Year in Review Part II - The Luck Factor

Year in Review Part II – The Luck Factor

There is nothing wrong with luck. As a matter of fact, luck may be the single most important factor in winning a fantasy football league.

When putting a fantasy football team, one is assuming the following things: health, good coaching, good match-ups, key players produce to their projections and that everyone else in the league is unlucky.

Luck is especially key in head-to-head match-ups. Does Tom Brady have a bye? Is Derek Anderson going to have a breakout game? Is Brett Favre going to throw an 82-yard touchdown pass on the first play from scrimmage in overtime? Is LDT going to rush for 30 yards on 20 carries but throw two touchdown passes? Is your team going to score a pitiful 56 points on the week but still win? Are you going to draft a player in the 10th round who becomes one of five players to score 300+ points? How about making a trade that EVERYONE deems one-sided, but you end up being on the losing end of the trade (Marques Colston for Reggie Bush anyone?)?

Again, there is nothing wrong with luck.

To calculate the “Luck Factor” I developed a Joe Posnanski-like equation that factors in the draft, weekly match-ups, points against, trades and injuries among other things. We shall start with the team with the worst luck and move our way up.

(Note: Obviously, there is not accurate way to calculate luck, so please just go with it and have fun reading.)

10) Team Winckler – Brian Winckler
Luck Quotient = -22
Special Factor – Ronnie Brown injury

The injury to Ronnie Brown was the beginning of the end for Brian and his luck. Brian lost three games (most in the league) where he scored 100 or more points and lost. This is headlined by a 171-157 loss to one of the worst teams in the league, The Zou.

Brian did not help himself trading Marion Barber III and Peyton Manning in the middle of the season for Lee Evans, John Kitna, Kevin Jones (who ended up on IR) and Larry Johnson (who got hurt the following week).

Even with the terrible luck, Winckler only needed to win the last match-up of the season to make the playoffs. He ended up losing to the Inoculators 56-49. The 56 points by the Inoculators were the fewest points scored by a team that won a match-up.

Brian, you are an unlucky bastard.

9) Weseloh Wannabees – Jeff Weseloh
Luck Quotient = -10
Special Factor – Adrian Peterson

The good news is Jeff had the best draft in the league. The bad news is he mismanaged and “unlucked” he way to an 8-9 record.

Adrian Peterson is epitome of Jeff’s season. First, he drafted Braylon Edwards (third best wide receiver) and Adrian Peterson (third best running back) in the eighth and ninth rounds. Then he traded them. The rest was history.

Jeff had more points scored against him than any other team in the league and lost the opportunity to keep both Tony Romo AND Adrian Peterson for a cost of a ninth and tenth round pick. Ouch.

8) The Zou - Erik Johnson
Luck Quotient = -10
Special Factor – Willie Parker

When Erik traded Lendale White, Donovan McNabb and Marvin Harrison for Willie Parker, Erik thought he was getting the league’s leading rusher to pair up with Adrian Peterson. Instead, Parker broke his leg and White out produced Parker from the time of the trade to the end of the season. Moves like that killed Erik.

What also killed Erik was his inability to win close match-ups. Erik lost three match-ups by 9 points or less and only Brian, Tony and Jeff had more points scored against him.

Erik’s acquisition of Adrian Peterson jumped him over Jeff.

7) Springfield JQ’s – Tony Allen
Luck Quotient = -7
Special Factor – Points Allowed

Only Jeff had more points scored against him then Tony. Tony also had to suffer through two losses where he scored 100 or more points.

Tony did not draft his own team which may have caused the poor karma.

6) Columbia Outlaws – Joel Schilb
Luck Quotient = -4
Special Factor – Marc Bulger

The turning point in Joel’s season was trading Drew Brees for Marc Bulger. It was all down hill from there. Joel was lucky in that he was fourth in fewest points allowed. The only problem was he could not score any points, causing the largest negative differential between points scored and points allowed.

Joel’s luck was boosted by picking up two wins scoring 75 points or fewer. Only 12 times this season did someone win a match-up scoring 75 points or less.

5) Krunk Smurfs – Jason Wiley
Luck Quotient = -3
Special Factor – 100 point losses

Every time Jason had a big day, the team he was playing seemed to have an even better day. Jason lost twice while scoring more than 100 points. Only he and Tony hold that distinction. Jason also lost two match-ups by five points or fewer.

Jason finished in the middle of the pack in points allowed and points differential. He also was fortunate to trade Willie Parker for Donovan McNabb (a huge need for him) and Lendale White before Parker got hurt.

4) Pollard’s Bonecrusher – Andrew Wessley
Luck Quotient = 12
Special Factor – Drew Brees

Andrew was the huge benefactor of the Drew Brees trade. Also, Andrew finished in top five in fewest points allowed, top three in point differential and made the playoffs despite having one of the worst drafts in terms of starting lineups.

Andrew would have finished higher had he not lost four games by 15 points or less, tied for most in the league. Andrew also was a benefactor of the Brian Winckler collapse.

3) Better… - Casey Allen
Luck Quotient = 17
Special Factor – Close games

Casey was 6-2 in games decided by 15 points or less, including a 4-1 record decided by nine points or less. Casey also won two games despite scoring fewer than 75 points.

Allen was also a benefactor in Randy Moss setting an NFL record for touchdown receptions. That doesn’t happen everyday.

2) Money Hungry Centaurs – Chris Wessley
Luck Quotient = 20
Special Factor – Brian’s failure to show up to the draft

Chris allowed the second fewest points in the league, scored the most points in the league and had the biggest point differential in the league. This was helped by his quarterback, Tom Brady, becoming the first person in the history of football to throw 50 touchdown passes in a season. Brady was aided by the “Eff You TDs” in accomplishing this mark. Additionally, Brady played out the entire season and did not sit in weeks 15-17 as some players did.

Chris did have a week were he lost a game despite scoring 100 points, but he was able to counter it with two wins while scoring under 75 points. Chris also did not deal with any major injuries and traded the one player who did end up on the IR (Cedric Benson) for what would end up being his best receiver (T.J. Houshmandzadeh).

One of the biggest things for Chris was Brian failing to show up to the draft. As a result, Chris was able to guarantee the selection of LDT and lock up the first and third highest scoring players in fantasy.

1) Kansas City Inoculators – Ben Nielsen
Luck Quotient = 25
Special Factor – Points allowed

Ben lucked out more than any other team in the league. Ben scored the third fewest points, but gave up the fewest points by a significant margin.

This was accented at the end of the season. The Inoculators put up 50, 54 and 56 points in weeks 15-17 and still made the playoffs. Nielsen also started the season 0-4 and did not have a player score more than 250 points on his roster – the only playoff team to not have a player of that caliber.

***

It should be noted that the four teams to have positive Luck Quotients were also the four playoff teams. To be in a position to win in fantasy you need luck and luck, this season, was very top heavy.