Season Review Part I: The Draft

Note: This post looks Posnanski-like, but it is actually fairly short. Most of it is everyone’s draft and lists that take six seconds to read, so don’t freak out.

With the fantasy season over, I thought it would be interesting to breakdown each individual team’s draft and then rank them. While doing this, I was surprised to see who had successful drafts and how that related to each individual team’s season.

What I did was add up the total points scored by each team as if transactions were not allowed and we were all stuck with what we drafted. It should be noted that I did not adjust the scoring for bye weeks or for matchups so that the management equation would be eliminated.

So let’s start with the worst statistical draft and work our way up.

Glossery:
Total Roster Points (TRP) = Starters + Bench points
Total Roster Points Minus Keepers (TRPK) = Total roster points minus keeper points
Total Starter Points (TSP) = Total points of best starting lineup
Total Bench Points (TBP) = Total points of players who were not included in the starting lineup
Total Keeper Points (TKP) = Total points from selected keepers
Actual Fantasy Points (AFP) = Fantasy points scored in the real regular season
Difference = Point differential between draft starting lineup and actual fantasy points scored during the regular season (Note: It should be remembered that trades and free agent pickups are included in the actual points.)

8) Chris Wessley (7th Overall Pick)
TRP – 1815
TRPK – 1589
TSP – 1472
TBP – 343
TKP - 226
AFP – 1670
Difference – (+198)

Preseason Prediction: Misses the playoffs and will win the consolation bracket.

What I Said in September: “Chris showed up to the draft, but he really didn’t need to until round three as he kept LDT and Tom Brady. But after looking at his draft, it appears that he really wasn’t all there until round 10 when he took Jeremy Shockey. He then took another two rounds off before taking DeShawn Jackson and then promptly left the draft…Michael Turner has no business going in the third round and I think will prove to be a bust and was the biggest reach of the draft. Chad Ocho Cinco is going to have a down season this year, which I think will prove to be his last in Cincinnati…I’m also not sold on Tom Brady as a dominate fantasy player this year…”

Thoughts: I was surprised Chris came away with the worst draft. Granted, I knew he would get hard by the Brady injury, but it didn’t really occur to me how bad his draft was. Seven of his draftees scored less than 85 fantasy points. He had far too many “busts” than “booms”, but, as will be discussed in Part II of the season review, I think this proves more positive things for Chris than negative.

I still think the Turner pick was a bad one. Granted, I was wrong about his production (VERY wrong), but I think Turner could have been had later in the draft by at least two rounds. Turner would be a far greater keeper prospect in the 5th or 6th round than in the third. With that said, Chris did land a great player in Turner – a player I completely whiffed on – and will serve a solid keeper prospect for him next season.

Bold = Keeper
(#) = Consecutive times player has been kept
Round – Player – Points Scored
1st – Ladanian Tomlinson (1) – 223*
2nd – Tom Brady (1) – 3
3rd – Michael Turner – 318*
4th – Chad Johnson – 71
5th – Antonio Gates – 109*
6th – Anquan Boldin – 181*
7th – Fred Taylor – 63
8th – Dwayne Bowe – 146*
9th – Seattle D/ST – 84*
10th – Selvin Young – 29
Jeremy Shockey – 39
11th – Ronnie Brown – 182*
12th – Marc Bulger – 122*
13th – DeShawn Jackson – 120
14th – Donte Stallworth – 18
15th – Mason Crosby – 107*
16th – Pick Traded

7) Joel Schilb (1st overall pick)
TRP – 1997
TRPK – 1666
TSP – 1424
TBP – 573
TKP – 331
AFP – 1395
Difference – (-29)

Preseason Prediction: 4th Seed in Championship Playoffs

What I Said in September: “Joel was kind enough to not show up to the draft. How gay of him. And being the bastard he is, he used the “Brian Winckler Method” of not showing up to the draft while having the number one overall pick and coming away with a solid team. I. Hate. You. Really, I do.”

Thoughts: A healthy Tom Brady sends Joel to the worst draft in the league. But Brady wasn’t healthy and Joel ranks comfortably ahead of Chris. Rounds seven through fourteen literally produced nothing for Joel. Welker suffered from lack of redzone targets, otherwise he would have been a top half keeper, the Baltimore pick was a good one in round sixteen, but otherwise Joel pretty much skipped out of the draft after the Thomas Jones pick. Serves him right for not showing up to the draft.

Bold = Keeper
(#) = Consecutive times player has been kept
Round – Player – Points Scored
1st – Joseph Addai – 115
2nd – Maurice Jones-Drew – 219*
3rd – Marques Colston – 120*
4th – Thomas Jones – 253*
5th – Brett Favre – 180
6th – Jerricho Cotchery – 120*
7th – Chris Cooley – 84*
8th – Andre Hall – 10
9th – Justin Fargas – 90
10th – Traded Pick
11th – Ben Roethlisberger (1) – 183*
12th – Jerious Norwood – 108
13th – Benjamin Watson – 27
14th – Ahmad Bradshaw – 43
15th – Wes Welker (1) – 148*
16th – Neil Rackers – 100*
Baltimore D/ST – 197*

6) Jason Willey (2nd overall pick)
TRP – 2000
TRPK - 1540
TSP – 1542
TBP – 458
TKP – 460
AFP – 1660
Difference – (+118)

Preseason Prediction: Will finish second in the consolation playoffs.

What I Said in September: “While Terrell Owens is the more likely wide receiver between Randy Moss and himself to repeat last seasons success, and Brian Westbrook will be the best running back in fantasy this season (mark my words Chris, because I know you already are), Jason simply lacks any depth. Clinton Portis is a liability in the backfield and Derek Anderson is setup for a sophomore slump (so that he can be released and signed by the Chiefs this offseason). Torry Holt is nine billion years old (I think) and Jason has almost no one of value to bring off the bench.”

Thoughts: Jason had two good picks, DeAngelo Williams in the 12th round and Tony Gonzalez in the 6th, and had two excellent keepers. Aside from four guys, Jason had nothing. Aside from Owens 200-yard game, he was bust as a first round pick. Rounds four through 16 produced three starters (Gonzalez, Williams and Santana Moss). Over 57-percent of his season’s fantasy points came from his three backs and tight end. While I have not calculated it yet, I assume Jason is going to rank very high in the Luck Factor. With that said, kudos to him for getting Williams in the 12th round.

Bold = Keeper
(#) = Consecutive times player has been kept
Round – Player – Points Scored
1st – Terrell Owens – 180*
2nd – Brian Westbrook (1) – 225*
3rd – Clinton Portis (1) – 235*
4th – Derek Anderson – 88*
5th – Torry Holt – 92
6th – Tony Gonzalez – 173*
7th – San Diego D/ST – 97*
8th – Santana Moss – 160*
9th – Shayne Graham – 63*
10th – Jon Kitna – 37
11th – Kenny Watson – 3
12th – DeAngelo Williams – 321*
13th – Ted Ginn Jr. – 107
14th – Ricky Williams – 110
15th – Sidney Rice – 33
16th – Amani Toomer – 76

5) Tony Allen (3rd overall pick)
TRP – 2195
TRPK – 1977
TSP – 1474
TBP – 721
TKP – 218
AFP – 1614
Difference – (+140)

Preseason Prediction: Will lose in first round of the consolation playoffs.

What I Said in September: “Brandon Jacobs in the fourth round? Steven Jackson as the third overall? Kevin Boss? Outside of Reggie Wayne, you have no one to play the other WR spot… The good news is I think Matt Hasselbeck and Hines Ward will each have excellent seasons. I also have wet dreams about the Minnesota defense (I need better wet dreams). Additionally, Aaron Rogers could potentially be a huge keeper steal (sixteenth round) when looking back at the draft at the end of the season.”

Thoughts: Tony lacked a top end player in the top half of his draft. None of his top eight draft picks scored over 250 points and only one cracked 200. His shrewd pickup of Aaron Rogers in the 16th round saved his season in terms of keeping him in the playoff hunt until the last week of the season. His 7-9-1 record is a perfect reflection of his draft.

Bold = Keeper
(#) = Consecutive times player has been kept
Round – Player – Points Scored
1st – Steven Jackson – 198*
2nd – Larry Johnson – 135*
3rd – Reggie Wayne (1) – 168*
4th – Brandon Jacobs – 210*
5th – Matt Hasselbeck (1) – 50
6th – Eli Manning – 194
7th – Hines Ward – 159*
8th – Lavernaues Coles – 126
9th – Minnesota D/ST – 133*
10th – Kevin Boss – 69
11th – Nick Folk – 96*
12th – Chris Chambers – 74
13th – Cowboys D/ST – 104
14th – Tony Scheffler – 77*
15th – Earnest Graham – 104
16th – Aaron Rogers – 298*

4) Ben Nielsen (6th Overall Pick)
TRP – 2157
TRPK – 1835
TSP – 1636
TBP – 521
TKP – 322
AFP – 1652
Difference – (+16)

Preseason Prediction: (I didn’t write one for me, but I’m assuming that it would have said I was going to win it all.)

What I Said in September: “I feel pretty good about my team (as if you couldn’t tell). I am confident my receivers are going to dominate this season. The combination of Houshmandzadeh and Braylon Edwards, with Greg Jennings at the flex, should serve me well. On the bench I have a potential breakout guy in Calvin Johnson and a this year’s Wes Welker in Anthony Gonzalez…While I don’t think Carson Palmer is going to be spectacular or win me any matchups this year, I do feel that he will not lose me any matchups and will be a consistent performer. Philip Rivers is a good option as a back-up…My biggest question is going to be who steps up fill in the second running back roll. Marion Barber will be a touchdown machine, and I’m not concerned about him. I also have his backup, Felix Jones, should something happen to Barber. As of now, Darren McFadden is my number two guy – but as a rookie, I really don’t know what I’m going to get in him. My other running back options include Jones, Steve Slaton and Rashard Mendenhall – all of whom are rookies. I figure one of either McFadden, Jones, Slaton or Mendenhall will be good.”

Thoughts: My draft finished higher than I thought it was. Barber missing the last month of the season, Carson Palmers season-ending injury, T.J. Houshmandzadeh’s non-existence, Darren McFadden’s injuries and the stupidity of drafting a tight end in the fifth round utterly destroyed my top five picks. I may arguably have the worst top five picks of any team in the draft in that I was the only team to not have a single top five pick score over 200 points. So, clearly, my rounds six through 16 picks need to be very solid – and they were. I had four picks 200-plus point players from round six to 16. Only Jeff can claim the same thing. More impressive is that only one of those players was a keeper (same as Jeff). I will forever wonder what could have been for the 2008 season if Barber, Palmer and McFadden had stayed healthy in addition to Edwards living up to his expectations. Had three of those four cracked the 200 point mark (as was expected and was not a stretch by any imagination), this would have been the best draft it the league. But it wasn’t.

Bold = Keeper
(#) = Consecutive times player has been kept
Round – Player – Points Scored
1st – Marion Barber – 192*
2nd – Carson Palmer – 34
3rd – T.J. Houshmandzadeh – 117
4th – Darren McFadden – 96
5th – Dallas Clark – 122*
6th – Calvin Johnson – 228*
7th – Anthony Gonzalez – 87
8th – Braylon Edwards (1) – 117*
9th – Felix Jones – 52
10th – JaMarcus Russell – 129
11th – Philip Rivers – 294*
12th – Greg Jennings (1) – 205*
13th – Steve Slaton – 239*
14th – Rashard Mendenhall – 6
15th – Green Bay D/ST – 119*
16th – Stephen Gostkowski – 120*

3) Erik Johnson (4th overall pick)
TRP – 2256
TRPK – 1702
TSP – 1523
TBP – 733
TKP – 554
AFP – 1745
Difference – (+222)

Preseason Prediction: Erik wins division and earns the two seed.

What I Said in September: “Erik’s draft is littered with guys who are either coming off of surgery, a serious injury or have an extensive injury history… Guys like Steve Smith, Kellen Winslow, Donovan McNabb, Adrian Peterson and Vernon Davis. There is also this: Peyton Manning, Willie Parker, Laurence Maroney and Marvin Harrison are all coming off a season ending injury or surgery; Reggie Bush, Steve Smith and Plaxico Burress all battled injuries last season that either caused them to miss games or negatively impact their performance in multiple games. This means 12 of Erik’s 16 draft picks have some kind of serious injury red flag…Of course, the good news for Erik is that his team probably has more upside from proven players than any other team – and Erik is the king of upside. The health of Willie Parker and Adrian Peterson will dictate how well this season goes for Erik.”

Thoughts: Erik split on the health aspect of his draft. Peyton Manning had a slow start, as did McNabb. Parker, Bush, Winslow and Davis all got hurt. Plaxico Burress shot himself. But Erik hit it big on three drafted guys: Steve Smith, Donovan McNabb and Roddy White. Those guys, the added solid players of Kevin Smith and LenDale White, in addition of having the best keeper combination (by far) in the league pushed him ahead of Tony and Ben in the rankings.

Bold = Keeper
(#) = Consecutive times player has been kept
Round – Player – Points Scored
1st – Peyton Manning (1) – 265*
2nd – Willie Parker – 124
3rd – Reggie Bush – 133
4th – Steve Smith – 218*
5th – Plaxico Burress – 70
6th – Kellen Winslow – 60*
7th – Laurence Maroney – 8
8th – Donovan McNabb – 246
9th – Adrian Peterson (1) – 289*
10th – Chicago D/ST – 137*
11th – Marvin Harrison – 89
12th – Kevin Smith – 171*
13th – Roddy White – 213*
14th – LenDale White – 170*
15th – Vernon Davis – 39
16th – Brady Quinn – 24
^Did not draft a kicker.

2) Andrew Wessley (8th overall pick)
TRP – 2371
TRPK – 2085
TSP – 1573
TBP – 753
TKP – 286
AFP – 1682
Difference – (+109)

Preseason Prediction: Will miss the playoffs and will finish last in the consolation bracket.

What I Said in September: “Let’s start with the positives: Drew Brees will have a solid season, as should Brandon Marshall; Jason Witten provides good value as a 12th rounder; Jonathan Stewart is a nice potential keeper. That’s about it…Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch are terrible first and second round picks...Other running backs include: Edgerrin James (hehehe…), Jonathan Stweart (good choice if this was 2010 – and it’s not), Rudi Johnson (the freaking Bengals cut him), DeShaun Foster (dead man walking)… Who is going to throw the ball to Larry Fitzgerald? If you answered Matt Leinart, you’re fucked. If you said Kurt Warner, you’re fucked. If you own Larry Fitzgerald, you’re double-fucked. I’m not saying Fitzgerald sucks, I’m only saying that you’re fucked. Other Receivers include: Santonio Holmes (I’d like him if the Steelers weren’t a run first offense), Roy Williams (Calvin Johnson is going to steal all his thunder), Lee Evans (when exactly has he had a good season?) and Brandon Marshall (a second tier receiver)…The massive hole at running back in addition to the lack of a top wide receiver is going to kill Andrew this season… I think.”

Thoughts: Looking back at Andrew’s draft, I disagree with his ranking at number two. But that is what the numbers say so I’m going to have to deal with it. I suppose there are two things that earned him this ranking. One would be that he did not bust on any on the players he was counting on going into the season. Larry Fitzgerald was better than I anticipated and Brandon Marshall was worse than Andrew anticipated, but the balance of the two was enough to get him through the season at wide receiver. Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch were not the top end running backs their draft positions would suggest they should have been, but they stayed relatively healthy and did not totally bomb in their production. The other thing would be that he got ridiculous production from the two quarterbacks he drafted. I know Andrew felt Drew Brees would be good this season, but I doubt he felt Brees was going to be as good as he was (he threw a touchdown in every game this season but one – the Chiefs game… I don’t get that either). Additionally, Jay Cutler had a ridiculous season and will be his best keeper prospect. But beyond the Cutler pick, Andrew did nothing in rounds five through 16, but he didn’t bomb on guys he was counting on. Ultimately, Andrew nailed his first four picks, got enough from the back end of his draft and had the right people stay healthy to steal the second spot in the draft rankings.

Bold = Keeper
(#) = Consecutive times player has been kept
Round – Player – Points Scored
1st – Frank Gore – 189*
2nd – Marshawn Lynch – 188*
3rd – Drew Brees – 355*
4th – Larry Fitzgerald – 251*
5th – Edgerrin James – 78
6th – Santonio Holmes – 105
7th – Roy Williams – 49
8th – Jonathan Stewart – 147*
9th – Lee Evans – 139
10th – Jay Cutler – 307
11th – Rudi Johnson – 36
12th – Jason Witten (1) – 124*
13th – Brandon Marshall (1) – 162*
14th – DeShaun Foster – 39
15th – Jacksonville D/ST – 71*
16th – Phil Dawson – 86*

1) Jeff Weseloh (5th overall pick)
TRP – 2388
TRPK – 1919
TSP – 1498
TBP – 890
TKP – 469
AFP – 1643
Difference – (+145)

Preseason Prediction: Will make the playoffs as a three seed.

What I Said in September: “Jeff has a solid receiving core in Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Donald Driver and Patrick Crayton…Weseloh’s big guy will be Tony Romo, who I think will be the “2007 Tom Brady” of 2008. Not to say he’s going to break Brady’s record or anything, but I think Romo will have more than 40 touchdown passes this season.”

Thoughts: You get no love from me since I drafted your team. Nice keeper selections though.

Bold = Keeper
(#) = Consecutive times player has been kept
Round – Player – Points Scored
1st – Randy Moss – 181*
2nd – Ryan Grant – 167*
3rd – Willis McGahee – 127
4th – Jamal Lewis – 126
5th – Andre Johnson (1) – 243*
6th – Donald Driver – 138*
7th – Jake Delhomme – 166
8th – Matt Forte – 244*
9th – Joey Galloway – 11
10th – Tony Romo (1) – 226*
11th – Patrick Crayton – 77
12th – David Garrard – 216
13th – Julius Jones – 86
14th – JT O'Sullivan – 81
15th – Tennessee D/ST – 181*
16th – David Akers – 118*
^ Did not draft a tight end.

Tier Draft Rankings

1st Tier - Score
Jeff – 12
Andrew – 13
Erik – 16

2nd Tier – Score
Ben – 21
Tony – 24

3rd Tier – Score
Jason – 28
Joel – 29

4th Tier – Score
Chris – 37

Total Roster Points (Draft)
1) Jeff – 2388
2) Andrew – 2371
3) Erik – 2256
4) Tony – 2195
5) Ben – 2157
6) Joel – 1997
7) Jason – 2000
8) Chris – 1815

Total Roster Points Minus Keepers
1 Andrew – 2085
2 Tony – 1977
3 Jeff – 1919
4 Ben – 1835
5 Erik – 1702
6 Joel – 1666
7 Chris – 1589
8 Jason – 1540

Total Starter Points (Drafted Starters)
1) Ben – 1636
2) Andrew – 1573
3) Jason – 1542
4) Erik – 1523
5) Jeff – 1498
6) Tony – 1474
7) Chris – 1472
8) Joel – 1424

Total Bench Points (Drafted Depth)
1) Jeff – 890
2) Andrew – 753
3) Erik – 733
4) Tony – 721
5) Joel – 573
6) Ben – 521
7) Jason – 458
8) Chris – 343

Actual Fantasy Points (Regular Season)
1) Erik – 1745
2) Andrew – 1682
3) Chris – 1670
4) Jason – 1660
5) Ben – 1652
6) Jeff – 1643
7) Tony – 1614
8) Joel – 1395

Difference (Between Draft and Regular Season)
1) Erik – 222
2) Chris – 198
3) Jeff – 145
4) Tony – 140
5) Jason – 118
6) Andrew – 109
7) Ben – 16
8) Joel – (-29)

Ranking First Round Picks
1) Peyton Manning (265 – Erik – 4th Pick)
2) LDT (223 – Chris – 7th Pick)
3) Steven Jackson (198 – Tony – 3rd Pick)
4) Marion Barber (192 – Ben – 6th Pick)
5) Frank Gore (189 – Andrew – 8th Pick)
6) Randy Moss (181 – Jeff – 5th Pick)
7) Terrell Owens (180 – Jason – 2nd Pick)
8) Joseph Addai (115 – Joel – 1st Pick)

Best Draft Pick By Round
First Round – Peyton Manning (Erik)
Second Round – Brian Westbrook (Jason – Keeper)
Third Round – Drew Brees (Andrew)
Fourth Round – Thomas Jones (Joel)
Fifth Round – Andre Johnson (Jeff – Keeper)
Sixth Round – Calvin Johnson (Ben)
Seventh Round – Jake Delhomme (Jeff)
Eighth Round – Donovan McNabb (Erik)
Ninth Round – Adrian Peterson (Erik)
Tenth Round – Jay Cutler (Andrew)
Eleventh Round – Philip Rivers (Ben)
Twelfth Round – DeAngelo Williams (Jason)
Thirteenth Round – Steve Slaton (Ben)
Fourteenth Round – LenDale White (Erik)
Fifteenth Round – Tennessee Def/ST (Jeff)
Sixteenth Round – Aaron Rogers (Tony)

Top 10 Picks (minus Keepers)
1) DeAngelo Williams (321 – Jason – Round 12)
2) Aaron Rogers (298 – Tony – Round 16)
3) Jay Cutler (307 – Andrew – Round 10)
4) Steve Slaton (239 – Ben – Round 13)
5) Philip Rivers (294 – Ben – Round 11)
6) Matt Forte (244 – Jeff – Round 8)
7) Calvin Johnson (228 – Ben – Round 6)
8) Roddy White (213 – Erik – Round 13)
9) Drew Brees (355 – Andrew – Round 3)
10) Donovan McNabb (246 – Erik – Round 8)

Ranking the 2008 Keeper Selections by Total Fantasy Points
1) Adrian Peterson – 289 (9th Round – Erik)
2) Peyton Manning – 265 (1st Round – Erik)
3) Andre Johnson – 243 (5th Round – Jeff)
4) Clinton Portis – 235 (3rd Round – Jason)
5) Tony Romo – 226 (10th Round – Jeff)
6) Brian Westbrook – 225 (2nd Round – Jason)
7) LaDanian Tomlinson – 223 (1st Round – Chris)
8) Greg Jennings – 205 (12th Round – Ben)
9) Ben Roethlisberger – 183 (11th Round – Joel)
10) Reggie Wayne – 168 (3rd Round – Tony)
11) Brandon Marshall – 162 (13th Round – Andrew)
12) Wes Welker – 148 (15th Round – Joel)
13) Jason Witten – 124 (12th Round – Andrew)
14) Braylon Edwards – 117 (8th Round – Ben)
15) Matt Hasselbeck – 50 (5th Round – Tony)
16) Tom Brady – 3 (2nd Round – Chris)

Keeper Rankings
1) Erik (554)
2) Jeff (469)
3) Jason (460)
4) Joel (331)
5) Ben (322)
6) Andrew (286)
7) Chris (226)
8) Tony (218)