Year in Review Part I - The Draft

With the fantasy season over and the playoffs almost wrapped up, I thought it would be interesting to statistically breakdown each individual team’s draft and then rank them. While doing this, I was surprised to see who truly had successful drafts and how that related to each individual team’s season.

Basically what I did was add up the total points scored by each team as if transactions were not allowed and we were all stuck with what we drafted. It should be noted that I did not adjust the scoring for bye weeks or for match-ups so that the management equation would be eliminated.

So let’s start with the worst statistical draft and work our way up.

Glossery:
Total Roster Points (TRP) = Starters + Bench points
Total Starter Points (TSP) = Total points of best starting lineup
Total Bench Points (TBP) = Total points of players who were not included in the starting lineup
Difference = Point differential between draft starting lineup and actual fantasy points scored during the regular season (Note: It should be remembered that trades and free agent pickups are included in the actual points.)

10) The Zou – Erik Johnson
TRP – 1826
TSP – 1321
TBP – 505
Difference - +273
Preseason Evaluation – Middle Four

I am actually surprised by this. I knew Erik had a poor start, but I thought that was a direct relation to who he was playing that week, but apparently not. Erik was significantly behind the ninth place statistical draft (113 points), had the worst starting lineup and had the eighth ranked bench. Basically, he really had a crappy draft.

Here was Erik’s draft in the order he chose them (Erik had the fifth pick overall):
Player (points scored) * = starter
Larry Johnson (107)
Travis Henry (106)
Thomas Jones (152)*
Larry Fitzgerald (209)*
Lee Evans (123)*
Kellen Winslow (148)*
Matt Leinart (27)
Denver Def/ST (92)*
Brandon Jackson (46)
Calvin Johnson (108)
John Kitna (195)*
Lendale White (170)*
Derrek Mason (130)*
Robbie Gould (102)*
Michael Jenkins (70)
Michael Turner (41)

It should be noted that zero of Erik’s selections are on his final roster.

9) Columbia Outlaws – Joel Schilb
TRP – 1949
TSP – 1434
TBP – 515
Difference – (-177)
Preseason Evaluation – Middle Four

Joel had a rough go of it in his first year of playing fantasy football so I’ll lay off of him this time. I am doing this mostly because I foolishly (yes, foolishly) traded Marques Colston to him for Reggie Bush. That turned out to be a terrible trade for me.

Joel was also riddle with injuries. Three of his top six picks were injured for most of the season. Two players (Jeremy Shockey and Deuce McAllister were placed on IR).

His draft was as follows (Joel had the 10th pick in the draft):
Reggie Bush (125)
Drew Brees (274)*
Deuce McAllister (5)
Edgerine James (187)*
Javon Walker (36)
Jeremy Shockey (78)*
Joey Galloway (155)*
San Diego DEF/ST (193)*
Jerricho Cotchery (140)*
Chester Taylor (147)*
Ben Roethlisberger (248)
Vernon Morency (25)
Drew Bennett (51)
Jeff Wilkins (82)*
Wes Welker (178)*
Chris Henry (25)

The Wes Welker pick was excellent and he got good value in the Big Ben and Chester Taylor picks. Unfortunately for Joel, he didn’t get a 200+ non-quarterback player to go with defense and quarterback. That, poor management and injuries really killed him in the end.

8) Springfield JQ’s – Tony Allen
TRP – 2000
TSP – 1439
TBP – 561
Difference - +57
Preseason Evaluation – Bottom Three

Tony was not present for the draft, thus we will not evaluate it with much detail other than to say he had a better start than Erik and Joel.

7) Better… - Casey Allen
TRP – 1939
TSP – 1516
TBP – 423
Difference - +76
Preseason Evaluation – Middle Four

Casey only made about four or five good selections. But when Casey hit, he hit. The 596 total combine points of Terrell Owens and Randy Moss was complemented by the 251 points season by Carson Palmer. New England’s defense also produced big for Casey.

What killed Casey’s ranking was the he had the worst bench in the draft and the next to last total point roster. Casey’s season was saved by Owens, Moss, Palmer and NE’s defense.

Here was Casey’s draft (Casey had the ninth pick in the draft):
Carson Palmer (251)*
Rudi Johnson (79)*
Terrell Owens (257)*
Cadillac Williams (35)
Randy Moss (339)*
Todd Heap (27)
New England (178)*
Adam Vinatieri (89)*
Julius Jones (79)*
Jacksonville DEF/ST (128)
Dallas Clark (121)*
Joey Porter (99)
Michael Bennett (36)
Trent Green (50)
Reggie Williams (123)*
Dominic Rhodes (48)

6) Team Winckler – Brian Winckler
TRP – 1826
TSP – 1321
TBP – 505
Difference - +71
Preseason Evaluation – Top Three

Brian did not draft his team and will receive the same treatment of Tony.

5) Pollards Bonecrushers – Andrew Wessley
TRP – 2085
TSP – 1409
TBP – 697
Difference - +311
Preseason Evaluation – Middle Four

Andrew did not have a spectacular draft but it wasn’t a terrible draft. He did not end up in the playoffs as a result of his draft, but he did not hurt himself so badly as to make it impossible to end up in the playoffs. Ultimately, his pre-season decision to trade Marc Bulger to the Outlaws for Drew Brees was the difference in the Bonecrushers season.

Andrew could have had a top three rated draft had his first overall pick not busted on him. At the time, Peyton Manning, LDT and Steven Jackson were off the board. Had Andrew selected Joseph Addai over Frank Gore, he may have overtaken the number one seed in the playoffs.

His draft was as follows (Andrew picked fourth overall):
Frank Gore (181)*
Willis McGahee (200)*
Chad Johnson (218)*
Marc Bulger (115)
Donald Driver (119)
Brandon Jacobs (165)*
DeShaun Foster (110)
Chris Chambers (124)
Reggie Brown (145)*
Ben Watson (74)
Vincent Jackson (73)
Jason Witten (167)*
Jake Delhomme (61)*
Neil Rackers (94)*
Carolina DEF/ST (97)*
Jason Campbell (142)*

4) Money Hungry Centaurs – Chris Wessley
TRP – 2260
TSP – 1686
TBP – 574
Difference - +160
Preseason Evaluation – Top Three

Rounds three through sixteen were not all that impressive minus the Lewis and Favre pick. LDT and Brady insane season skew Chris’ overall numbers. At the same time, he did draft LDT and Brady which basically won him the league. So grading Chris’ draft was difficult.

Ultimately, it came down to the overall draft and not just two or three great picks. Things may have been different had Williams and Glenn not gotten hurt. Three Chris Cooley pick was nice, as was the Josh Brown selection.

Evaluating this draft is hurting my head so I’m going to stop here.

Here is Chris’ draft (Chris had the second overall pick):
LDT (324)*
Tom Brady (418)*
Cedric Benson (97)*
Roy Williams (130)*
Anquan Boldin (145)*
Randy McMichael (55)
Baltimore DEF/ST (96)*
Jamal Lewis (240)*
Terry Glenn (0)
Chris Cooley (126)*
Brett Favre (272)*
Ruben Droughns (60)
Devery Henderson (62)
Joe Jurevicius (74)
Josh Brown (110)*
Brodie Croyle (51)

T2) Krunk Smurfs – Jason Wiley
TRP – 2115
TSP – 1542
TBP – 573
Difference - +56
Preseason Evaluation – Bottom Three

Jason had arguably the strongest first five picks by one team on the draft. Jason also picked one of the five players to produce 300 points or more. The Willie Parker injury, lack of depth at wide receiver and top-heaviness of the draft was the reason Jason could not break the second place tie.

Here are Jason’s selections (Jason had the eighth overall selection):
Willie Parker (181)*
Brian Westbrook (308)*
Clinton Portis (230)*
Antonio Gates (166)*
Plaxico Burress (189)*
Vince Young (147)*
Deion Branch (98)*
Eli Manning (184)*
Issac Bruce (98)
Jarrious Norwood (88)
Matt Jones (55)
Miami DEF/ST (51)
Nate Kaeding (101)*
Philadelphia DEF/ST (85)*
Owen Daniels (82)*
Olindo Mare (52)

T2) Kansas City Inoculators – Ben Nielsen
TRP – 2120
TSP – 1487
TBP – 633
Difference - +16
Preseason Evaluation – Top Three

Bad misses in rounds six through eight, the lack of a top 10 quarterback and lack of another 200-plus-point running back or wide receiver prevented Ben from breaking the second place tie. Despite the poor picks, Nielsen was able to produce two top 20 wide receivers a top five defense and kicker and a 100 point wide receiver in rounds 10 through 16. The backend of Ben’s draft was arguably the best in the draft and most certainly in the top three.

Nielsen passed on a chance at selecting Kellen Winslow in round six and Braylon Edwards in round eight. Nielsen would end up with those two players later in the season, but had he selected them in the draft, he would have had the best TRP draft. Had he made those selections he would have had 2408 (top overall) total roster points, a starting lineup of 1682 total points (third best – within 11 points of the top spot) and a bench of 726 (top overall).

Here was Ben’s draft (Ben had the sixth overall selection – and talking in the third person is weird):
Joseph Addai (250)*
Maurice Jones-Drew (177)*
Philip Rivers (178)
Marques Colston (196)*
Laveranues Coles (102)
Ladell Betts (48)
Mushin Muhammad (67)
Mark Clayton (51)
Jay Cutler (208)*
Bernard Berrian (123)
Santonio Holmes (159)*
Greg Jennings (184)*
Vikings DEF/ST (164)*
Daniel Graham (33)*
D.J. Hackett (64)
Stephen Gostkowski (116)*

1) Weseloh Wannabees – Jeff Weseloh
TRP – 2329
TSP – 1693
TBP – 636
Difference - (-186)
Preseason Evaluation – Middle Four

Jeff had the best statistical draft of any team. He finished first in TRP and TSP and finished second in TBP. Jeff only truly missed on two picks: Vernon Davis and Eric Johnson. Davis severely underperformed and Johnson was just a terrible pick. Jeff got unlucky with three key picks (Marvin Harrison, Steven Jackson and Ahman Green) all missing considerable time to injury, but still managed to have the depth and talent to out produce everyone’s draft.

Rounds eight through ten were insane for Jeff and he picked up Braylon Edwards (third best fantasy receiver), Adrian Peterson (third best running back) and Tony Romo (second best quarterback). He drafted a top 10 defense in the 14th round to backup the top five defense he drafted in the seventh round.

Simply, Jeff had the highest producing draft of anyone in the league. But then he started trading people…

Jeff’s draft (Jeff had the third overall pick):
Steven Jackson (171)*
Donovan McNabb (212)
Marvin Harrison (28)
T.J. Houshmandzadeh (195)*
Andre Johnson (154)*
Vernon Davis (68)*
Chicago DEF/ST (171)*
Braylon Edwards (239)*
Adrian Peterson (275)*
Tony Romo (318)*
Ahman Green (46)
Shane Graham (102)*
Chris Brown (82)
Pittsburg DEF/ST (150)
Eric Johnson (42)
James Jones (76)


Statistically
Best Overall Draft (Starters + Bench)
Jeff – 2329
Chris – 2260
Ben – 2120
Jason – 2115
Andrew – 2085
Brian – 2022
Tony – 2000
Joel – 1949
Casey – 1939
Erik – 1826
Average = 2064.5

Best Draft (Starters)
Jeff – 1693
Chris – 1686
Brian – 1571
Jason – 1542
Casey – 1516
Ben – 1487
Tony – 1439
Joel – 1434
Andrew – 1409
Erik – 1321
Average = 1509.8

Best Draft (Depth)
Andrew – 697
Jeff – 636
Ben – 633
Chris – 574
Jason – 573
Tony – 561
Joel – 515
Erik – 505
Brian – 451
Casey - 423
Average = 556.8

Best Difference (Draft Starters to Actual Points)
Andrew – 332
Erik – 273
Chris – 160
Casey – 76
Brian – 71
Tony – 57
Jason – 56
Ben – 16
Joel – (-177)
Jeff – (-186)
Average = 67.8

Top 10 Picks
1) Tony Romo – Round 10
2) Adrian Peterson – Round 9
3) Bret Favre – Round 10
4) Braylon Edwards – Round 8
5) Randy Moss – Round 5
6) Ben Roethlisberger – Round 11
7) Greg Jennings – Round 11
8) Jason Witten – Round 12
9) Jamal Lewis – Round 8
10) Santonio Holmes – Round 10

Best Player By Round
First Round – LDT (Chris)
Second Round – Tom Brady (Chris)
Third Round – Terrell Owens (Casey)
Fourth Round – Larry Fitzgerald (Erik)
Fifth Round – Randy Moss (Casey)
Sixth Round – Marshawn Lynch (Brian)
Seventh Round – Fred Taylor (Tony)
Eighth Round – Jamal Lewis (by one point over Braylon Edwards) (Chris)
Ninth Round – Adrian Peterson (Jeff)
Tenth Round – Tony Romo (Jeff)
Eleventh Round – Brett Favre (Chris)
Twelfth Round – Greg Jennings (Ben)
Thirteenth Round – Brandon Marshall (Tony)
Fourteenth Round – Pittsburgh DEF/ST (Jeff)
Fifteenth Round – Wes Welker (Joel)
Sixteenth Round – Jason Campbell (Andrew)

Ranking First Round Picks
1) LDT (324 – Chris – 2nd Pick)
2) Peyton Manning (283 – Brian – 1st Pick)
3) Carson Palmer (251 – Casey – 9th Pick)
4) Joseph Addai (250 – Ben – 6th Pick)
T5) Willie Parker (181 – Jason – 8th Pick)
T5) Frank Gore (181 – Andrew – 4th Pick)
7) Steven Jackson (171 – Jeff – 3rd Pick)
8) Reggie Bush (125 – Joel – 10th Pick)
9) Shaun Alexander (109 – Tony – 7th Pick)
10) Larry Johnson (107 – Erik – 5th Pick)


Still to come… The Luck Factor plus Evaluating and Ranking the Trades and Free Agent Additions