preseason Evaluation – Bottom Three
Jason had arguably the strongest first five picks by one team on the draft. Jason also picked one of the five players to produce 300 points or more. The Willie Parker injury, lack of depth at wide receiver and top-heaviness of the draft was the reason Jason could not break the second place tie.
Here are Jason’s selections (Jason had the eighth overall selection):
Willie Parker (181)*
Brian Westbrook (308)*
Clinton Portis (230)*
Antonio Gates (166)*
Plaxico Burress (189)*
Vince Young (147)*
Deion Branch (98)*
Eli Manning (184)*
Issac Bruce (98)
Jarrious Norwood (88)
Matt Jones (55)
Miami DEF/ST (51)
Nate Kaeding (101)*
Philadelphia DEF/ST (85)*
Owen Daniels (82)*
Olindo Mare (52)
T2) Kansas City Inoculators – Ben Nielsen
TRP – 2120
TSP – 1487
TBP – 633
Difference - +16
Preseason Evaluation – Top Three
Bad misses in rounds six through eight, the lack of a top 10 quarterback and lack of another 200-plus-point running back or wide receiver prevented Ben from breaking the second place tie. Despite the poor picks, Nielsen was able to produce two top 20 wide receivers a top five defense and kicker and a 100 point wide receiver in rounds 10 through 16. The backend of Ben’s draft was arguably the best in the draft and most certainly in the top three.
Nielsen passed on a chance at selecting Kellen Winslow in round six and Braylon Edwards in round eight. Nielsen would end up with those two players later in the season, but had he selected them in the draft, he would have had the best TRP draft. Had he made those selections he would have had 2408 (top overall) total roster points, a starting lineup of 1682 total points (third best – within 11 points of the top spot) and a bench of 726 (top overall).
Here was Ben’s draft (Ben had the sixth overall selection – and talking in the third person is weird):
Joseph Addai (250)*
Maurice Jones-Drew (177)*
Philip Rivers (178)
Marques Colston (196)*
Laveranues Coles (102)
Ladell Betts (48)
Mushin Muhammad (67)
Mark Clayton (51)
Jay Cutler (208)*
Bernard Berrian (123)
Santonio Holmes (159)*
Greg Jennings (184)*
Vikings DEF/ST (164)*
Daniel Graham (33)*
D.J. Hackett (64)
Stephen Gostkowski (116)*
1) Weseloh Wannabees – Jeff Weseloh
TRP – 2329
TSP – 1693
TBP – 636
Difference - (-186)
Preseason Evaluation – Middle Four
Jeff had the best statistical draft of any team. He finished first in TRP and TSP and finished second in TBP. Jeff only truly missed on two picks: Vernon Davis and Eric Johnson. Davis severely underperformed and Johnson was just a terrible pick. Jeff got unlucky with three key picks (Marvin Harrison, Steven Jackson and Ahman Green) all missing considerable time to injury, but still managed to have the depth and talent to out produce everyone’s draft.
Rounds eight through ten were insane for Jeff and he picked up Braylon Edwards (third best fantasy receiver), Adrian Peterson (third best running back) and Tony Romo (second best quarterback). He drafted a top 10 defense in the 14th round to backup the top five defense he drafted in the seventh round.
Simply, Jeff had the highest producing draft of anyone in the league. But then he started trading people…
Jeff’s draft (Jeff had the third overall pick):
Steven Jackson (171)*
Donovan McNabb (212)
Marvin Harrison (28)
T.J. Houshmandzadeh (195)*
Andre Johnson (154)*
Vernon Davis (68)*
Chicago DEF/ST (171)*
Braylon Edwards (239)*
Adrian Peterson (275)*
Tony Romo (318)*
Ahman Green (46)
Shane Graham (102)*
Chris Brown (82)
Pittsburg DEF/ST (150)
Eric Johnson (42)
James Jones (76)
Statistically
Best Overall Draft (Starters + Bench)
Jeff – 2329
Chris – 2260
Ben – 2120
Jason – 2115
Andrew – 2085
Brian – 2022
Tony – 2000
Joel – 1949
Casey – 1939
Erik – 1826
Average = 2064.5
Best Draft (Starters)
Jeff – 1693
Chris – 1686
Brian – 1571
Jason – 1542
Casey – 1516
Ben – 1487
Tony – 1439
Joel – 1434
Andrew – 1409
Erik – 1321
Average = 1509.8
Best Draft (Depth)
Andrew – 697
Jeff – 636
Ben – 633
Chris – 574
Jason – 573
Tony – 561
Joel – 515
Erik – 505
Brian – 451
Casey - 423
Average = 556.8
Best Difference (Draft Starters to Actual Points)
Andrew – 332
Erik – 273
Chris – 160
Casey – 76
Brian – 71
Tony – 57
Jason – 56
Ben – 16
Joel – (-177)
Jeff – (-186)
Average = 67.8
Top 10 Picks
1) Tony Romo – Round 10
2) Adrian Peterson – Round 9
3) Bret Favre – Round 10
4) Braylon Edwards – Round 8
5) Randy Moss – Round 5
6) Ben Roethlisberger – Round 11
7) Greg Jennings – Round 11
8) Jason Witten – Round 12
9) Jamal Lewis – Round 8
10) Santonio Holmes – Round 10
Best Player By Round
First Round – LDT (Chris)
Second Round – Tom Brady (Chris)
Third Round – Terrell Owens (Casey)
Fourth Round – Larry Fitzgerald (Erik)
Fifth Round – Randy Moss (Casey)
Sixth Round – Marshawn Lynch (Brian)
Seventh Round – Fred Taylor (Tony)
Eighth Round – Jamal Lewis (by one point over Braylon Edwards) (Chris)
Ninth Round – Adrian Peterson (Jeff)
Tenth Round – Tony Romo (Jeff)
Eleventh Round – Brett Favre (Chris)
Twelfth Round – Greg Jennings (Ben)
Thirteenth Round – Brandon Marshall (Tony)
Fourteenth Round – Pittsburgh DEF/ST (Jeff)
Fifteenth Round – Wes Welker (Joel)
Sixteenth Round – Jason Campbell (Andrew)
Ranking First Round Picks
1) LDT (324 – Chris – 2nd Pick)
2) Peyton Manning (283 – Brian – 1st Pick)
3) Carson Palmer (251 – Casey – 9th Pick)
4) Joseph Addai (250 – Ben – 6th Pick)
T5) Willie Parker (181 – Jason – 8th Pick)
T5) Frank Gore (181 – Andrew – 4th Pick)
7) Steven Jackson (171 – Jeff – 3rd Pick)
8) Reggie Bush (125 – Joel – 10th Pick)
9) Shaun Alexander (109 – Tony – 7th Pick)
10) Larry Johnson (107 – Erik – 5th Pick)
Still to come… The Luck Factor plus Evaluating and Ranking the Trades and Free Agent Additions
Monday, January 14, 2008
The Luck of the Eli (and Chris)
When we did the playoff draft and Chris took Eli Manning I immediately responded with, “You’re not going to play him.” Now, in “Ben Language” this means “you are going to regret that decision.” Why? Well lets take a look at the situation.
First, Chris already had Tom Brady and Brett Favre on his roster as playoff keepers. All he was looking for was a guy to play on week one of the playoffs and put up some decent numbers.
Second, Matt Hasselbeck, David Garrard, Ben Roethlisberger, Vince Young, Jeff Garcia and Todd Collins were all sill on the board at the time of the Eli pick.
From the list of available quarterbacks, I could understand not taking Vince Young and Todd Collins because they were both on the road against teams that matched-up well against them for their first ever playoff game experience. I do not include Garrard on this list, despite it being his first playoff game, because two weeks earlier he beat the Steelers at Pittsburg and Jacksonville did not need him to win the game (being as they would rely on Jones-Drew, Taylor and their defense to carry the load).
So basically one is left with Matt Hasselbeck (Superbowl quarterback), Ben Roethlisberger (Superbowl winning quarterback), Jeff Garcia (2-1 in his career in the Wildcard round) and Eli Manning (um… he played in the playoffs a couple of times).
Here are Eli’s stats heading into his third career playoff game:
2 games (both losses), 26-45 (57.7%), 2 TDs, 4 Ints, 274 yards
It should also be noted that Jeremy Shockey was out with a broken leg, the running game was struggling, his left tackle was playing hurt, Plaxico Burress was starting to feel the effects of not practicing all season and was still dealing with his right ankle injury and the Tampa Bay defense ranked second in the NFL in yards-per-game and third in the NFL in points allowed. Oh, and he was on the road.
Here are the career playoff stats of the other available QB’s (all of whom were playing at home):
Hasselbeck: 7 games (3-4 record), 150-260, 9 TDs, 6 INTs, 1788 yards
Roethlisberger: 6 games (5-1 record), 89-147 (60.5%), 10 TDs, 8 INTs, 1210 yards
Garcia: 5 games (2-3 record), 103-178 (57.9 %), 6 TDs, 5 INTs, 1150 yards
And he chose Eli?
I think this Eli pick is the epitome of Chris’ season. Chris hit the perfect storm and only truly made one “smart” deal.
First, when Chris picked up Houshmandzadeh, I do not believe he thought T.J. would end up being the sixteenth best RB/WR in fantasy (which he was) ahead of guys like Willie Parker, Frank Gore, Torry Holt, Steven Jackson, Roy Williams, Reggie Bush, Maurice Jones-Drew and Chad Johnson among others. He did not think this. He obviously felt T.J. would be better than Benson, which at the time was a stretch. T.J. was the benefactor of a terrible, injury ridden season for Johnson. Carson Palmer had to throw the ball to somebody.
Second, no one, not even Chris, new Tom Brady was going to throw 50 touchdowns. No one. Why? Because no one in the history of FOOTBALL had ever done that. Tim Tebow was the first to score 50+ touchdowns in a season in college and even HE didn’t throw 50 touchdowns. It should also be remembered that Randy Moss did not catch a single pass in the pre-season. This led to a seven hundred hour debate on ESPN radio about whether or not Darth Vader (aka Billy the Camera Boy) had made the wrong decision to trade a fourth round pick for him. Everyone felt they had the potential to be good. No one was thinking 50 touchdowns good. Neither was Chris.
Third, the only reason he got LDT was because Brian did not show up for the draft. Had he shown up, he would have taken John Kitna, forcing Chris into a tight bind of whether he should take Peyton or LDT.
Fourth, Jamal Lewis.
Fifth, if Anquan Bolden doesn’t catch a stupid touchdown in the Monday night game the first week of the season, Chris would have had the fourth seed, not the one seed, and may not have made the smartest trade he made all year which was…
Trading Ben Roethisberger, Anquan Bolden and Devery Henderson for Brett Favre and Wes Welker.
It is for these reasons that I will now start referring to this fantasy season as the Eli Manning season, because it was the season where nothing made sense.
Need more proof? Here’s Eli’s 2008 postseason statistics:
E. Manning 2008 Playoffs = 2 games (both wins), 32-45 (71.1%), 4 TDs, 0 Ints, 348 yards
Brett Favre’s Bill Clinton Approved Fairy Tale
I have come to the realization that Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers will win the Superbowl. Guaranteed. It is set up way too perfectly for them.
First, Green Bay will beat the Giants because Eli will suddenly remember that his name is not “Peyton.” The Patriots will then beat the Chargers because Philip Rivers will suddenly realize that his coach is Norv Turner and his name is not Tom Brady.
This sets up the Green Bay/New England Superbowl. Good versus Evil. Favre versus Brady. Favre versus Perfection.
The game will end with Favre throwing a 82-yard touchdown pass to Greg Jennings on the first play from scrimmage in overtime. You just wait. It will happen.
The Kansas City Chiefs First Round Draft Pick
I have changed my position on who the Chiefs should draft with their first pick (note: it will change again later).
The Chiefs have to draft a quarterback with their first pick. At worst, they will have the fifth pick overall and there is a legitimate scenario that sees zero QB’s come off the board in the first four picks. For example:
Miami: Glenn Dorsey
St. Louis: Jake Long
Atlanta: Darren McFadden
Oakland: Chris Long
Does this mean this will happen? No, but it is possible. And if the Chiefs have the fourth pick, Atlanta will be behind them, which means none of the top three teams will have any QB needs.
Why do I think the Chiefs should draft QB? Look at the playoff teams and where they got their starting QB’s as compared to their left tackles.
QB’s
San Diego: Philip Rivers, 1st Round, 4th pick, draft day trade – Pro Bowl
Tennessee: Vince Young, 1st Round, 3rd pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
Pittsburg: Ben Roethlisberger, 1st Round, 11th pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
Jacksonville: David Garrard, 4th Round, 108th pick, Draft
Indianapolis: Peyton Manning, 1st Round, 1st pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
New England: Tom Brady, 6th Round, 199th pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
New York Giants: Eli Manning, 1st Round, 1st pick, draft day trade
Tampa Bay: Jeff Garcia, undrafted, Free Agent – Pro Bowl
Seattle: Matt Hasselbeck, 6th Round, 187th pick, trade – Pro Bowl
Washington: Jason Campbell, 1st Round, 30th pick, Draft
Dallas: Tony Romo, undrafted, undrafted free agent – Pro Bowl
Green Bay: Brett Favre, 2nd Round,33rd pick, trade – Pro Bowl
Left Tackles
San Diego: Marcus McNeal, 2nd Round, 50st pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
Tennessee: Michael Roos, 2nd Round, 41st pick, Draft
Jacksonville: Khalif Barnes, 2nd Round, 52nd pick, Draft
Pittsburg: Marvel Smith, 2nd Round, 38th pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
Indianapolis: Tony Ugoh, 2nd Round, 42nd pick, Trade
New England: Matt Light, 2nd Round, 48th pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
New York Giants: David Diehl, 5th Round, 160th pick, Draft
Tampa Bay: Donald Penn, undrafted, free agent
Seattle: Walter Jones, 1st Round, 6th pick, draft – Pro Bowl
Washington: Chris Samuels. 1st Round, 3rd pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
Dallas: Flozell Adams, 2nd Round, 38th pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
Green Bay: Chad Clifton, 2nd Round, 44th pick, Draft
Teams that win and succeed get their quarterbacks in the first round. It should be noted that six of the playoff quarterbacks were drafted in the first round while only two of the playoff left tackles received the same honor. This is not to say that a high round pick should not be spent on a left tackle seeing as only two of the 12 playoff left tackles were obtained after the second round compared to the five quarterbacks who share that distinction. But to find those quarterbacks is difficult.
Consider that three of the four AFC West projected starting quarterbacks for 2008 are first round picks. AFC South has two, AFC North has three and AFC East has zero but has two high second round picks that will start next season.
To me, this would be and excellent first three rounds of picks:
1st Round – Andre Woodson Jr. – QB - Kentucky
2nd Round – Aqib Talib – CB - Kansas
3rd Round – Gosder Cherilus – OT – Boston College
But wait, it could be better.
The Chiefs have come out and said they will not trade Tony Gonzalez and Larry Johnson for salary cap purposes. But both you and I know that the two people who would most welcome a trade to a contending team are Tony Gonzalez and Larry Johnson. And we also know that each of them signed cap-friendly contracts because that is what Carl Peterson does. Yes, the numbers look staggering, but you and I both know Peterson left himself some loop holes.
Given the staggering amount of cap space the Chiefs have, their desire to add many young players and not sign too many free agents, the Chiefs could handle a one-time, one-year big cap hit by trading Tony Gonzalez or Larry Johnson. And knowing Tony, I’m sure he’d restructure his contract to end up on a contending team.
So here is my plan. Keep LJ because he has zero trade value. Second, trade Tony Gonzalez to Seattle for their first round pick this year (and more if you can). Green Bay is also an option. These two teams would work for two different reasons. Seattle would work because their window of opportunity is closing very fast. They NEED a tight end badly. Tony Gonzalez would complete that team. Green Bay is already built and has an opening window. They could afford to trade a pick for Tony to help separate themselves from Dallas, teach the young receivers and add a veteran target for Aaron Rogers if Favre decides to retire after this season.
This trade would give the Chiefs three picks in the first 35 of the draft. If this is so, the Chiefs could then practically rebuild their offense in one round and in one draft while still improving on defense. The draft would look as such:
(Note: the Chiefs have a fifth round pick from Miami for Trent Green and two unspecified picks for trading Michael Bennett and Lawrence Tynes. I will assume Tynes is a seventh round pick and Bennett is a fifth round pick.)
1st Round, 4th or 5th pick – Andre Woodson Jr., QB, Kentucky: Strong arm, accurate, semi-mobile and played well with few weapons in the SEC. He also produced back to back excellent seasons which allows him to stand out from the rest of the prospects.
1st Round, 23rd, 28th or 31st pick – Samuel Baker, OT, USC: Because he’s a tackle and he went to USC
2nd Round – Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas: Loves to tackle, has speed, makes big plays and will always have help up top in Cover 2 system
3rd Round – Roy Schuening, OG, Oregon State: A big, quick guard who could start immediately if needed
4th Round – John Sullivan, C, Notre Dame: Good size and I’m assuming smart since he went to ND
5th Round – Victor Harris, CB, Virginia Tech: Physical corner who could thrive in the Cover 2
5th Round – Allen Patrick, RB, Oklahoma: Fast, physical runner who could also play special teams
5th Round – Anthony Alridge, WR, Houston: Small, but runs the 40 in 4.34 seconds and can play special teams
6th Round – Craig Stevens, TE, California: Great size and is excellent in run and pass blocking. He is the opposite of Michael Allen in that he can’t catch.
7th Round – Art Carmody, K, Louisvile: Doesn’t have the strongest leg in the draft but he doesn’t miss 30-yard field goals. In other words, he’s not Justin Medlock.
7th Round – David Roach, S, TCU: Good speed and size at safety who could play special teams
I’d take this.
Who’s Left?
Ben’s Roster
Stephen Gostkowski
Greg Jennings
Ben Watson
Antonio Gates
Philip Rivers
Derrick Ward
Chris’ Roster
Tom Brady
LaDanian Tomlinson
Wes Welker
Mason Crosby
Brett Favre
Sinorce Moss
San Diego D/ST
Eli Manning
Donald Lee
Andrew’s Roster
Brandon Jacobs
Donald Driver
Plaxico Burress
Lawrence Maroney
Ryan Grant
Chris Chambers
Casey’s Roster
Randy Moss
New England D/ST
Dante Stallworth
James Jones
Amani Toomer
Ben
Philip Rivers = 20
Joseph Addai =10
Marion Barber III = 23
Greg Jennings = 19
D.J. Hackett = 1
Patrick Crayton = 2
Ben Watson = 13
Stephen Goskowski = 5
Indianapolis D = -2
Week Total = 91
Overall Total = 131
Casey
Peyton Manning = 34
Maurice Jones-Drew = 5
Julious Jones = 0
Donte Stallworth = 6
Terrell Owens = 10
Randy Moss = 1
Dallas Clark = 15
New England D = 5
Week Total = 76
Overall Total = 155
Andrew
Tony Romo = 11
Ryan Grant = 44
Brandon Jacobs =11
Laurence Maroney = 27
Plaxico Burress = 0
Bobby Engram = 12
Jason Witten = 8
Nick Folk = 4
Dallas D = 3
Week Total = 120
Overall Total = 183
Chris
Tom Brady = 22
LDT = 4
Fred Taylor = 4
Anthony Gonzalez = 15
Reggie Wayne = 13
Wes Welker = 12
Donald Lee = 1
Mason Crosby = 6
San Diego = 5
Week Total = 81
Overall Total = 159
When we did the playoff draft and Chris took Eli Manning I immediately responded with, “You’re not going to play him.” Now, in “Ben Language” this means “you are going to regret that decision.” Why? Well lets take a look at the situation.
First, Chris already had Tom Brady and Brett Favre on his roster as playoff keepers. All he was looking for was a guy to play on week one of the playoffs and put up some decent numbers.
Second, Matt Hasselbeck, David Garrard, Ben Roethlisberger, Vince Young, Jeff Garcia and Todd Collins were all sill on the board at the time of the Eli pick.
From the list of available quarterbacks, I could understand not taking Vince Young and Todd Collins because they were both on the road against teams that matched-up well against them for their first ever playoff game experience. I do not include Garrard on this list, despite it being his first playoff game, because two weeks earlier he beat the Steelers at Pittsburg and Jacksonville did not need him to win the game (being as they would rely on Jones-Drew, Taylor and their defense to carry the load).
So basically one is left with Matt Hasselbeck (Superbowl quarterback), Ben Roethlisberger (Superbowl winning quarterback), Jeff Garcia (2-1 in his career in the Wildcard round) and Eli Manning (um… he played in the playoffs a couple of times).
Here are Eli’s stats heading into his third career playoff game:
2 games (both losses), 26-45 (57.7%), 2 TDs, 4 Ints, 274 yards
It should also be noted that Jeremy Shockey was out with a broken leg, the running game was struggling, his left tackle was playing hurt, Plaxico Burress was starting to feel the effects of not practicing all season and was still dealing with his right ankle injury and the Tampa Bay defense ranked second in the NFL in yards-per-game and third in the NFL in points allowed. Oh, and he was on the road.
Here are the career playoff stats of the other available QB’s (all of whom were playing at home):
Hasselbeck: 7 games (3-4 record), 150-260, 9 TDs, 6 INTs, 1788 yards
Roethlisberger: 6 games (5-1 record), 89-147 (60.5%), 10 TDs, 8 INTs, 1210 yards
Garcia: 5 games (2-3 record), 103-178 (57.9 %), 6 TDs, 5 INTs, 1150 yards
And he chose Eli?
I think this Eli pick is the epitome of Chris’ season. Chris hit the perfect storm and only truly made one “smart” deal.
First, when Chris picked up Houshmandzadeh, I do not believe he thought T.J. would end up being the sixteenth best RB/WR in fantasy (which he was) ahead of guys like Willie Parker, Frank Gore, Torry Holt, Steven Jackson, Roy Williams, Reggie Bush, Maurice Jones-Drew and Chad Johnson among others. He did not think this. He obviously felt T.J. would be better than Benson, which at the time was a stretch. T.J. was the benefactor of a terrible, injury ridden season for Johnson. Carson Palmer had to throw the ball to somebody.
Second, no one, not even Chris, new Tom Brady was going to throw 50 touchdowns. No one. Why? Because no one in the history of FOOTBALL had ever done that. Tim Tebow was the first to score 50+ touchdowns in a season in college and even HE didn’t throw 50 touchdowns. It should also be remembered that Randy Moss did not catch a single pass in the pre-season. This led to a seven hundred hour debate on ESPN radio about whether or not Darth Vader (aka Billy the Camera Boy) had made the wrong decision to trade a fourth round pick for him. Everyone felt they had the potential to be good. No one was thinking 50 touchdowns good. Neither was Chris.
Third, the only reason he got LDT was because Brian did not show up for the draft. Had he shown up, he would have taken John Kitna, forcing Chris into a tight bind of whether he should take Peyton or LDT.
Fourth, Jamal Lewis.
Fifth, if Anquan Bolden doesn’t catch a stupid touchdown in the Monday night game the first week of the season, Chris would have had the fourth seed, not the one seed, and may not have made the smartest trade he made all year which was…
Trading Ben Roethisberger, Anquan Bolden and Devery Henderson for Brett Favre and Wes Welker.
It is for these reasons that I will now start referring to this fantasy season as the Eli Manning season, because it was the season where nothing made sense.
Need more proof? Here’s Eli’s 2008 postseason statistics:
E. Manning 2008 Playoffs = 2 games (both wins), 32-45 (71.1%), 4 TDs, 0 Ints, 348 yards
Brett Favre’s Bill Clinton Approved Fairy Tale
I have come to the realization that Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers will win the Superbowl. Guaranteed. It is set up way too perfectly for them.
First, Green Bay will beat the Giants because Eli will suddenly remember that his name is not “Peyton.” The Patriots will then beat the Chargers because Philip Rivers will suddenly realize that his coach is Norv Turner and his name is not Tom Brady.
This sets up the Green Bay/New England Superbowl. Good versus Evil. Favre versus Brady. Favre versus Perfection.
The game will end with Favre throwing a 82-yard touchdown pass to Greg Jennings on the first play from scrimmage in overtime. You just wait. It will happen.
The Kansas City Chiefs First Round Draft Pick
I have changed my position on who the Chiefs should draft with their first pick (note: it will change again later).
The Chiefs have to draft a quarterback with their first pick. At worst, they will have the fifth pick overall and there is a legitimate scenario that sees zero QB’s come off the board in the first four picks. For example:
Miami: Glenn Dorsey
St. Louis: Jake Long
Atlanta: Darren McFadden
Oakland: Chris Long
Does this mean this will happen? No, but it is possible. And if the Chiefs have the fourth pick, Atlanta will be behind them, which means none of the top three teams will have any QB needs.
Why do I think the Chiefs should draft QB? Look at the playoff teams and where they got their starting QB’s as compared to their left tackles.
QB’s
San Diego: Philip Rivers, 1st Round, 4th pick, draft day trade – Pro Bowl
Tennessee: Vince Young, 1st Round, 3rd pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
Pittsburg: Ben Roethlisberger, 1st Round, 11th pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
Jacksonville: David Garrard, 4th Round, 108th pick, Draft
Indianapolis: Peyton Manning, 1st Round, 1st pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
New England: Tom Brady, 6th Round, 199th pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
New York Giants: Eli Manning, 1st Round, 1st pick, draft day trade
Tampa Bay: Jeff Garcia, undrafted, Free Agent – Pro Bowl
Seattle: Matt Hasselbeck, 6th Round, 187th pick, trade – Pro Bowl
Washington: Jason Campbell, 1st Round, 30th pick, Draft
Dallas: Tony Romo, undrafted, undrafted free agent – Pro Bowl
Green Bay: Brett Favre, 2nd Round,33rd pick, trade – Pro Bowl
Left Tackles
San Diego: Marcus McNeal, 2nd Round, 50st pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
Tennessee: Michael Roos, 2nd Round, 41st pick, Draft
Jacksonville: Khalif Barnes, 2nd Round, 52nd pick, Draft
Pittsburg: Marvel Smith, 2nd Round, 38th pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
Indianapolis: Tony Ugoh, 2nd Round, 42nd pick, Trade
New England: Matt Light, 2nd Round, 48th pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
New York Giants: David Diehl, 5th Round, 160th pick, Draft
Tampa Bay: Donald Penn, undrafted, free agent
Seattle: Walter Jones, 1st Round, 6th pick, draft – Pro Bowl
Washington: Chris Samuels. 1st Round, 3rd pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
Dallas: Flozell Adams, 2nd Round, 38th pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
Green Bay: Chad Clifton, 2nd Round, 44th pick, Draft
Teams that win and succeed get their quarterbacks in the first round. It should be noted that six of the playoff quarterbacks were drafted in the first round while only two of the playoff left tackles received the same honor. This is not to say that a high round pick should not be spent on a left tackle seeing as only two of the 12 playoff left tackles were obtained after the second round compared to the five quarterbacks who share that distinction. But to find those quarterbacks is difficult.
Consider that three of the four AFC West projected starting quarterbacks for 2008 are first round picks. AFC South has two, AFC North has three and AFC East has zero but has two high second round picks that will start next season.
To me, this would be and excellent first three rounds of picks:
1st Round – Andre Woodson Jr. – QB - Kentucky
2nd Round – Aqib Talib – CB - Kansas
3rd Round – Gosder Cherilus – OT – Boston College
But wait, it could be better.
The Chiefs have come out and said they will not trade Tony Gonzalez and Larry Johnson for salary cap purposes. But both you and I know that the two people who would most welcome a trade to a contending team are Tony Gonzalez and Larry Johnson. And we also know that each of them signed cap-friendly contracts because that is what Carl Peterson does. Yes, the numbers look staggering, but you and I both know Peterson left himself some loop holes.
Given the staggering amount of cap space the Chiefs have, their desire to add many young players and not sign too many free agents, the Chiefs could handle a one-time, one-year big cap hit by trading Tony Gonzalez or Larry Johnson. And knowing Tony, I’m sure he’d restructure his contract to end up on a contending team.
So here is my plan. Keep LJ because he has zero trade value. Second, trade Tony Gonzalez to Seattle for their first round pick this year (and more if you can). Green Bay is also an option. These two teams would work for two different reasons. Seattle would work because their window of opportunity is closing very fast. They NEED a tight end badly. Tony Gonzalez would complete that team. Green Bay is already built and has an opening window. They could afford to trade a pick for Tony to help separate themselves from Dallas, teach the young receivers and add a veteran target for Aaron Rogers if Favre decides to retire after this season.
This trade would give the Chiefs three picks in the first 35 of the draft. If this is so, the Chiefs could then practically rebuild their offense in one round and in one draft while still improving on defense. The draft would look as such:
(Note: the Chiefs have a fifth round pick from Miami for Trent Green and two unspecified picks for trading Michael Bennett and Lawrence Tynes. I will assume Tynes is a seventh round pick and Bennett is a fifth round pick.)
1st Round, 4th or 5th pick – Andre Woodson Jr., QB, Kentucky: Strong arm, accurate, semi-mobile and played well with few weapons in the SEC. He also produced back to back excellent seasons which allows him to stand out from the rest of the prospects.
1st Round, 23rd, 28th or 31st pick – Samuel Baker, OT, USC: Because he’s a tackle and he went to USC
2nd Round – Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas: Loves to tackle, has speed, makes big plays and will always have help up top in Cover 2 system
3rd Round – Roy Schuening, OG, Oregon State: A big, quick guard who could start immediately if needed
4th Round – John Sullivan, C, Notre Dame: Good size and I’m assuming smart since he went to ND
5th Round – Victor Harris, CB, Virginia Tech: Physical corner who could thrive in the Cover 2
5th Round – Allen Patrick, RB, Oklahoma: Fast, physical runner who could also play special teams
5th Round – Anthony Alridge, WR, Houston: Small, but runs the 40 in 4.34 seconds and can play special teams
6th Round – Craig Stevens, TE, California: Great size and is excellent in run and pass blocking. He is the opposite of Michael Allen in that he can’t catch.
7th Round – Art Carmody, K, Louisvile: Doesn’t have the strongest leg in the draft but he doesn’t miss 30-yard field goals. In other words, he’s not Justin Medlock.
7th Round – David Roach, S, TCU: Good speed and size at safety who could play special teams
I’d take this.
Who’s Left?
Ben’s Roster
Stephen Gostkowski
Greg Jennings
Ben Watson
Antonio Gates
Philip Rivers
Derrick Ward
Chris’ Roster
Tom Brady
LaDanian Tomlinson
Wes Welker
Mason Crosby
Brett Favre
Sinorce Moss
San Diego D/ST
Eli Manning
Donald Lee
Andrew’s Roster
Brandon Jacobs
Donald Driver
Plaxico Burress
Lawrence Maroney
Ryan Grant
Chris Chambers
Casey’s Roster
Randy Moss
New England D/ST
Dante Stallworth
James Jones
Amani Toomer
Ben
Philip Rivers = 20
Joseph Addai =10
Marion Barber III = 23
Greg Jennings = 19
D.J. Hackett = 1
Patrick Crayton = 2
Ben Watson = 13
Stephen Goskowski = 5
Indianapolis D = -2
Week Total = 91
Overall Total = 131
Casey
Peyton Manning = 34
Maurice Jones-Drew = 5
Julious Jones = 0
Donte Stallworth = 6
Terrell Owens = 10
Randy Moss = 1
Dallas Clark = 15
New England D = 5
Week Total = 76
Overall Total = 155
Andrew
Tony Romo = 11
Ryan Grant = 44
Brandon Jacobs =11
Laurence Maroney = 27
Plaxico Burress = 0
Bobby Engram = 12
Jason Witten = 8
Nick Folk = 4
Dallas D = 3
Week Total = 120
Overall Total = 183
Chris
Tom Brady = 22
LDT = 4
Fred Taylor = 4
Anthony Gonzalez = 15
Reggie Wayne = 13
Wes Welker = 12
Donald Lee = 1
Mason Crosby = 6
San Diego = 5
Week Total = 81
Overall Total = 159
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