The Luck of the Eli (and Chris)

When we did the playoff draft and Chris took Eli Manning I immediately responded with, “You’re not going to play him.” Now, in “Ben Language” this means “you are going to regret that decision.” Why? Well lets take a look at the situation.

First, Chris already had Tom Brady and Brett Favre on his roster as playoff keepers. All he was looking for was a guy to play on week one of the playoffs and put up some decent numbers.

Second, Matt Hasselbeck, David Garrard, Ben Roethlisberger, Vince Young, Jeff Garcia and Todd Collins were all sill on the board at the time of the Eli pick.

From the list of available quarterbacks, I could understand not taking Vince Young and Todd Collins because they were both on the road against teams that matched-up well against them for their first ever playoff game experience. I do not include Garrard on this list, despite it being his first playoff game, because two weeks earlier he beat the Steelers at Pittsburg and Jacksonville did not need him to win the game (being as they would rely on Jones-Drew, Taylor and their defense to carry the load).

So basically one is left with Matt Hasselbeck (Superbowl quarterback), Ben Roethlisberger (Superbowl winning quarterback), Jeff Garcia (2-1 in his career in the Wildcard round) and Eli Manning (um… he played in the playoffs a couple of times).

Here are Eli’s stats heading into his third career playoff game:
2 games (both losses), 26-45 (57.7%), 2 TDs, 4 Ints, 274 yards

It should also be noted that Jeremy Shockey was out with a broken leg, the running game was struggling, his left tackle was playing hurt, Plaxico Burress was starting to feel the effects of not practicing all season and was still dealing with his right ankle injury and the Tampa Bay defense ranked second in the NFL in yards-per-game and third in the NFL in points allowed. Oh, and he was on the road.

Here are the career playoff stats of the other available QB’s (all of whom were playing at home):
Hasselbeck: 7 games (3-4 record), 150-260, 9 TDs, 6 INTs, 1788 yards
Roethlisberger: 6 games (5-1 record), 89-147 (60.5%), 10 TDs, 8 INTs, 1210 yards
Garcia: 5 games (2-3 record), 103-178 (57.9 %), 6 TDs, 5 INTs, 1150 yards

And he chose Eli?

I think this Eli pick is the epitome of Chris’ season. Chris hit the perfect storm and only truly made one “smart” deal.

First, when Chris picked up Houshmandzadeh, I do not believe he thought T.J. would end up being the sixteenth best RB/WR in fantasy (which he was) ahead of guys like Willie Parker, Frank Gore, Torry Holt, Steven Jackson, Roy Williams, Reggie Bush, Maurice Jones-Drew and Chad Johnson among others. He did not think this. He obviously felt T.J. would be better than Benson, which at the time was a stretch. T.J. was the benefactor of a terrible, injury ridden season for Johnson. Carson Palmer had to throw the ball to somebody.

Second, no one, not even Chris, new Tom Brady was going to throw 50 touchdowns. No one. Why? Because no one in the history of FOOTBALL had ever done that. Tim Tebow was the first to score 50+ touchdowns in a season in college and even HE didn’t throw 50 touchdowns. It should also be remembered that Randy Moss did not catch a single pass in the pre-season. This led to a seven hundred hour debate on ESPN radio about whether or not Darth Vader (aka Billy the Camera Boy) had made the wrong decision to trade a fourth round pick for him. Everyone felt they had the potential to be good. No one was thinking 50 touchdowns good. Neither was Chris.

Third, the only reason he got LDT was because Brian did not show up for the draft. Had he shown up, he would have taken John Kitna, forcing Chris into a tight bind of whether he should take Peyton or LDT.

Fourth, Jamal Lewis.

Fifth, if Anquan Bolden doesn’t catch a stupid touchdown in the Monday night game the first week of the season, Chris would have had the fourth seed, not the one seed, and may not have made the smartest trade he made all year which was…

Trading Ben Roethisberger, Anquan Bolden and Devery Henderson for Brett Favre and Wes Welker.

It is for these reasons that I will now start referring to this fantasy season as the Eli Manning season, because it was the season where nothing made sense.

Need more proof? Here’s Eli’s 2008 postseason statistics:
E. Manning 2008 Playoffs = 2 games (both wins), 32-45 (71.1%), 4 TDs, 0 Ints, 348 yards


Brett Favre’s Bill Clinton Approved Fairy Tale

I have come to the realization that Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers will win the Superbowl. Guaranteed. It is set up way too perfectly for them.

First, Green Bay will beat the Giants because Eli will suddenly remember that his name is not “Peyton.” The Patriots will then beat the Chargers because Philip Rivers will suddenly realize that his coach is Norv Turner and his name is not Tom Brady.

This sets up the Green Bay/New England Superbowl. Good versus Evil. Favre versus Brady. Favre versus Perfection.

The game will end with Favre throwing a 82-yard touchdown pass to Greg Jennings on the first play from scrimmage in overtime. You just wait. It will happen.

The Kansas City Chiefs First Round Draft Pick

I have changed my position on who the Chiefs should draft with their first pick (note: it will change again later).

The Chiefs have to draft a quarterback with their first pick. At worst, they will have the fifth pick overall and there is a legitimate scenario that sees zero QB’s come off the board in the first four picks. For example:
Miami: Glenn Dorsey
St. Louis: Jake Long
Atlanta: Darren McFadden
Oakland: Chris Long

Does this mean this will happen? No, but it is possible. And if the Chiefs have the fourth pick, Atlanta will be behind them, which means none of the top three teams will have any QB needs.

Why do I think the Chiefs should draft QB? Look at the playoff teams and where they got their starting QB’s as compared to their left tackles.

QB’s
San Diego: Philip Rivers, 1st Round, 4th pick, draft day trade – Pro Bowl
Tennessee: Vince Young, 1st Round, 3rd pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
Pittsburg: Ben Roethlisberger, 1st Round, 11th pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
Jacksonville: David Garrard, 4th Round, 108th pick, Draft
Indianapolis: Peyton Manning, 1st Round, 1st pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
New England: Tom Brady, 6th Round, 199th pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
New York Giants: Eli Manning, 1st Round, 1st pick, draft day trade
Tampa Bay: Jeff Garcia, undrafted, Free Agent – Pro Bowl
Seattle: Matt Hasselbeck, 6th Round, 187th pick, trade – Pro Bowl
Washington: Jason Campbell, 1st Round, 30th pick, Draft
Dallas: Tony Romo, undrafted, undrafted free agent – Pro Bowl
Green Bay: Brett Favre, 2nd Round,33rd pick, trade – Pro Bowl

Left Tackles
San Diego: Marcus McNeal, 2nd Round, 50st pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
Tennessee: Michael Roos, 2nd Round, 41st pick, Draft
Jacksonville: Khalif Barnes, 2nd Round, 52nd pick, Draft
Pittsburg: Marvel Smith, 2nd Round, 38th pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
Indianapolis: Tony Ugoh, 2nd Round, 42nd pick, Trade
New England: Matt Light, 2nd Round, 48th pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
New York Giants: David Diehl, 5th Round, 160th pick, Draft
Tampa Bay: Donald Penn, undrafted, free agent
Seattle: Walter Jones, 1st Round, 6th pick, draft – Pro Bowl
Washington: Chris Samuels. 1st Round, 3rd pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
Dallas: Flozell Adams, 2nd Round, 38th pick, Draft – Pro Bowl
Green Bay: Chad Clifton, 2nd Round, 44th pick, Draft

Teams that win and succeed get their quarterbacks in the first round. It should be noted that six of the playoff quarterbacks were drafted in the first round while only two of the playoff left tackles received the same honor. This is not to say that a high round pick should not be spent on a left tackle seeing as only two of the 12 playoff left tackles were obtained after the second round compared to the five quarterbacks who share that distinction. But to find those quarterbacks is difficult.

Consider that three of the four AFC West projected starting quarterbacks for 2008 are first round picks. AFC South has two, AFC North has three and AFC East has zero but has two high second round picks that will start next season.

To me, this would be and excellent first three rounds of picks:
1st Round – Andre Woodson Jr. – QB - Kentucky
2nd Round – Aqib Talib – CB - Kansas
3rd Round – Gosder Cherilus – OT – Boston College

But wait, it could be better.

The Chiefs have come out and said they will not trade Tony Gonzalez and Larry Johnson for salary cap purposes. But both you and I know that the two people who would most welcome a trade to a contending team are Tony Gonzalez and Larry Johnson. And we also know that each of them signed cap-friendly contracts because that is what Carl Peterson does. Yes, the numbers look staggering, but you and I both know Peterson left himself some loop holes.

Given the staggering amount of cap space the Chiefs have, their desire to add many young players and not sign too many free agents, the Chiefs could handle a one-time, one-year big cap hit by trading Tony Gonzalez or Larry Johnson. And knowing Tony, I’m sure he’d restructure his contract to end up on a contending team.

So here is my plan. Keep LJ because he has zero trade value. Second, trade Tony Gonzalez to Seattle for their first round pick this year (and more if you can). Green Bay is also an option. These two teams would work for two different reasons. Seattle would work because their window of opportunity is closing very fast. They NEED a tight end badly. Tony Gonzalez would complete that team. Green Bay is already built and has an opening window. They could afford to trade a pick for Tony to help separate themselves from Dallas, teach the young receivers and add a veteran target for Aaron Rogers if Favre decides to retire after this season.

This trade would give the Chiefs three picks in the first 35 of the draft. If this is so, the Chiefs could then practically rebuild their offense in one round and in one draft while still improving on defense. The draft would look as such:

(Note: the Chiefs have a fifth round pick from Miami for Trent Green and two unspecified picks for trading Michael Bennett and Lawrence Tynes. I will assume Tynes is a seventh round pick and Bennett is a fifth round pick.)

1st Round, 4th or 5th pick – Andre Woodson Jr., QB, Kentucky: Strong arm, accurate, semi-mobile and played well with few weapons in the SEC. He also produced back to back excellent seasons which allows him to stand out from the rest of the prospects.
1st Round, 23rd, 28th or 31st pick – Samuel Baker, OT, USC: Because he’s a tackle and he went to USC
2nd Round – Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas: Loves to tackle, has speed, makes big plays and will always have help up top in Cover 2 system
3rd Round – Roy Schuening, OG, Oregon State: A big, quick guard who could start immediately if needed
4th Round – John Sullivan, C, Notre Dame: Good size and I’m assuming smart since he went to ND
5th Round – Victor Harris, CB, Virginia Tech: Physical corner who could thrive in the Cover 2
5th Round – Allen Patrick, RB, Oklahoma: Fast, physical runner who could also play special teams
5th Round – Anthony Alridge, WR, Houston: Small, but runs the 40 in 4.34 seconds and can play special teams
6th Round – Craig Stevens, TE, California: Great size and is excellent in run and pass blocking. He is the opposite of Michael Allen in that he can’t catch.
7th Round – Art Carmody, K, Louisvile: Doesn’t have the strongest leg in the draft but he doesn’t miss 30-yard field goals. In other words, he’s not Justin Medlock.
7th Round – David Roach, S, TCU: Good speed and size at safety who could play special teams

I’d take this.

Who’s Left?

Ben’s Roster
Stephen Gostkowski
Greg Jennings
Ben Watson
Antonio Gates
Philip Rivers
Derrick Ward

Chris’ Roster
Tom Brady
LaDanian Tomlinson
Wes Welker
Mason Crosby
Brett Favre
Sinorce Moss
San Diego D/ST
Eli Manning
Donald Lee

Andrew’s Roster
Brandon Jacobs
Donald Driver
Plaxico Burress
Lawrence Maroney
Ryan Grant
Chris Chambers

Casey’s Roster
Randy Moss
New England D/ST
Dante Stallworth
James Jones
Amani Toomer

Ben
Philip Rivers = 20
Joseph Addai =10
Marion Barber III = 23
Greg Jennings = 19
D.J. Hackett = 1
Patrick Crayton = 2
Ben Watson = 13
Stephen Goskowski = 5
Indianapolis D = -2

Week Total = 91
Overall Total = 131

Casey
Peyton Manning = 34
Maurice Jones-Drew = 5
Julious Jones = 0
Donte Stallworth = 6
Terrell Owens = 10
Randy Moss = 1
Dallas Clark = 15
New England D = 5

Week Total = 76
Overall Total = 155

Andrew
Tony Romo = 11
Ryan Grant = 44
Brandon Jacobs =11
Laurence Maroney = 27
Plaxico Burress = 0
Bobby Engram = 12
Jason Witten = 8
Nick Folk = 4
Dallas D = 3

Week Total = 120
Overall Total = 183

Chris
Tom Brady = 22
LDT = 4
Fred Taylor = 4
Anthony Gonzalez = 15
Reggie Wayne = 13
Wes Welker = 12
Donald Lee = 1
Mason Crosby = 6
San Diego = 5

Week Total = 81
Overall Total = 159